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Australia's coming jobs boom; A boom in in a sector which is one of our largest employers is going to create a lot of jobs.
Topic Started: 5 Aug 2014, 09:54 AM (8,988 Views)
skamy
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Massive
7 Aug 2014, 02:29 PM
oh dear... .i posted wages growth for the same period and showed the correlation for house prices .... you just posted a graph on investment for the same period ... they arent the same thing....

there was not significant wage growth in recent years relative to the period up to 2007 .... and when it did spike towards end of 2012/2013 , those charts show house price growth followed..


Massive are you saying that wages did not grow with the mining investment boom?- You are showing a different period full stop.

Compare Darwin with Perth both experienced the big investment boom wages which are now dropping off. Perth prices dropped - Darwin boomed. Look at the chart for price to income, the drop is marked for Perth.
You keep missing what I am saying and going backwards to Perth 's last property price boom yet Mike has said there were many other reasons for that boom.


I was responding to a comment on whether I believed it was good to get out of the rental market and into home ownership as soon as people can, it was nothing to do with Perth , Sydney or anywhere. It was a reference to the adage that rental money is dead money.
When a person waits for either property price drops or rises they are speculating and there is an upside and a downside risk to that. In my life, I have seen many more people lose out with rising prices than gaining with falling prices. I am not saying one single thing about the predicted direction of house prices in that belief. I am saying if you want to buy a home it is, IMHO, better not gamble on a falling market and waste rent money.


Edited by skamy, 7 Aug 2014, 03:00 PM.
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993
The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
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SuperEgo
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this thread is completely insane

its not even about a jobs boom or any coming boom

I suggest over use of drugs to be the cause of this thread

combined with a severe detachment from reality
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Massive
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skamy
7 Aug 2014, 02:58 PM
Massive are you saying that wages did not grow with the mining investment boom?- You are showing a different period full stop.

Compare Darwin with Perth both experienced the big investment boom wages which are now dropping off. Perth prices dropped - Darwin boomed. Look at the chart for price to income, the drop is marked for Perth.
You keep missing what I am saying and going backwards to Perth 's last property price boom yet Mike has said there were many other reasons for that boom.


I was responding to a comment on whether I believed it was good to get out of the rental market and into home ownership as soon as people can, it was nothing to do with Perth , Sydney or anywhere. It was a reference to the adage that rental money is dead money.
When a person waits for either property price drops or rises they are speculating and there is an upside and a downside risk to that. In my life, I have seen many more people lose out with rising prices than gaining with falling prices. I am not saying one single thing about the predicted direction of house prices in that belief. I am saying if you want to buy a home it is, IMHO, better not gamble on a falling market and waste rent money.

look at the charts skamy... read the dates... im talking of the same period...

the drops came with wage growth drops.. rises came with wage rise gains.. yes other factors come into play... 2007 was blue sky period, with caution thrown into the wind so people leveraged even harder and saved less ... 2008 on the world has not been the same, and the spikey house price graph reflects the uncertainty.. but the correlation is still evident..

posting again for last time - if you cant see correlation - so be it .

Posted Image
Posted Image

but moving population from 150k jobs oto 70k jobs will impact house price growth negatively unless other factors come to play .. i dont know how you can conclude it means house price gains are coming.

edit: now if interest rates were to drop and few other things come into play, then the argument for gains gets more traction ....
Edited by Massive, 7 Aug 2014, 03:18 PM.
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newjez
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http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/unemployment-jumps-to-more-than-10year-high-20140807-101a9n.html

Queensland doesn't reflect the enthusiasm of some on here. Show us the money guys?
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
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skamy
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Massive
7 Aug 2014, 03:13 PM
look at the charts skamy... read the dates... im talking of the same period...

the drops came with wage growth drops.. rises came with wage rise gains.. yes other factors come into play... 2007 was blue sky period, with caution thrown into the wind so people leveraged even harder and saved less ... 2008 on the world has not been the same, and the spikey house price graph reflects the uncertainty.. but the correlation is still evident..

posting again for last time - if you cant see correlation - so be it .

Posted Image
Posted Image

but moving population from 150k jobs oto 70k jobs will impact house price growth negatively unless other factors come to play .. i dont know how you can conclude it means house price gains are coming.

edit: now if interest rates were to drop and few other things come into play, then the argument for gains gets more traction ....
All I have been saying is that there has been little or no increases in price since 2007 (that is shown in your second chart) until very recently, hence my expectation of no significant negative price effect from the drop off in wages that rose SINCE 2007.

I am not disputing at all the correlation effect you are showing for 2008.


Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993
The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
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SuperEgo
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Could we please rename the title to something more appropriate

than a completely fictional Jobs Boom
Edited by SuperEgo, 7 Aug 2014, 03:55 PM.
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newjez
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SuperEgo
7 Aug 2014, 03:52 PM
Could we please rename the title to something more appropriate

than a completely fictional Jobs Boom
Don't you appreciate the irony?
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
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GloomBoomDoom
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SuperEgo
7 Aug 2014, 03:52 PM
Could we please rename the title to something more appropriate

than a completely fictional Jobs Boom
What about "Australia's coming jobs.. kaboom!"
MSE
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SuperEgo
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GloomBoomDoom
7 Aug 2014, 04:25 PM
What about "Australia's coming jobs.. kaboom!"
it certainly has hit the fan

somehow we are managing to sustain the façade even with poorer economics policy

which shows you how long ago all the other world economies where all well and truly floating in the toilet !!!

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Lef-tee
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skamy
7 Aug 2014, 02:22 PM
Thanks for that Mike, i am much in agreement with this.

Massive and I were also discussing two different periods, his charts show the growth in house prices with wages (etc) several years ago, whereas my data is showing that this did not occur with the most recent wages growth for the investment boom.

The unemployment figures are unexpectedly good with WA in such a strong position compared to the rest of the States.

Here are the unemployment stats from the 90s (ABS). WA is in a much stronger position today.
Posted Image
Fuck me, I hope they're stronger today since those figures were in the wake of the 1990 recession - one of Australia's worst economic downturns and probably the most severe one since the great depression.

Making such a comparison with today and arguing that is proof of how good things are now is just dumb.
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