They'll cut out the wasteful shit like new car every year, twice a year overseas holiday, 5 star restaurant four nights a week
They'll keep paying the mortgage
And you think this will have no effect on the economy?
Massive
5 Aug 2014, 06:57 PM
wage growth for mining peaked around 2007/2008 - according to ABS
you can see mining salary growth started taking off in 2000-2002 with a short-lived dip in 2003 -how does that rapid growth in salaries from 2002-2007 relate to housing i wonder ? edit.. added growth chart for house prices..
another chart for fun.
I really don't think you could have painted a clearer picture. If she's too stupid to understand, (she is pretty think, land tripling in a year and all that), then its her loss.
skamy
5 Aug 2014, 07:48 PM
Let me try again. What the doomsters are trying to say is that WA has had a fortune spent on investment yet will find itself in a worse economic situation than before the money was spent, it is clearly nonsensical.
House prices in Perth are at the same as they were in 2007 BEFORE the huge investment boom.
Now we have MORE jobs than 2007 due to bigger mines and more exports and more royalties. Why would house prices decline below the 2007 prices?
We are also playing house construction and city building catch up as these sectors declined during the GFC.
Perth is not Darwin, Prices did not boom during the investment boom, quite the opposite.
Unemployment is still very low in WA to get any kind of drop in house prices people need to be really stressed. People don't just sell their homes at a loss or at a low price for no reason. Unemployment will not be a problem here - read the article, it is a done deal the construction is in planning and beyond. The absolute worst that will happen is a few months stagnation as the economy changes by mid next year it will be clear that Perth and WA are benefiting from the investment money spent.
When iron ore and our dollar fall employment will become much stronger. Almost everything you wish for will strengthen the economy.
Stronger yes.
Handsomely paid no.
We need big wages to sustain big house prices.
"It were not best that we should all think alike; it is difference of opinion that makes horse races." - Mark Twain on why he avoids discussing house prices over at MacroBusiness. "Buy land, they're not making any more of it." - Georgist Land Tax proponent Mark Twain laughing in his grave at humourless idiots like skamy that continually use this quip to justify housing bubbles.
First, the labour market is soft. Unemployment is tracking at decade highs.
And labour underutilisation is tracking at levels not seen since the height of the GFC and the early 2000s.
Moreover, wages growth is running at the lowest level on record (negative in real terms), which necessarily implies a weak labour market:
Second, the claims that mining did not add many jobs and is not a significant employer are false, and are debunked by a report released last year by the RBA, which revealed that mining-related activities accounted for 10% of total employment in 2011-12, with mining-related employment rising sharply since the mid-2000s:
“We estimate that the resource economy accounted for around 18 per cent of gross value added (GVA) in 2011/12, which is double its share of the economy in 2003/04. Of this, the resource extraction sector – which we define to include the mining industry and resource-specific manufacturing – directly accounted for 11½ per cent of GVA. The remaining 6½ per cent of GVA can be attributed to the value added of industries that provide inputs to resource extraction and investment, such as business services, construction, transport and manufacturing. This ‘resource-related’ activity is significantly more labour intensive than resource extraction, accounting for an estimated 6¾ per cent of total employment in 2011/12, compared with 3¼ per cent for the resource extraction sector…
The share of total employment accounted for by the resource economy is estimated to have doubled since the mid 2000s. Around two-fifths of this growth reflects the expansion in resource investment, which has increased demand for labour in resource-related construction and other industries that provide inputs to these investment projects…
As noted above, roughly two-thirds of mining-related employment in 2011-12 was investment-related – jobs that will mostly disappear once the large resource projects are finished.
Carr might like to compare mining construction against residential construction, and then think long and hard about his statements above.
Blind Freddy can see that residential construction is hopelessly outgunned by the pending sharp drop-off in mining investment, which will intensify once the large LNG projects in Gladstone, Western Australia and the Northern Territory are completed over the next few years, taking with them many thousands of jobs.
And of course, there is also the shuttering of Australia’s automotive assembly industry by 2017, which will likely cause the loss of tens-of-thousands of assembly and component manufacturing jobs.
Finally, let’s not forget that dwelling approvals appear to already have peaked (see next chart), which will likely lead to a peaking of dwelling construction in the second half of 2015, just as the large resource projects are coming to completion.
Sure, there is some reasonable news on the dwelling construction front, but this is more than offset by the negative news surrounding mining investment and manufacturing.
In short, Carr’s panglosian view on jobs is not justified.
Peter, I know its late in the evening, but where and how in the fuck will 'employment become much stronger'..........?
Have you been keeping up with current events? you crack us all up without fail!
lull - when the dollar falls are lot more opportunity will be opened up. The opportunities that the mining boom crushed, but some industries will take time. Others will be immediate.
As John Frum pointed out our lower dollar will reduce our ability to buy imported goods.
lull - when the dollar falls are lot more opportunity will be opened up. The opportunities that the mining boom crushed, but some industries will take time. Others will be immediate.
As John Frum pointed out our lower dollar will reduce our ability to buy imported goods.
This claim is often made, but never elucidated with details.
Can you name one manufactured good that will become relatively cheaper (to it's imported competition) when the exchange rate falls?
Can you name one manufactured good that will become relatively cheaper (to it's imported competition) when the exchange rate falls?
We offer both goods and services and clearly they will become more competitive as our dollar falls. I really don't have to nominate any particular item or service.
Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
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