Welcome Guest [Log In] [Register]


Reply
Australia's coming jobs boom; A boom in in a sector which is one of our largest employers is going to create a lot of jobs.
Topic Started: 5 Aug 2014, 09:54 AM (8,995 Views)
Massive
Default APF Avatar


skamy
5 Aug 2014, 06:06 PM
Perth property prices as they are coming off such a low and are only now reaching prices last seen years ago.
oh dear...
it was just over 10 years ago the Perth median broke $200k mark, and now sitting just shy of $550k... i would hardly call that "coming off a low"
skamy
5 Aug 2014, 06:06 PM
Australia now has much larger mines and these will employ more people and generate more profits for our mining companies and royalties for or governments for years to come.
now that they have been built they will now employ less people on lower wages to share the profits amongst fewer residents.

typically companies don't buy houses. wage earners do.. if their wages decrease their ability to support rising prices diminishes..

Quote:
 
There is still a mining boom - record exports. There was a mining investment boom but that is tailing off. I am just saying I don't expect that to impact Perth property prices as they are coming off such a low and are only now reaching prices last seen years ago.


the mining investment boom is what brought the jobs... yes, the state will eventually balance its books from the returns, which will help long term, but for the immediate future, it appears there will be less high paying jobs about - with a likely decline in immigration. Both affect the demand side on house prices on the downside.
Edited by Massive, 5 Aug 2014, 06:26 PM.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
skamy
Member Avatar


Perthite
5 Aug 2014, 04:11 PM
Essentially they expect building an extra 4000 dwellings annually in WA will replace mega projects plus new ore mines etc.

CAPEX is forecast to fall 170 billion by ABS.

Not to mention the austerity of the Rio and BHP who have trimmed tens of billions from their operations.

It's laughable.

People pushing this line are either bad at maths or bullshit artist shills pushing an agenda.
You are making the same mistake again total Australia CAPEX is not even $170bn ya silly

Quote:
 
MINING

The trend estimate for Mining decreased 0.2% (-$55m) in the March quarter 2014. Equipment, plant and machinery decreased by 10.4% (-$237m) and buildings and structures increased by 0.8% (+$171m). The seasonally adjusted estimate for Mining decreased by 8.7% (-$1,967m) in the March quarter 2014. Buildings and structures decreased by 10.0% (-$2,037m) and equipment, plant and machinery increased by 3.3% (+$70m) in seasonally adjusted terms.
.......
MINING

Estimate 6 for Mining capital expenditure for 2013-14 is $95,374 million. This is 2.3% lower (-$2,213m) than Estimate 6 for 2012-13. Estimate 6 is 7.0% lower (-$7,154m) than Estimate 5 for 2013-14. Buildings and structures is 7.9% lower (-$7,294m) and equipment, plant and machinery is 1.4% higher (+$140m) than Estimate 5 for 2013-14.

Estimate 2 for Mining capital expenditure for 2014-15 is $79,956 million. This is 21.2% lower (-$21,526m) than Estimate 2 for 2013-14. Estimate 2 is 7.8% higher (+$5,757m) than Estimate 1 for 2014-15. Buildings and structures is 7.1% higher (+$4,661m) and equipment, plant and machinery is 13.1% higher (+$1,096m) than Estimate 1 for 2014-15. http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Latestproducts/5625.0Main%20Features2March%202014?opendocument&tabname=Summary&prodno=5625.0&issue=March%202014&num=&view=

Massive
5 Aug 2014, 05:35 PM
im not sure if some here realise it was never really a question of if you could find a job for every laid off person in the mines... but if they are moving into positions that are essentially half the salary, how does that help demand for increased housing prices at all ?

houses with existing mortgages will get stressed / pressured to downsize and new households will have lower budgets. those who came for high salaries are likely to pull up stumps and take the cash back to their families, or settle for simpler lifestyle in Perth waiting on next boom.

I've yet to see any evidence of this playing out any other way over coming years. I thought perhaps government would inject capital to encourage growth but so far they have only been focusssed on trophy projects along the Swan waterfront and are now crying the budget is fucked because iron ore has dropped more sharply than predicted.
The state don't need do more Massive, there will be plenty of work once it all get going.

Big wages were made during the mining investment boom BUT house prices never rose to match these inflated wages. Thus it is very unlikely that they will fall, these prices were maintained on much lower wages back in 2007. The other thing to remember is that other industries suffered during the GFC eg tourism, home construction, wine exports, retail etc etc.

This negativity around the slowing of the mining investment boom is the last hurrah of the doom spruikers who have been calling doom on the Perth market since 2007. The market did suffer, many people lost money and house prices dropped severely particularly the high end market and regional prices. Doomsters were not happy with these falls they wanted more and now they are dreaming still that they will get better bargains than they did in 2012, it is a fantasy.




Edited by skamy, 5 Aug 2014, 06:44 PM.
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993
The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Massive
Default APF Avatar


skamy
5 Aug 2014, 06:29 PM
Big wages were made during the mining investment boom BUT house prices never rose to match these inflated wages. Thus it is very unlikely that they will fall, these prices were maintained on much lower wages back in 2007. The other thing to remember is that other industries suffered during the GFC eg tourism, home construction, wine exports, retail etc etc.



wage growth for mining peaked around 2007/2008 - according to ABS

you can see mining salary growth started taking off in 2000-2002 with a short-lived dip in 2003 -how does that rapid growth in salaries from 2002-2007 relate to housing i wonder ?
edit.. added growth chart for house prices..

Posted Image

Posted Image

Posted Image

another chart for fun.
Posted Image
Edited by Massive, 5 Aug 2014, 07:45 PM.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
skamy
Member Avatar


Massive
5 Aug 2014, 06:21 PM
oh dear...
it was just over 10 years ago the Perth median broke $200k mark, and now sitting just shy of $550k... i would hardly call that "coming off a low"

now that they have been built they will now employ less people on lower wages to share the profits amongst fewer residents.

typically companies don't buy houses. wage earners do.. if their wages decrease their ability to support rising prices diminishes..




the mining investment boom is what brought the jobs... yes, the state will eventually balance its books from the returns, which will help long term, but for the immediate future, it appears there will be less high paying jobs about - with a likely decline in immigration. Both affect the demand side on house prices on the downside.
Let me try again.
What the doomsters are trying to say is that WA has had a fortune spent on investment yet will find itself in a worse economic situation than before the money was spent, it is clearly nonsensical.


House prices in Perth are at the same as they were in 2007 BEFORE the huge investment boom.

Now we have MORE jobs than 2007 due to bigger mines and more exports and more royalties. Why would house prices decline below the 2007 prices?

We are also playing house construction and city building catch up as these sectors declined during the GFC.

Perth is not Darwin, Prices did not boom during the investment boom, quite the opposite.

Unemployment is still very low in WA to get any kind of drop in house prices people need to be really stressed. People don't just sell their homes at a loss or at a low price for no reason. Unemployment will not be a problem here - read the article, it is a done deal the construction is in planning and beyond. The absolute worst that will happen is a few months stagnation as the economy changes by mid next year it will be clear that Perth and WA are benefiting from the investment money spent.

Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993
The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Massive
Default APF Avatar


skamy
5 Aug 2014, 07:48 PM
Let me try again.
What the doomsters are trying to say is that WA has had a fortune spent on investment yet will find itself in a worse economic situation than before the money was spent, it is clearly nonsensical.


House prices in Perth are at the same as they were in 2007 BEFORE the huge investment boom.

Now we have MORE jobs than 2007 due to bigger mines and more exports and more royalties. Why would house prices decline below the 2007 prices?

We are also playing house construction and city building catch up as these sectors declined during the GFC.

Perth is not Darwin, Prices did not boom during the investment boom, quite the opposite.

Unemployment is still very low in WA to get any kind of drop in house prices people need to be really stressed. People don't just sell their homes at a loss or at a low price for no reason. Unemployment will not be a problem here - read the article, it is a done deal the construction is in planning and beyond. The absolute worst that will happen is a few months stagnation as the economy changes by mid next year it will be clear that Perth and WA are benefiting from the investment money spent.
its not about number of jobs... its about salaries.. the bank doesnt give you access to credit based on how many jobs are in your suburb.. they give you credit based on how much you earn... ( and you can see the correlation of salary increase rate to house price increase rate )

when the high paying mining jobs dry up and everyone goes back to trade jobs on half the money, how will they be able to purchase the same valued homes ? how will those that were holding IO IP's continue their repayments if they hadnt planned for a decline in salaries ?

Now not saying prices will drop ( though they may in real terms ) but unless there is evidence of median income holding up as mining invesment winds down i cant see the same upwards pressure on housing prices in Perth for immediate future as has existed in the previous decade. ( This is assuming we dont get some serious foreign investment, mining kicks in again, etc )

Your suggestions that Perth prices are now in recovery on cusp of further increases in my opinion is - optimistic

edit:can see how WA fared for wage price growth in the housing "catchup" up to 2008
Posted Image
Edited by Massive, 5 Aug 2014, 08:14 PM.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
herbie
Member Avatar


skamy
5 Aug 2014, 11:08 AM
The biggest positive for WA is that it did not see the same inflation in house prices as places like Darwin and Karratha ...
Unless you can muster up some sort of Sydney type land type shortage and/or shitty infrastructure yarn for Perth right about now Skamy, my personal thought is that I'd not touch the joint with a barge pole anytime soon ...

PS: Karratha (as opposed to Darwin) was in WA last time I looked; Though not in Perth admittedly.
Edited by herbie, 5 Aug 2014, 08:59 PM.
A Professional Demographer to an amateur demographer: "negative natural increase will never outweigh the positive net migration"
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Jimbo
Member Avatar


skamy
5 Aug 2014, 07:48 PM
House prices in Perth are at the same as they were in 2007 BEFORE the huge investment boom.

Now we have MORE jobs than 2007 due to bigger mines and more exports and more royalties. Why would house prices decline below the 2007 prices?

The investment boom didn't start in 2007.

Also, you are missing the point of growth. Even if job numbers and salaries stayed at their peaks, price growth requires population and income growth. Without increased pay, price growth above CPI and wage increases stretches the elastic band of affordability even further. Stagnant house prices in Perth would suggest that the elastic band is at full stretch.

The fact is, the high wages on site and in the city were created by the bugger the cost approach of the big miners trying to get ore to port first to cash in on Chinese demand. Those days are pretty much over and resource companies don't have to compete for workers like they did just a few years ago.

We now have a housing construction mini boom to satisfy FHO's who were fed up with paying high rents in a landlords market. We also have falling migration rates.

Take a look at your local rental market (if you are in Perth). The number of available properties is ticking up every week. I can't think of a single price positive argument for the Perth market at the moment.





Edited by Jimbo, 5 Aug 2014, 09:41 PM.
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be :?: rising.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Perthite
Member Avatar


Dave
5 Aug 2014, 05:38 PM
They'll cut out the wasteful shit like new car every year, twice a year overseas holiday, 5 star restaurant four nights a week

They'll keep paying the mortgage
I found the word your looking for. Recession.

Thats what's your describing.
skamy
5 Aug 2014, 06:29 PM
You are making the same mistake again total Australia CAPEX is not even $170bn ya silly




The state don't need do more Massive, there will be plenty of work once it all get going.

Big wages were made during the mining investment boom BUT house prices never rose to match these inflated wages. Thus it is very unlikely that they will fall, these prices were maintained on much lower wages back in 2007. The other thing to remember is that other industries suffered during the GFC eg tourism, home construction, wine exports, retail etc etc.

This negativity around the slowing of the mining investment boom is the last hurrah of the doom spruikers who have been calling doom on the Perth market since 2007. The market did suffer, many people lost money and house prices dropped severely particularly the high end market and regional prices. Doomsters were not happy with these falls they wanted more and now they are dreaming still that they will get better bargains than they did in 2012, it is a fantasy.




You said what?

39 billion drop in the past 12 months and accelerating. Staggering.

Construction is your worst nightmare.

https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/latest/a/23911867/mining-boom-continues-to-slow/

Yawn.

:z:
Edited by Perthite, 5 Aug 2014, 10:09 PM.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
lulldapull
Default APF Avatar


Perth is fucked! no doubt in anyone's mind.

The city of Tradies, sparkies and brickies can make their $70k per year. Back to the normal isn't it?
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
peter fraser
Member Avatar


lulldapull
5 Aug 2014, 10:05 PM
Perth is fucked! no doubt in anyone's mind.

The city of Tradies, sparkies and brickies can make their $70k per year. Back to the normal isn't it?
When iron ore and our dollar fall employment will become much stronger. Almost everything you wish for will strengthen the economy.
Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
1 user reading this topic (1 Guest and 0 Anonymous)
ZetaBoards - Free Forum Hosting
ZetaBoards gives you all the tools to create a successful discussion community.
Go to Next Page
« Previous Topic · Australian Property Forum · Next Topic »
Reply



Australian Property Forum is an economics and finance forum dedicated to discussion of Australian and global real estate markets and macroeconomics, including house prices, housing affordability, and the likelihood of a property crash. Is there an Australian housing bubble? Will house prices crash, boom or stagnate? Is the Australian property market a pyramid scheme or Ponzi scheme? Can house prices really rise forever? These are the questions we address on Australian Property Forum, the premier real estate site for property bears, bulls, investors, and speculators. Members may also discuss matters related to finance, modern monetary theory (MMT), debt deflation, cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin Ethereum and Ripple, property investing, landlords, tenants, debt consolidation, reverse home equity loans, the housing shortage, negative gearing, capital gains tax, land tax and macro prudential regulation.

Forum Rules: The main forum may be used to discuss property, politics, economics and finance, precious metals, crypto currency, debt management, generational divides, climate change, sustainability, alternative energy, environmental topics, human rights or social justice issues, and other topics on a case by case basis. Topics unsuitable for the main forum may be discussed in the lounge. You agree you won't use this forum to post material that is illegal, private, defamatory, pornographic, excessively abusive or profane, threatening, or invasive of another forum member's privacy. Don't post NSFW content. Racist or ethnic slurs and homophobic comments aren't tolerated. Accusing forum members of serious crimes is not permitted. Accusations, attacks, abuse or threats, litigious or otherwise, directed against the forum or forum administrators aren't tolerated and will result in immediate suspension of your account for a number of days depending on the severity of the attack. No spamming or advertising in the main forum. Spamming includes repeating the same message over and over again within a short period of time. Don't post ALL CAPS thread titles. The Advertising and Promotion Subforum may be used to promote your Australian property related business or service. Active members of the forum who contribute regularly to main forum discussions may also include a link to their product or service in their signature block. Members are limited to one actively posting account each. A secondary account may be used solely for the purpose of maintaining a blog as long as that account no longer posts in threads. Any member who believes another member has violated these rules may report the offending post using the report button.

Australian Property Forum complies with ASIC Regulatory Guide 162 regarding Internet Discussion Sites. Australian Property Forum is not a provider of financial advice. Australian Property Forum does not in any way endorse the views and opinions of its members, nor does it vouch for for the accuracy or authenticity of their posts. It is not permitted for any Australian Property Forum member to post in the role of a licensed financial advisor or to post as the representative of a financial advisor. It is not permitted for Australian Property Forum members to ask for or offer specific buy, sell or hold recommendations on particular stocks, as a response to a request of this nature may be considered the provision of financial advice.

Views expressed on this forum are not representative of the forum owners. The forum owners are not liable or responsible for comments posted. Information posted does not constitute financial or legal advice. The forum owners accept no liability for information posted, nor for consequences of actions taken on the basis of that information. By visiting or using this forum, members and guests agree to be bound by the Zetaboards Terms of Use.

This site may contain copyright material (i.e. attributed snippets from online news reports), the use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. Such content is posted to advance understanding of environmental, political, human rights, economic, democratic, scientific, and social justice issues. This constitutes 'fair use' of such copyright material as provided for in section 107 of US Copyright Law. In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, the material on this site is distributed for research and educational purposes only. If you wish to use this material for purposes that go beyond 'fair use', you must obtain permission from the copyright owner. Such material is credited to the true owner or licensee. We will remove from the forum any such material upon the request of the owners of the copyright of said material, as we claim no credit for such material.

For more information go to Limitations on Exclusive Rights: Fair Use

Privacy Policy: Australian Property Forum uses third party advertising companies to serve ads when you visit our site. These third party advertising companies may collect and use information about your visits to Australian Property Forum as well as other web sites in order to provide advertisements about goods and services of interest to you. If you would like more information about this practice and to know your choices about not having this information used by these companies, click here: Google Advertising Privacy FAQ

Australian Property Forum is hosted by Zetaboards. Please refer also to the Zetaboards Privacy Policy