My position is that well chosen, individual properties will outperform the overall market over time, and that the market in general will increase in nominal terms (but not always real ones).
My predictions are far more specific than the whiney drivel you normally post.
Your predictions are just meaningless blather. Your previous comment...
Quote:
Some rises, some falls, some flat periods, but generally a slow and steady march upwards over the longer term.
...is just empty. It's like saying about throwing a dice...
Quote:
sometimes it's a six, sometimes it's a one, but generally it's closer to three or four, and over the long run the number tends to around 3.5
i.e absolutely no insight whatsoever. That's why I asked if your prediction of a slow and steady rise was in real or nominal terms - if the former then you would be saying something. i.e that you expect house price inflation to continue to outstrip wages.
Your comment about well positioned places offering better returns is again a canard, and has nothing to do with the macro structural issues facing the housing market that we discuss at length here, which are the main driver of prices in australia.
Your hissy fit and name calling is quite out of character though, and offer an interesting insight into your current situation. Something related to this I assume:
"It were not best that we should all think alike; it is difference of opinion that makes horse races." - Mark Twain on why he avoids discussing house prices over at MacroBusiness. "Buy land, they're not making any more of it." - Georgist Land Tax proponent Mark Twain laughing in his grave at humourless idiots like skamy that continually use this quip to justify housing bubbles.
More of the same. Some rises, some falls, some flat periods, but generally a slow and steady march upwards over the longer term.
The impact of migration on house prices is largely dependent upon the amount of capital that migrants bring with them.
Perth saw a huge influx of poms in the early to mid 00's who had sold properties in the UK with large capital gains from the 1997 -2007 housing boom. This capital was exchanged at anything from $2.50 to $3.00 for one pound.
Poms were flashing the cash and buying bling houses, flash cars with their EPL team on a personalised plate etc. Tradies were known to charge poms more for fixing plumbing leaks and wiring problems etc because they knew the poms had cash in the bank.
Pom working class people were buying prime beachfront property for mostly cash and the poor old Aussie working classes couldn't compete. Up went the prices like a rocket.
Now a pom wanting to come here has to contend with a crap rate of $1.80 to the pound and prices that are higher than they are in the UK (unless they live in central London).
I would like to see a breakdown of the most recent country of origin numbers for new arrivals. I would guess that we will see a growing number from Asia and falling numbers from Western Europe.
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be rising.
The impact of migration on house prices is largely dependent upon the amount of capital that migrants bring with them.
Perth saw a huge influx of poms in the early to mid 00's who had sold properties in the UK with large capital gains from the 1997 -2007 housing boom. This capital was exchanged at anything from $2.50 to $3.00 for one pound.
Poms were flashing the cash and buying bling houses, flash cars with their EPL team on a personalised plate etc. Tradies were known to charge poms more for fixing plumbing leaks and wiring problems etc because they knew the poms had cash in the bank.
Pom working class people were buying prime beachfront property for mostly cash and the poor old Aussie working classes couldn't compete. Up went the prices like a rocket.
Now a pom wanting to come here has to contend with a crap rate of $1.80 to the pound and prices that are higher than they are in the UK (unless they live in central London).
I would like to see a breakdown of the most recent country of origin numbers for new arrivals. I would guess that we will see a growing number from Asia and falling numbers from Western Europe.
Funny you say that, a lot of the recent migrants working at the bank have brought big money over ($500k+), but I suspect that's partly to do with the fact that being finance it's the nature of the beast.
However it got me thinking, although it sounds a bit woo and conspiratorial, perhaps the gubmnt could be indirectly targeting wealthy individuals to prop up prices via their choice of preferential skills for working visa / immigration. It would be fairly simple for them to obtain data to help them determine which professions are likely to include individuals with a substantial pre-existing capital base - the salary they command in their home country and their current age / number of children are the obvious ones, but there could be other less obvious cultural indicators too.
"It were not best that we should all think alike; it is difference of opinion that makes horse races." - Mark Twain on why he avoids discussing house prices over at MacroBusiness. "Buy land, they're not making any more of it." - Georgist Land Tax proponent Mark Twain laughing in his grave at humourless idiots like skamy that continually use this quip to justify housing bubbles.
Your predictions are just meaningless blather. Your previous comment...
...is just empty. It's like saying about throwing a dice...
i.e absolutely no insight whatsoever. That's why I asked if your prediction of a slow and steady rise was in real or nominal terms - if the former then you would be saying something. i.e that you expect house price inflation to continue to outstrip wages.
Your comment about well positioned places offering better returns is again a canard, and has nothing to do with the macro structural issues facing the housing market that we discuss at length here, which are the main driver of prices in australia.
Your hissy fit and name calling is quite out of character though, and offer an interesting insight into your current situation. Something related to this I assume:
My prediction is that over the long term property will rise in capital value, and a well chosen property will beat the market. The rest of your post is just pointless trolling. You know full well I don't resort to insults until someone throws one my way first, and then I return fire. So enjoy!
Incidentally I renewed another tenant this week. Another renewal with no drop in rent.
My prediction is that over the long term property will rise in capital value
So will the capital sitting in my bank account. You haven't even attempted to address my question as to whether the rises will be real or nominal.
A worthless contribution.
Quote:
, and a well chosen property will beat the market.
as will a well chosen postage stamp or baseball card.
Again, another worthless contribution.
Quote:
The rest of your post is just pointless trolling.
I have been posting on APF for over a year, have revealed parts of my personal situation that are relevant in the context of the debate here, and present my own opinions for judgement by other forum members, as well as calling out those i find spurious and inconsistent. I don't just sit on the sidelines spitting vitriol and hurling insults like some bears do here. But feel free to call me a troll if it makes you feel better.
"It were not best that we should all think alike; it is difference of opinion that makes horse races." - Mark Twain on why he avoids discussing house prices over at MacroBusiness. "Buy land, they're not making any more of it." - Georgist Land Tax proponent Mark Twain laughing in his grave at humourless idiots like skamy that continually use this quip to justify housing bubbles.
Funny you say that, a lot of the recent migrants working at the bank have brought big money over ($500k+), but I suspect that's partly to do with the fact that being finance it's the nature of the beast.
However it got me thinking, although it sounds a bit woo and conspiratorial, perhaps the gubmnt could be indirectly targeting wealthy individuals to prop up prices via their choice of preferential skills for working visa / immigration. It would be fairly simple for them to obtain data to help them determine which professions are likely to include individuals with a substantial pre-existing capital base - the salary they command in their home country and their current age / number of children are the obvious ones, but there could be other less obvious cultural indicators too.
I know the visa system works on points and if you get the right amount you qualify to come here (after health,language and character tests).
There are some well paid professions on the list, but there are also some low paid jobs as well. I remember "Hairdresser" used to be on the most wanted list along with Radiographer and Marine Biologist.
I just took at look at the website and there are quite a few average paid jobs on there like car mechanic and bricklayer. You would have thought we could train people up to fix cars and lay bricks (not being detrimental to brickies and mechanics, but they are not degree subjects).
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be rising.
I wonder if the first one gets double points for being able to do both?
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be rising.
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