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Australia's coming jobs boom; A boom in in a sector which is one of our largest employers is going to create a lot of jobs.
Topic Started: 5 Aug 2014, 09:54 AM (8,992 Views)
John Frum
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peter fraser
6 Aug 2014, 07:47 AM
Anything that we still manufacture will become more competitive and the imported equivalent will become less competitive. Exactly what level the dollar needs to fall to before our goods are cheaper will depend on many factors, but as our goods become more competitive we will sell more and import less.

I think the industries that will get an immediate boost are those like tourism and education where the falling dollar will have an immediate effect. Other industries like film production will take longer to revive, car production may never make a comeback. It will differ from industry to industry.
You're massively misunderstanding economies of scale and the global market in general if you think we will just all become butchers and bakers and candlestickmakers when we rebalance. We need to keep both the exports and the high currency in place to maintain our position. Mass produced Furniture or Cars for a local market just won't cut it.

The trick is to add value to the natural resources we have in abundance, rather than just shipping it out and being at the whim of another country's infrastructure needs. Refer to Germany pre-euro as a case in point.
Edited by John Frum, 6 Aug 2014, 10:19 AM.
"It were not best that we should all think alike; it is difference of opinion that makes horse races." - Mark Twain on why he avoids discussing house prices over at MacroBusiness.
"Buy land, they're not making any more of it." - Georgist Land Tax proponent Mark Twain laughing in his grave at humourless idiots like skamy that continually use this quip to justify housing bubbles.
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skamy
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John Frum
6 Aug 2014, 06:32 AM
Oh dear - looks like Mr Carr might need to return to the back of his envelope and do a quick rethink:

http://m.smh.com.au/business/mining-and-resources/mining-gloom-deepens-with-no-bottom-in-sight-20140805-100m7r.html

Ouch! Doom and gloom well and truly in control now.

Just the high end stuff? Or Ikea flat packs as well?
This is in NSW, do you seriously believe that this news will send investors running for the doors in Sydney?

Do you think this doom and gloom will have any effect at all on sentiment in Sydney?

Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993
The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
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SittingOnDeFence
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skamy
5 Aug 2014, 06:06 PM
There is still a mining boom - record exports. There was a mining investment boom but that is tailing off. I am just saying I don't expect that to impact Perth property prices as they are coming off such a low and are only now reaching prices last seen years ago.
I reckon you think that young people today who are whinging about not being able to buy a house need to take a leaf out of your own book, from when you were young and starting off - work hard and save up then get on your knees to Mr Bank Manager and beg for a mortgage.

Times have changed - Mr Bank Manager is gone and you can get your finance direct from the builder now if you like, or apply online even!

Heck - I can even google it now and I can get $1000 loan no questions asked from some dodgy website.

Cheap money is driving everything it seems - I don't think price of houses is gone crazy (yet) but the reasons for prices rises are getting thin on the ground
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o2sd
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peter fraser
5 Aug 2014, 11:30 PM
We offer both goods and services and clearly they will become more competitive as our dollar falls. I really don't have to nominate any particular item or service.
As I suspected, you can't name one.
newjez
6 Aug 2014, 06:06 AM
Furniture.
It would have to be pine furniture. Particle board is all made in China now, and hardwood is so expensive it would not be any cheaper even if the dollar dropped to 50c.
Edited by o2sd, 6 Aug 2014, 12:23 PM.
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skamy
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SittingOnDeFence
6 Aug 2014, 11:49 AM
I reckon you think that young people today who are whinging about not being able to buy a house need to take a leaf out of your own book, from when you were young and starting off - work hard and save up then get on your knees to Mr Bank Manager and beg for a mortgage.

Times have changed - Mr Bank Manager is gone and you can get your finance direct from the builder now if you like, or apply online even!

Heck - I can even google it now and I can get $1000 loan no questions asked from some dodgy website.

Cheap money is driving everything it seems - I don't think price of houses is gone crazy (yet) but the reasons for prices rises are getting thin on the ground
Actually sitting-on-the fence The advice to buy a home and get of the rental money drain ASAP is as good today as ever. I would be lying if I said otherwise. There have been many many times in my life when I though property prices were too high and unsustainable, but the property market did not care about that.

The property market does not care whether Sydney gets more like London with only the extremely rich able to buy in the good locations and the rest of the population commuting in from villages miles outside of London.

There are two main reason worldwide that are predictors of price rises, growing population and growing wealth. Most of Australia has experienced both these things.

The fact that the banks profit out of that is just the way our monetary system works, I don't see it changing do you?

That eejit "don't buy now" guy has been hoping that if young people stay out of the market that bankers will suffer. He has been spruiking this nonsense for years. He is just a guilty, if not more so, of politicizing the family home. He and his ilk caused a backlog of building and buying and now those young people who he abused as his political fodder are facing a nightmare trying to buy a home for themselves as prices play catch up.

Older people like myself wish for a stable market not booming nor busting and we care about our children's future.

If you prefer to believe the cheap house fantasy or the "prices will never rise again" fairytale that is your call. However, I am just telling you guys I have heard this nonsense over and over as unscrupulous people sell Armageddon to the young.
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993
The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
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Massive
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Quote:
 
If you prefer to believe the cheap house fantasy or the "prices will never rise again" fairytale that is your call. However, I am just telling you guys I have heard this nonsense over and over as unscrupulous people sell Armageddon to the young.
Likewise, most people raised in Perth have heard the cries of spruikers to "buy now" as at the end of every mining boom just before the city becomes a quiet backwater town for another decade - with constant stories suggesting that the boom is only just starting …


Quote:
 
The advice to buy a home and get of the rental money drain ASAP is as good today as ever

Rents are going down (edit: in Perth) and conditions likely to become more favourable as landlords try to keep their tenants so it wont be too much of a drain, affording young buyers more time to get things in order and make a well considered purchase.

IMO stories like yours inciting youth to get in as quickly as possible ( im guessing on 5% deposits etc) in a slowing/declining market are far more predatory.
Edited by Massive, 6 Aug 2014, 01:23 PM.
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newjez
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Massive
6 Aug 2014, 01:15 PM
Likewise, most people raised in Perth have heard the cries of spruikers to "buy now" as at the end of every mining boom just before the city becomes a quiet backwater town for another decade - with constant stories suggesting that the boom is only just starting …




Rents are going down (edit: in Perth) and conditions likely to become more favourable as landlords try to keep their tenants so it wont be too much of a drain, affording young buyers more time to get things in order and make a well considered purchase.

IMO stories like yours inciting youth to get in as quickly as possible ( im guessing on 5% deposits etc) in a slowing/declining market are far more predatory.
+1

It really is starting to smell like Hansel and gretal here. Its not that the young are canny, but there are limits to how far they can stretch.
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
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skamy
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Massive
6 Aug 2014, 01:15 PM
Likewise, most people raised in Perth have heard the cries of spruikers to "buy now" as at the end of every mining boom just before the city becomes a quiet backwater town for another decade - with constant stories suggesting that the boom is only just starting …




Rents are going down (edit: in Perth) and conditions likely to become more favourable as landlords try to keep their tenants so it wont be too much of a drain, affording young buyers more time to get things in order and make a well considered purchase.

IMO stories like yours inciting youth to get in as quickly as possible ( im guessing on 5% deposits etc) in a slowing/declining market are far more predatory.
Massive I would never ever persuade someone to buy who did not want to buy. What I am saying is that IF people want to own a home buy when you can afford to and not based on doomers or boomers advice. It is so hard to pick the bottom or the top.

All I can do is let people know what has served me well and try to open eyes when I see young people getting scammed.

@NewJez :bye: :bye:
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993
The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
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Massive
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skamy
6 Aug 2014, 02:21 PM
Massive I would never ever persuade someone to buy who did not want to buy. What I am saying is that IF people want to own a home buy when you can afford to and not based on doomers or boomers advice. It is so hard to pick the bottom or the top.

All I can do is let people know what has served me well and try to open eyes when I see young people getting scammed.

@NewJez :bye: :bye:
there is no need to pick bottoms or tops... but there is no reason to get in ASAP.... actually i can find more reasons to wait than to buy right now ...

im honestly of the opinion the only young people being scammed right now are the ones who are being encouraged to leverage up for their PPOR right now, or to get their first IP. The Perth economy is right at the turning point of declining wages due to the cessation of mining investment, reduced migration and will see less pressure from the high salaried FIFO influence on the local market that was a major cause of the surge in the first place.
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Perthite
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skamy
6 Aug 2014, 11:08 AM
This is in NSW, do you seriously believe that this news will send investors running for the doors in Sydney?

Do you think this doom and gloom will have any effect at all on sentiment in Sydney?
Incorrect again. Ausdrill has premises based in Canningvale. WA.

It was always going to be touch and go if they survived. Especially after Boart Longyear moved their drill manufacturing to Poland.

Shares have been dumped.

http://www.watoday.com.au/business/mining-and-resources/ausdrill-hit-by-writedown-of-up-to-90-million-20140806-100waz.html

What part of 'severe downturn' can't you understand?

They are bleeding cash.
Edited by Perthite, 6 Aug 2014, 02:50 PM.
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