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Boston Consulting Group blows the Australian population ponzi horn; Does Australia face a shortage of 2.3 million workers by 2030?
Topic Started: 4 Aug 2014, 11:26 AM (3,098 Views)
Morris
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Labour supply to top demand in five years

Australia is facing a shortage of 2.3 million workers by 2030 - one of the worst of the developed nations, according to a report by the Boston Consulting Group.

https://www.bcgperspectives.com/content/articles/management_two_speed_economy_public_sector_global_workforce_crisis

“No matter how you model it, Australia has a serious structural problem with its labour market… Even in our best-case scenario, demand will top supply in only five years. Based on the current do-nothing scenario, we would have to see GDP fall to 2 per cent over many years to avoid a labour shortage. That’s clearly not a solution”…

“Thanks to its commodity-rich economy, Australia can continue to keep growing through the first decade of the 21st century – insulating itself from the global downturn… If it continues on this trajectory and maintains its GDP growth of 3 per cent, Australia will likely experience a severe labour shortage by 2030.”
The Boston Consulting Group report needs to be seen in the context of the worldwide push by Elite interests to have migration controls removed in developed countries.

The reason for this has nothing to do with labour shortages or efficiency. It is driven by the growing inequality of income.

One of the unintended consequences of income inequality is the difficulty of growing aggregate demand, and therefore of growing profits. If the incomes of most of the population have stagnated (because the returns from economic growth are going almost entirely to the wealthy) then it is almost impossible to increase demand.

Some extra demand has been created through loose monetary policy and encouraging people to become indebted in order to maintain their spending. But there is a limit to this.

Some extra demand may be accessed by selling into export markets. But many developed-country businesses are either uncompetitive or are in non-tradable sectors tied to the domestic market.

So . . . . if domestic per capita incomes have stagnated, if the borrowing binge is exhausted, and if export markets are not accessible, there is only one variable left to fiddle with: the number of “capitas”.

If demand and profits are to grow then the population must grow.

This is not just an Australian problem. If affects elite interests in all developed countries. Hence the campaign (by elite institutions such as The Economist) to allow uncontrolled population growth through migration. It is the only way in which profits can be grown.

Thus we have the odd situation where developed-country Elites suddenly find themselves having an overwhelming concern for the welfare of developing-country populations who wish to improve their position through migration.

Such altruism!! It warms the heart.

Of course, such a policy is not without its costs in terms of overcrowding. (How anyone could travel on London’s public transport during peak hour, then argue – as The Economist does – that Britain needs to squeeze in even more people is a triumph of self-interested belief over evidence.)

But then the developed-country Elites who are pushing these policies are generally not the ones who will bear those costs. They will retreat to their mansions and country estates. They will not suffer the horrors of inadequate infrastructure and services. Their kiddies will have privileged access to the elite universities and professions and will not need to fight to find a decent job.

Conditions change over the generations but the determinants of economic policy do not. In all ages, those who possess political and market power seek to enrich themselves by exploiting those who do not.

One of the ways they do this is by engaging outfits like BCG to produce propaganda supporting their cause.
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stinkbug
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A very interesting article, and one that supports the argument that Australia will continue on it's current path in terms of immigration.
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While it's true that those who win never quit, and those who quit never win, those who never win and never quit are idiots.

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Dr Watson
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stinkbug
4 Aug 2014, 12:11 PM
A very interesting article, and one that supports the argument that Australia will continue on it's current path in terms of immigration.
And what would that mean for house prices?
The trouble with the world is that the stupid are cocksure and the intelligent are full of doubt — Bertrand Russell
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stinkbug
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Dr Watson
4 Aug 2014, 12:31 PM
And what would that mean for house prices?
More of the same. Some rises, some falls, some flat periods, but generally a slow and steady march upwards over the longer term.
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While it's true that those who win never quit, and those who quit never win, those who never win and never quit are idiots.

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Count du Monet
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There will never be enough slaves? How do they cope with million unemployed at present?

Is the central market policy to one of rising land value or declining wages?
The next trick of our glorious banks will be to charge us a fee for using net bank!!!
You are no longer customer, you are property!!!

Don't be SAUCY with me Bernaisse
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John Frum
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stinkbug
4 Aug 2014, 01:30 PM
but generally a slow and steady march upwards over the longer term.
Do you mean in nominal terms, or are you suggesting they'll just outstrip wage growth forever over the long term, giving endlessly to the lucky title-holders like a magic pudding?

You ought to read more books, so you can add more to this debate than vague hand-waving.
"It were not best that we should all think alike; it is difference of opinion that makes horse races." - Mark Twain on why he avoids discussing house prices over at MacroBusiness.
"Buy land, they're not making any more of it." - Georgist Land Tax proponent Mark Twain laughing in his grave at humourless idiots like skamy that continually use this quip to justify housing bubbles.
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Strindberg
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Yes, the number of Australia's rich is growing fast and the rich need to be serviced with a growing number of waiters, cooks, taxi drivers, shop assistants, barmaids, hairdressers, beauticians, housemaids, plastic surgeons, teeth enhancers, designer whores etc. High population growth is essential.
Housing costs to Income broadly unchanged since 1994 - re-ratified here
The People of Australia have the highest median wealth in the World
2002-2012 10 year house price growth the SLOWEST since 1952-1962
"There are two kinds of people in this world: ones that fiddle around wondering whether a thing's right or wrong and guys like us." (Hugo to Gagin in Ride the Pink Horse)
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Ollie
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The ABS visitor arrivals and departures data for the month of June registered another significant fall in net long-term and permanent migration into Australia.

In the year to June 2014, there were 753,620 permanent and long-term arrivals into Australia – down from the record 792,500 arrivals set in the year to January 2013 – partly offset by 383,070 permanent and long-term departures from Australia.

There were 370,050 net permanent and long-term arrivals into Australia in the year to June 2014, down from 376,280 net arrivals in the year to May 2014, but still representing a 30% increase from the January 2011 trough and well over double the long-run average of 154,671.

As shown above, net long-term migration into Australia has clearly peaked. Moreover, permanent migration is also softening. In the year to June 2014, permanent arrivals fell by 8% to 140,630, whereas permanent departures fell by a more moderate 5% to 86,790.

Taken together, net permanent arrivals into Australia fell by 11% over the year and are tracking 17% below the long-run average.

Obviously, the permanent migration figures need to be taken with a pinch of salt, since a significant number of long-term temporary arrivals will go on to become permanent residents. Nevertheless, the trends are clear and migration into Australia is clearly trending lower.
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stinkbug
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John Frum
4 Aug 2014, 05:20 PM
Do you mean in nominal terms, or are you suggesting they'll just outstrip wage growth forever over the long term, giving endlessly to the lucky title-holders like a magic pudding?

You ought to read more books, so you can add more to this debate than vague hand-waving.
What do you think, fool?

My position is that well chosen, individual properties will outperform the overall market over time, and that the market in general will increase in nominal terms (but not always real ones).

My predictions are far more specific than the whiney drivel you normally post.
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While it's true that those who win never quit, and those who quit never win, those who never win and never quit are idiots.

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ThePauk
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Ollie
8 Aug 2014, 05:38 PM

Obviously, the permanent migration figures need to be taken with a pinch of salt, since a significant number of long-term temporary arrivals will go on to become permanent residents. Nevertheless, the trends are clear and migration into Australia is clearly trending lower.
Mmmm, temp visa holders must compete with an OS resident for a permanent place. Those are capped.
Temp visa holders going on to get automatic permanent status is not correct at all.
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