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Daily Iron Ore Price, Commodities and Precious Metals Update - August 2014
Topic Started: 4 Aug 2014, 01:35 PM (8,700 Views)
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CBA Commodities Daily Alert 19-Aug-14

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BHP demerges non-core assets

BHP has announced it will demerge a number of its non-core assets
into a separate company. The assets that are planned to pass hands
to the separate company include the Cannington silver mine in
Australia, alumina and aluminium assets in South Africa, Australia
and Mozambique, manganese assets in Australia and South Africa
and coal assets in Australia and South Africa, as well the company’s
ferronickel asset in Colombia. BHP also intends to expand its WA
iron ore business by 65Mtpa to 290Mtpa. It believes it can do so at
less than USD50/t capital intensity through debottlenecking the inner
harbour and expanding the Jimblebar mine.

Base metals finished mostly higher on demand hopes after US
housing starts rose to their highest level in eight months. Gold futures
fell after the cost of living in US rose at its slowest pace in five
months, reducing the appeal of the precious metal as an inflation
hedge. Crude oil benchmarks continued to fall on easing supply risks
after Kurdish and Iraqi forced reclaimed territory from militants. US
WTI crude oil also fell as investors with no interest in physical crude
oil sold September WTI futures, which are due to expire later today.
Iron ore fell by 0.3% to USD93.00/t (CFR China).

South Korea’s coking coal imports fell by 16.0% y/y to 1.88Mt in
July, while its average realised coking coal price declined by
23.1% y/y to USD120.56/t. The country’s thermal coal imports
advanced 9.8% y/y to 8.67Mt in July, while its average thermal coal
price fell by 5.8% y/y to USD80.32/t.

Australian steel and iron ore group, Arrium, lifted iron ore exports by
51% y/y to 12.5Mt in the 12 months to 30 June 2014. The company
is set to reach its iron ore production target of 13Mtpa in 3Q14.
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Shanghai rebar hits fresh record low on property woes

Tue Aug 19, 2014 9:29am IST
By Manolo Serapio Jr

SINGAPORE, Aug 19 (Reuters) - Rebar steel futures in China
dropped to new all-time lows on Tuesday, showing no respite for
prices pressured by expectations a cooling property sector would
continue to hurt demand.
Chinese iron ore futures also pulled back for a second
straight session to the lowest in two months.
The most-active rebar for January delivery on the Shanghai
Futures Exchange dropped earlier in the session to
3,003 yuan ($489) a tonne, the lowest for a most-traded contract
since the bourse launched rebar futures in March 2009.
By 0323 GMT, the January contract was at 3,011 yuan, down
0.2 percent.
Construction, comprised of real estate and infrastructure,
accounts for around half of China's steel demand.
The weak property sector is now among the biggest risks to
China's economy with data released on Monday showing home prices
in China fell in July for a third straight month. That followed
data last week that pointed to slower growth in property
investment in July.
"What is quite disheartening is that even if many Chinese
cities have already eased their property purchase policies,
there's no sign of a recovery yet," said Helen Lau, analyst at
UOB-Kay Hian Securities in Hong Kong.
Of greater concern for the steel sector is the slowdown in
real estate investment, she said.
"That means demand from the property sector will be very
slow and this will affect demand for steel and steel prices,"
said Lau who sees rebar potentially dropping another 30-50 yuan
before finding support.
Iron ore also slipped. The January iron ore contract on the
Dalian Commodity Exchange fell as far as 649 yuan per
tonne, its weakest since June 20. It was down 0.6 percent at
midday at 652 yuan.
But demand for iron ore cargoes in the spot market appears
firm, traders said, with the benchmark spot price largely steady
above $90 a tonne.
Iron ore for immediate delivery to China .IO62-CNI=SI was
off 10 cents at $93.30 a tonne on Monday, according to data
compiled by Steel Index.
"Expectations are steel mills will need to restock this week
and the next after staying largely absent from the seaborne
market last week," Australia and New Zealand Bank analysts said
in a note.
Spot iron ore fell below $100 a tonne on May 19 and touched
a 21-month trough of $89 in June, but has since been trading
above $90.
Australian steelmaker and iron ore miner Arrium Ltd
said it expects China's iron ore demand to remain strong due to
brisk steel production and lower output from higher cost Chinese
iron ore miners.
Arrium posted an 83 percent jump in annual underlying profit
as its iron ore output rose by more than half.
BHP Billiton , the world's No. 3 iron ore
producer, will release its full-year results later on Tuesday
and is expected to report a 22 percent rise in annual profit,
buoyed by higher iron ore volumes and deep cost cuts.

Read more: http://in.reuters.com/article/2014/08/19/markets-ironore-idINL4N0QP19G20140819
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Reliance on cost-cutting the real BHP story: Clyde Russell

Wed Aug 20, 2014 6:22am GMT
By Clyde Russell

LAUNCESTON, Australia, Aug 20 (Reuters) - BHP Billiton's plans to spin-off unwanted assets may have received a tepid welcome from investors, but the real news from the mining giant's results is the limits to cost-cutting.

Delving into BHP's results presentation on Tuesday shows the company has been successful in cutting expenses, with a 12 percent cut in cash costs at the flagship Western Australian iron ore operations, while the Queensland coal business recorded a 24 percent drop.

BHP said its productivity-led volume and cost efficiencies were $2.9 billion in the year to end June 2014, beating its target by $1.1 billion.

Given the company's net income for the period was $13.4 billion, the $2.9 billion in savings represents about 22 percent of the profit, which certainly looks impressive.

The problem comes when you start to look at the savings achieved, the potential for further cost-cutting and the likely trajectory of commodity prices.

BHP said it produced a record 225 million tonnes of iron ore in the 2014 financial year, which resulted in revenue of just under $23 billion, or roughly 34 percent of the group's total revenue.

The miner said it achieved a realised iron ore price of $103 a tonne for the year, which was 6 percent below the prior financial year.

However, Asian spot iron ore .IO62-CNI=SI prices have fallen 31 percent this year to $93 a tonne on Tuesday, and the consensus is that they will remain below $100 for the foreseeable future as big miners such as BHP, Anglo-Australian rival Rio Tinto and Brazil's Vale ramp up output even as Chinese demand growth weakens.

Put another way, a tonne of iron ore is currently $41.20 a tonne less than it was at the start of the year, while BHP's cost cutting resulted in a saving of about $3.53 a tonne over the year to end June.

BHP's presentation also provides a useful calculator of the impact of price changes in commodities on its expected profit for the year to end June 2015.

Every $1 drop in the price of iron ore wipes $135 million off net profit after tax.

The company plans to increase iron ore output to 245 million tonnes in the 2015 year, a gain of 20 million tonnes.

But the extra revenue generated from this output boost seems likely to be overshadowed by the lower profits from a weaker iron ore price.

If BHP achieves a selling price of $96 per tonne for iron ore in the current financial year, which is the consensus forecast price for 2015 in a Reuters poll of analysts, this means a drop of $7 a tonne from the 2014 financial year.

This translates to a loss of $945 million in net profit after tax in the 2015 financial year, and this is just for the iron ore division.

DIMINISHING RETURNS FROM OUTPUT BOOST?

Looking at revenue, the 225 million tonnes of iron ore produced in the 2014 financial year yielded $23.175 billion, using BHP's realised price of $103 a tonne.

If 2015 output is 245 million tonnes, and the realised price is $96 a tonne, it will result in $23.52 billion in revenue, a gain of just $345 million on the prior year.

In this case, iron ore risks becoming another coal, where miners pursue output gains in order to lower costs, but in the end the resulting supply surplus just depresses prices even more, resulting in a no-win situation for producers.

It's not just iron ore. If the price of crude oil drops by $1 a barrel, BHP's profit goes down by $50 million. For copper a decline of 1 U.S. cent per pound knocks off $30 million, and in metallurgical coal a fall of $1 per tonne means $30 million lower profit.

Of course, the opposite is true insofar as profits will rise by the same amounts assuming that commodity prices increase.

But while there may be some recovery in iron ore, coal and copper prices, the risks are that on average they will be much the same to weaker in the 12 months to end June 2015 compared to the same period a year earlier.

This means that BHP will only be able to boost profits by cutting costs further, and by limiting capital expenditure.

Both of these are possible, even likely, but the question has to be can BHP, and its rivals, cut costs as fast as commodity prices have fallen?

The Australian-listed shares of both BHP and Rio Tinto have diverged this year from iron ore, after years of fairly close correlation. (See graphic) [link.reuters.com/few62w ]

BHP's share price is up 4.2 percent from the end of last year to Tuesday's close, while Rio Tinto's is down by 3.5 percent.

This means they have both significantly outperformed the 31 percent drop in iron ore, and perhaps much of the credit for that can be attributed to their cost-cutting and capital spending reductions.

But both are now in their longest period of divergence from the iron ore price since the Asian spot iron ore index was launched in 2008.

For this divergence to persist the lower cost-structure for the miners would have to be sustained, and that may prove to be a bridge too far for both BHP and Rio.

Read more: http://af.reuters.com/article/energyOilNews/idAFL4N0QQ17520140820?sp=true
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Glencore starts $1 billion buyback as CEO says boom not over

August 21, 2014 - 5:59AM
Jesse Riseborough

Glencore's billionaire chief executive officer Ivan Glasenberg underscored his belief in the longevity of the global commodities boom by beating his biggest rivals in handing out surplus cash to investors.

Glencore, the third-largest miner by market value, today announced a $US1 billion ($1.1 billion) share buyback after first-half profit gained 8 per cent on higher production. Investors in BHP Billiton sent the stock down the most in more than three years in London yesterday after the world's biggest mining company chose to retain cash because of weaker commodity prices.

Global mining investors have been demanding greater returns following a period marked by failed acquisitions and spending on mine expansions that flooded metals markets. After a decade of explosive price gains fueled by Chinese demand, often defined as the commodities supercycle, mining companies are contending with slower growth by spurning mergers and cutting costs.

"The supercycle ain't over, China is still buying, demand for commodities hasn't tapered off, it's even higher than it's ever been," Glasenberg said today in an interview. "The demand is pretty good. We'll grow. We may do acquisitions where you're not creating more supply in the market."

The stock gained 0.4 per cent to 360.5 pence in London today. It's up 18 per cent this year giving it a market value of about $US80 billion.

Glencore, about 25 per cent owned by management, reported an 11 per cent increase in its dividend to 6 cents a share. Glasenberg reaped a $US173 million dividend for 2012 and a $US182 million payout for last year.

Adjusted net income rose to $US2.01 billion from a restated $US1.9 billion a year earlier, Baar, Switzerland-based Glencore said today in a statement. That compares with the $US1.93 billion average estimate of seven analysts compiled by Bloomberg.

"The mining companies should start generating cash and using the cash to give back to shareholders," Glasenberg said. "We really think like shareholders because we are shareholders."

Other big miners are also targeting shareholder payouts. Barrick Gold Corp. says it's now focusing on returns rather than production volumes. Earlier this month, Rio Tinto Group raised its dividend and said it's on its way to becoming a "cash machine" as a cost-cutting drive starts to bear fruit.

BHP has been expected to announce a buyback yesterday of as much as $US3 billion, Citigroup Inc said. CEO Andrew Mackenzie said the company was reticent to buy back stock following commodity price declines and a weak outlook.

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/mining-and-resources/glencore-starts-1-billion-buyback-as-ceo-says-boom-not-over-20140821-106hww.html
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Chinese iron ore, steel prices slip on oversupply worries

Wed Aug 20, 2014
By David Stanway

BEIJING, Aug 20 (Reuters) - Prices of iron ore and steel
continued to fall in China on Wednesday, with traders still
worried by oversupply and unimpressed by the latest government
efforts to stimulate construction demand in northeastern
regions.
"I'm just observing the market to see where I can make a
profit. If there are price differences between the Dalian
Commodity Exchange and the ports, for example, we can sometimes
make money, but right now there isn't much of an opportunity,"
said a trader based in Beijing.
"Right now, the price for iron ore is going down and down,
and I personally believe we need to wait until September or
October before it goes up again," he said.
On Tuesday, China issued detailed new policy measures aimed
at speeding up infrastructure investment in its struggling
northeastern rust belt.
While new road and rail projects in the region could
stimulate steel demand, the policy wasn't enough to breathe life
into the stagnant iron ore market.
Benchmark 62 percent grade iron ore for immediate delivery
into China .IO62-CNI=SI slipped 0.3 percent on Tuesday to end
at $93 per tonne, its lowest level in two months and 33 percent
lower than at the same time last year.
"A price recovery in iron ore is being held back further by
mills that are selling long-term, fixed-price cargoes into the
spot market, adding to excess supply," Australia and New Zealand
Bank said in a note on Wednesday.
Domestic supplies also remain resilient, with utilisation
rates at major Chinese iron ore mines rising in August,
according to research published this week by Chinese brokerage
GF Securities.
Rebar prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange ended
the morning session down 0.33 percent at 3,003 yuan ($489) per
tonne. The most active iron ore contract for September delivery
on the Dalian Commodity Exchange finished at 654 yuan
a tonne, up 0.31 percent.
Melinda Moore, an analyst with Standard Bank, said the
market was "still absorbing over-exuberant steel mill output in
the first 10 days of August".
There were signs that China was getting to grips with steel
oversupply in July, when plant overhauls and even closures
helped drag average daily steel output down to its lowest level
of the year, according to official data.
However, the daily rate remained 3 percent higher than the
average in the whole of last year, and China Iron and Steel
Association data on Monday showed it had rebounded in August.

Analysts said the scale of the production increase in the
first 10 days of the month had taken the market by surprise and
suggested that China's efforts to shut down old capacity were
not having as big an effect as anticipated.
China's industry ministry has set a September deadline for
the closure of nearly 47 million tonnes of steel and iron
smelting capacity, but the shutdowns can quickly be offset by
larger mills seeking to expand market share. Despite a state
crackdown, illegal production also remains a factor.
"Illegal production capacity remains too strong, and as soon
as capacity is shut down, illegal capacity comes and replaces
it," according to a research note from online steel trading
platform GTXH.com.

Read more: http://in.reuters.com/article/2014/08/20/markets-ironore-idINL4N0QQ1LK20140820
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Batista’s MMX to Halt Work at Mine as Iron-Ore Falls

By Juan Pablo Spinetto Aug 21, 2014

MMX Mineracao & Metalicos SA (MMXM3), the mining unit of former billionaire Eike Batista, will temporarily stop operations at its only producing mine as it seeks to avoid bankruptcy protection amid lower metal prices.

The Brazilian iron-ore producer will give workers at its Serra Azul unit in Minas Gerais state a 30-day “collective vacation,” MMX said in a statement today. The furlough will begin during the first week of September.

“The necessity of the collective vacation and temporary stop of the production activities at the Serra Azul Unit is a consequence of the significant and prolonged decline of the iron-ore price,” MMX said in the statement. The measure also stems from “the operating restrictions imposed by the environmental authorities of the state of Minas Gerais.”

MMX is reviewing its business plan to bolster cash as iron-ore prices decline. The company will pay workers during the furlough, MMX said in an e-mailed reply to questions.

Batista, once Brazil’s richest person, has been selling assets as missed targets, mounting debt and accumulating losses forced his oil and shipbuilding companies to enter Brazil’s so-called judicial recovery proceedings last year. The entrepreneur earlier this month agreed to transfer two stakes in MMX and port developer Prumo Logistica SA (PRML3) to Mubadala Development Co. as part of a deal to restructure a $2 billion investment provided by the Abu Dhabi government-owned investor.

Bankruptcy Protection

MMX fell to the lowest since its 2006 listing today after Veja magazine columnist Lauro Jardim wrote Aug. 18 that the company will seek bankruptcy protection by the end of August. While MMX has no immediate plans to seek court protection from creditors, it remains an option, a person familiar with the strategy told Bloomberg News yesterday, asking not to be named because the process is private.

The Rio de Janeiro-based company is seeking to sell or lease its remaining assets, the person said.

“There is no deliberation under way” on a bankruptcy protection filing, the company said in a regulatory filing yesterday. MMX declined to comment further on the possibility in an e-mailed response to Bloomberg News.

MMX had record losses last year after putting on hold an expansion of Serra Azul and writing down the value of its assets. In February, the company sold a controlling stake in a key iron-ore port project in Rio and last month agreed to lease its Corumba mine to Vetria Mineracao SA.

Worst Performer

The shares dropped 8.5 percent to 97 centavos in Sao Paulo, extending a record low. MMX was the worst-performer on the benchmark Ibovespa index today. The stock has lost 93 percent of its value in the past 12 months.

MMX produced 1.39 million metric tons of iron ore at Serra Azul during the first quarter, a 6 percent increase from a year ago. The company postponed the release of its second-quarter results to Oct. 15 from last week as part of the review of its business plan.

Iron-ore prices for immediate delivery to the Chinese port of Tianjin dropped 0.8 percent to $92.30 a ton today, the lowest in two months, according to a price index compiled by The Steel Index Ltd. The steelmaking ingredient has declined 34 percent in the past 12 months.

Read more: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-08-20/batista-s-mmx-to-halt-work-at-mine-as-iron-ore-falls.html
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Iran to delay iron ore export tax to 2015 due to weak market - source

By Manolo Serapio Jr
SINGAPORE, Aug 20

Iran is to delay the introduction of a 10 percent tax on exports of unprocessed iron ore until March next year, a source with knowledge of the plan said, as the market is struggling and a number of private mines in the Islamic state have been halted. A 31 percent fall in iron ore prices this year, stoked by increased shipments from major suppliers Australia and Brazil, has led to a sixfold jump in stockpiles at Iranian ports as exporters held off sales, leading to the closure of around half the private mines at one stage. "The government has agreed to postpone the tax to the beginning of next year because right now the market is too low and they're afraid to lose the market when they apply this duty," said a source who met with officials of Iran's Ministry of Mine, Trade and Industry this month. He was referring to Iran's financial year, which runs from March 21 through to March 20 of the following year. The tax was originally due to be introduced this year. The plan is to gradually increase the export duty to 20 percent, according to the source, who owns one of the iron ore mines in Iran that has been temporarily shuttered and declined to be identified because the delay has yet to be publicly announced. Emails seeking comment from Iran's Ministry of Mine, Trade and Industry were not answered and other attempts to reach the ministry were also unsuccessful. Iran already imposes a 40 percent tax on exports of iron ore concentrates and a 30 percent duty on pellets based on free-on-board prices. The government was looking at imposing the 10 percent tax on iron ore fines and lump as a way of both supporting its fledgling domestic steel industry and cashing in on its biggest non-oil export. Western countries have imposed sanctions on Iran because of its nuclear programme, which they fear could be aimed at developing a nuclear weapons capability. A July deadline for reaching a deal was missed but talks have been extended for four months. The sanctions involve, among other things, some financial transactions plus trade in oil, petrochemicals, gold and precious metals. Trade in iron ore is not directly covered and shipments of the raw material have been generating much-needed revenue for the country as crude sales dropped by nearly $4 billion a month compared to levels before tougher sanctions took effect in 2012. Nearly all of Iran's iron ore shipments go to China, which bought $2.4 billion worth in 2013, based on Chinese customs data. Iran is the fourth-biggest iron ore exporter to the world's top market, although its shipments are well below those of Australia and Brazil. SEABORNE SUPPLY Iron ore prices dropped to $89 a tonne in June, the lowest since September 2012, although they have since bounced back and stood at $93 on Tuesday. The recovery has encouraged some of the private mines in Iran to reopen, although total exports in July still only reached 1.065 million tonnes, according to the source. That would be below the 1.2 million tonnes shipped in June, already the lowest since September 2012. Given the global supply situation, any sustained recovery in the price looks unlikely in the medium term. It fell through $100 in May amid a global surplus that Morgan Stanley expects to reach 79 million tonnes this year, doubling to 158 million tonnes in 2015. That reflects efforts by top miners such as Rio Tinto and Vale to boost output, edging out smaller players with higher costs such as those in Iran. Vale plans to lift annual iron ore exports to about 400 million tonnes within five years from 270 million tonnes in 2013, Jose Carlos Martins, the miner's head of ferrous metals, said this month. Morgan Stanley sees global seaborne iron ore supply growing by around 330 million tonnes over the next three years, while demand will rise by only 194 million. The lion's share of the supply increase will arrive this year and next and would come from Vale, Rio, BHP Billiton and Fortescue Metals Group , it said. "This forecast growth in seaborne supply should be viewed as a near certainty, as the vast majority of new tonnes entering the market are at the low end of the cost curve and spending is committed," the bank said in a report on Monday.

Read more: http://www.zawya.com/story/Iran_to_delay_iron_ore_export_tax_to_2015_due_to_weak_market__source-TR20140820nL4N0QE0N1X2/
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CBA Commodities Daily Alert 21-Aug-14

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HSBC flash China manufacturing PMI falls

Base metals finished mostly lower on demand concerns, after a
preliminary gauge of China’s manufacturing sector showed a slower
expansion than expected. US WTI fell despite a lift in demand hopes
after US existing home sales grew faster than expected in July. Gold
futures continued to trade lower on views that the US Fed may lift
interest rates sooner than markets expect following the release of the
minutes from the Fed’s July meeting. Iron ore fell by 0.4% to
USD91.90/t (CFR China).

China’s refined copper imports fell by 4% m/m and 16% y/y to 245kt
in July, reflecting weaker demand for inventory financing as a probe
into the use of metals to secure fraudulent loans continues at the
Chinese port of Qingdao.

The International Nickel Study Group (INSG) estimates that refined
nickel markets moved from a deficit of 3.3kt in May to a surplus of
1.7kt in June. From January to June, the group estimates that world
refined nickel markets were in a surplus of 11.8kt, down from 72.8kt
for the same period last year.

India’s government has approved an increase in royalty rates on
minerals and metals mined in India, including iron ore, copper and
bauxite. The royalty on iron ore mining is proposed to lift from 10%
to 15%, while copper mining will see rates increase from 4.2% to
4.62%. Royalties in bauxite mining will lift from 0.5% to 0.6%. While
the revised rates still require India’s federal government to notify the
changes, the proposed lift in royalties will likely increase the cost of
mining in India and the domestic price of minerals and metals.

China’s LNG imports rose by 36.2% y/y to 1.84Mt in July, while its
average realised price fell by 4.0% to USD11.06/mmbtu.
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Perthite
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Man 80 bucks is getting close.
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newjez
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Perthite
22 Aug 2014, 10:30 PM
Man 80 bucks is getting close.
It may test the lows again, but I doubt it will breach 80.
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
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