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Australia's coming jobs boom; A boom in in a sector which is one of our largest employers is going to create a lot of jobs.
Topic Started: 5 Aug 2014, 09:54 AM (8,996 Views)
Jimbo
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skamy
5 Aug 2014, 11:08 AM
The biggest positive for WA is that it did not see the same inflation in house prices as places like Darwin and Karratha. Rents are falling at the moment especially at the top end of the market for sure but the property market never did rise in fact it dropped during the height of the investment boom. This is why I believe Perth prices are very unlikely to drop any further from here.

Mining investment was well underway in 04/05/06/07 and did contribute greatly to house prices. Cashed up Poms selling terraced houses in England did not come here to go on the dole. They came for engineering, geology and allied jobs. The spin off was a dwelling construction boom that attracted more migrants. We didn't build enough houses to keep up with the migrant intake. This caused vacancy rates to tighten right up and forced up rents. Easy credit, investor speculation and migrants with cash did the rest.

Just compare Perth to the rest of the country. We have a high median house price compared to Melbourne, Adelaide and Brisbane because of our mining industry. We don't build cars or trains or jets, we make stuff for mining (and a few boats for cashed up FIFO workers). Tourism is nothing like over east because we are so far away from everything.

New housing construction will no doubt fill in any gaps from mining construction fall back, but relying on new house building as an economic growth strategy is dog eating own poo economics. Ask the Irish or the Spanish.
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be :?: rising.
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newjez
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Jimbo
5 Aug 2014, 03:54 PM
Mining investment was well underway in 04/05/06/07 and did contribute greatly to house prices. Cashed up Poms selling terraced houses in England did not come here to go on the dole. They came for engineering, geology and allied jobs. The spin off was a dwelling construction boom that attracted more migrants. We didn't build enough houses to keep up with the migrant intake. This caused vacancy rates to tighten right up and forced up rents. Easy credit, investor speculation and migrants with cash did the rest.

Just compare Perth to the rest of the country. We have a high median house price compared to Melbourne, Adelaide and Brisbane because of our mining industry. We don't build cars or trains or jets, we make stuff for mining (and a few boats for cashed up FIFO workers). Tourism is nothing like over east because we are so far away from everything.

New housing construction will no doubt fill in any gaps from mining construction fall back, but relying on new house building as an economic growth strategy is dog eating own poo economics. Ask the Irish or the Spanish.
Personally I think Perth should be the Australian Singapore. It is a potential gateway, but it is so far from that role its not funny.
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
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Perthite
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Jimbo
5 Aug 2014, 03:54 PM
Mining investment was well underway in 04/05/06/07 and did contribute greatly to house prices. Cashed up Poms selling terraced houses in England did not come here to go on the dole. They came for engineering, geology and allied jobs. The spin off was a dwelling construction boom that attracted more migrants. We didn't build enough houses to keep up with the migrant intake. This caused vacancy rates to tighten right up and forced up rents. Easy credit, investor speculation and migrants with cash did the rest.

Just compare Perth to the rest of the country. We have a high median house price compared to Melbourne, Adelaide and Brisbane because of our mining industry. We don't build cars or trains or jets, we make stuff for mining (and a few boats for cashed up FIFO workers). Tourism is nothing like over east because we are so far away from everything.

New housing construction will no doubt fill in any gaps from mining construction fall back, but relying on new house building as an economic growth strategy is dog eating own poo economics. Ask the Irish or the Spanish.
Essentially they expect building an extra 4000 dwellings annually in WA will replace mega projects plus new ore mines etc.

CAPEX is forecast to fall 170 billion by ABS.

Not to mention the austerity of the Rio and BHP who have trimmed tens of billions from their operations.

It's laughable.

People pushing this line are either bad at maths or bullshit artist shills pushing an agenda.
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Massive
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wake me up when construction laborers/tradies start earning median of $100k plus

http://www.payscale.com/research/AU/Job=Construction_Laborer/Hourly_Rate

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Perthite
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Massive
5 Aug 2014, 04:29 PM
wake me up when construction laborers/tradies start earning median of $100k plus

http://www.payscale.com/research/AU/Job=Construction_Laborer/Hourly_Rate

Dredge this up for the morons.

http://www.afr.com/p/national/cfmeu_agrees_to_slash_wages_in_wa_vkJaFBgGOKzfbg9CQOQIxI

blah blah.
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Jimbo
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Perthite
5 Aug 2014, 04:52 PM
True, when I am on site, I earn more than double what I would get in Perth. Also, Perth rates are inflated to compete with FIFO.
In 2009 when some projects were shelved for a while, Perth labour hire rates fell as people came back down from up north and started competing for TA and forky jobs. But again, it is not so much if jobs will be lost, it will be the knock on effect on migration into the state. The good old property supply demand situation will be weighted towards supply if there are not sufficient people to fill the already emptying rentals.
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be :?: rising.
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Massive
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Jimbo
5 Aug 2014, 05:25 PM
True, when I am on site, I earn more than double what I would get in Perth. Also, Perth rates are inflated to compete with FIFO.
In 2009 when some projects were shelved for a while, Perth labour hire rates fell as people came back down from up north and started competing for TA and forky jobs. But again, it is not so much if jobs will be lost, it will be the knock on effect on migration into the state. The good old property supply demand situation will be weighted towards supply if there are not sufficient people to fill the already emptying rentals.
im not sure if some here realise it was never really a question of if you could find a job for every laid off person in the mines... but if they are moving into positions that are essentially half the salary, how does that help demand for increased housing prices at all ?

houses with existing mortgages will get stressed / pressured to downsize and new households will have lower budgets. those who came for high salaries are likely to pull up stumps and take the cash back to their families, or settle for simpler lifestyle in Perth waiting on next boom.

I've yet to see any evidence of this playing out any other way over coming years. I thought perhaps government would inject capital to encourage growth but so far they have only been focusssed on trophy projects along the Swan waterfront and are now crying the budget is fucked because iron ore has dropped more sharply than predicted.
Edited by Massive, 5 Aug 2014, 05:58 PM.
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Dave
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Massive
5 Aug 2014, 05:35 PM
houses with existing mortgages will get stressed / pressured to downsize and new households will have lower budgets
They'll cut out the wasteful shit like new car every year, twice a year overseas holiday, 5 star restaurant four nights a week

They'll keep paying the mortgage
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Massive
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Dave
5 Aug 2014, 05:38 PM
They'll cut out the wasteful shit like new car every year, twice a year overseas holiday, 5 star restaurant four nights a week

They'll keep paying the mortgage
of course they will - try ... but how many people will qualify for new mortgages of similar (or greater) values with less income coming in to support house price growth?

( and i thought the car, holidays etc were funded by equity, mate )
Edited by Massive, 5 Aug 2014, 05:48 PM.
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skamy
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SittingOnDeFence
5 Aug 2014, 11:10 AM
So the mining boom never existed?
There is still a mining boom - record exports. There was a mining investment boom but that is tailing off. I am just saying I don't expect that to impact Perth property prices as they are coming off such a low and are only now reaching prices last seen years ago.
Lef-tee
5 Aug 2014, 01:13 PM
Not in skamy's special construct-your-own reality.



True - but the argument ignores the difference between mining and a mining investment boom. So the enormous sums being pumped into the economy by an unprecedented mining investment boom have been simply evaporating without effect have they?




If you know anything about the investment boom you would know that a) a lot of the money came from overseas and went back there through contracts to big US companies etc. b) a lot of Australian companies lost money on these project as as they priced at a low point in the economy only to face huge wages inflation etc. The mining investment boom was not all that some people think.

But the money pumped in has not evaporated what on earth made you think that? Australia now has much larger mines and these will employ more people and generate more profits for our mining companies and royalties for or governments for years to come.

People forget how lucky our economy is to have had that much invested in the future.

I actually think that it is you who lives in your own special construct reality, Leftie. Anyone looking at Australia and its fundamentals, its low unemployment, its individual wealth etc etc would fall of their chairs in shock if they thought Australians were complaining about their lot and being negative about their future.

Edited by skamy, 5 Aug 2014, 06:18 PM.
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993
The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
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