Now these young people have changed Alexandria, they brought businesses to the area and made it more desirable. Now the people buying there have more money and the area has transformed and the investment made by these young GenXs worked out well for them. That is not a Ponzi. It is a real change in value.
This is true to a degree, but eventually, daggy inner city areas that become trendy attract the big money and that is where the increase in value comes from. Notting Hill in London is a famous example.
In the context of Perth, I can think of a few areas that are actually undervalued even though I am calling a top (June 2014) in the current market.
These are areas that have not such great reputations but on a pure location basis, could improve in price drastically in future.
I will keep them under my hat for now but they are not hard to work out for yourself anyway.
I still see a fall in Perth prices overall and I would expect it within six months.
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be rising.
This is true to a degree, but eventually, daggy inner city areas that become trendy attract the big money and that is where the increase in value comes from. Notting Hill in London is a famous example.
In the context of Perth, I can think of a few areas that are actually undervalued even though I am calling a top (June 2014) in the current market.
These are areas that have not such great reputations but on a pure location basis, could improve in price drastically in future.
I will keep them under my hat for now but they are not hard to work out for yourself anyway.
I still see a fall in Perth prices overall and I would expect it within six months.
Are you predicting falls across the market or just falls in selected places (as we saw in the downturn that finished a couple of years ago). For instance the top end of the market is still way down from peak. Also are you predicting a short term fall in prices or a long drawn out recession? What kind of drop are you expecting ? 10% or more than that.
Rivervale would be one of my picks on a 10 year investment plan in Perth. Great location and lots of government spending plus new units and hotels. IMHO, the old units are cheap as chips for such a central location.
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993 The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
Are you predicting falls across the market or just falls in selected places (as we saw in the downturn that finished a couple of years ago). For instance the top end of the market is still way down from peak. Also are you predicting a short term fall in prices or a long drawn out recession? What kind of drop are you expecting ? 10% or more than that.
Rivervale would be one of my picks on a 10 year investment plan in Perth. Great location and lots of government spending plus new units and hotels. IMHO, the old units are cheap as chips for such a central location.
You rarely get uniform price falls just like you don't get uniform increases.
A slump overall can see some areas actually increase in value.
I reckon the biggest drops will be in the plus $600k area simply because a lot of these are owned by highly leveraged FIFO workers.
I know a few who couldn't earn $70k in the city who are/were earning $150k up north and have bought into the luxury beach lifestyle with the big house and boat etc.
In my own experience of recessions, the rich generally don't get hurt and the poor working man doesn't notice the difference.
The ones who see the biggest reduction in pay are the executives, middle managers and professional workers who's services were in most demand during the boom period.
Perth also has the almost unique situation where during a FIFO boom, poor working people can suddenly become middle class (before being dumped back into low paying jobs).
These people will have the biggest mortgages and will be the ones who see the greatest fall in their incomes.
The thing to remember with property is that it is a very illiquid market. Owner occupiers with manageable mortgages are not impacted if prices drop. They just don't sell. If they need to move house, the house they want to buy will have dropped anyway.
The ones who are forced to sell are those who are overstretched or are moving away.
These types of sellers will discount.
A strange thing can happen in downturns in that big numbers of high value but heavily discounted properties can actually skew the median price higher or leave it unchanged. This can give the illusion that everything is OK when in fact it isn't.
I think that is what we are seeing right now.
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be rising.
You rarely get uniform price falls just like you don't get uniform increases.
A slump overall can see some areas actually increase in value.
I reckon the biggest drops will be in the plus $600k area simply because a lot of these are owned by highly leveraged FIFO workers.
I know a few who couldn't earn $70k in the city who are/were earning $150k up north and have bought into the luxury beach lifestyle with the big house and boat etc.
In my own experience of recessions, the rich generally don't get hurt and the poor working man doesn't notice the difference.
The ones who see the biggest reduction in pay are the executives, middle managers and professional workers who's services were in most demand during the boom period.
Perth also has the almost unique situation where during a FIFO boom, poor working people can suddenly become middle class (before being dumped back into low paying jobs).
These people will have the biggest mortgages and will be the ones who see the greatest fall in their incomes.
The thing to remember with property is that it is a very illiquid market. Owner occupiers with manageable mortgages are not impacted if prices drop. They just don't sell. If they need to move house, the house they want to buy will have dropped anyway.
The ones who are forced to sell are those who are overstretched or are moving away.
These types of sellers will discount.
A strange thing can happen in downturns in that big numbers of high value but heavily discounted properties can actually skew the median price higher or leave it unchanged. This can give the illusion that everything is OK when in fact it isn't.
I think that is what we are seeing right now.
Houses are the most illiquid asset there is.
Most assets I can sell tommorow and get cash tommorow, not so with property.
Most assets I can sell tommorow and get cash tommorow, not so with property.
check history of sales for residential properties. you would be surprised how often homes are bought and sold. you often see homes bought and sold 3 or 4 times in 10 years time. you don't make money if you sell after 3 years. but the government does. property flipping is good for the government.
Comment of the century. Good to see I haven't missed much ignoring the blonde bitch. Although now she's on arse wiping duties I dare say her posting frequency will decrease, ( god I hope so).
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
@Blondie Girl don't worry about that old cranky misogynist. He has problems with all the women on the site regardless of age or beauty.
That was a seriously nasty post and it degrades him not you.
You have every right to be on this forum and lots of us love ya honey, just ignore the wee shite.
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993 The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
Yes Blondie, it is me. I said on Friday that I will not post as MMM anymore , because there are now to many impersonating me. I only noticed this morning ttlhat some desperate bull troll had posed as me on Saturday again and posted a thread in the lounge. You responded to it, but it was not me, Herbie the clown respondedtoo.
So the bulls have impersonated me on four or five occasions and the bears have impersonated me on two or three occasions that I have seen.
So for now I will post as guest and sometimes as nelson. The reason I post as nelson is because frank castle has impersonated me as MMM and his sock puppet is Nelson, so Im just rubbing franks face in things sometimes, like the massive rent drops shown in the link.
As for subiaco , I only know it because you or others have mentioned it, so its been a good little show and tell for you all.
So what do you think now blondie, rents crashing , unemployment hit 6.4% today, and they are the played down bullshit figures and interest rates dropping again next month.
You bulls just do not get it. Your are at least realistic blondie and I commend you for that. But the others, like mike or skamy or bp simply REFUSE to ackowledge reality. Unbelievable. It shows the extent of the bulls delusion and what we will still have to put up with for a little while longer.
Ooooh man
Why can't you just register?
Truly nuts ......
those
8 Aug 2014, 02:04 AM
Lol... good one.
Yeah My bad...
newjez
8 Aug 2014, 06:14 AM
Comment of the century. Good to see I haven't missed much ignoring the blonde bitch. Although now she's on arse wiping duties I dare say her posting frequency will decrease, ( god I hope so).
No
I have better things to do than post each & every day on a forum.
Newjerk? can you try harder than dig up another person's blog. My first promo was with Billabong and my name in English is modified with a T, am Perth born but also lived in Sydney to make my $$ It's Absolutely Fabulous if it includes brilliant locations, & high calibre tenants..what more does one want? Understand the power of the two "P"" or be financially challenged Even better when there is family who are property mad and one is born in some entitlements.....Understand that beautiful women are the exhibitionists we crave attention, whilst hot blooded men are the voyeurs ... A stunning woman can command and takes pleasure in being noticed. Seems not too many understand what it means to hold and own props and get threatened by those who do. Banks are considered to be law abiding and & rather boring places yeah not true . A bank balance sheet will show capital is dwarfed by their liabilities this means when a portions of loans is falling its problems for the bank.
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