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US rate rise; All change
Topic Started: 2 Aug 2014, 07:11 PM (4,327 Views)
Ex BP Golly
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peter fraser
3 Aug 2014, 10:02 AM
I disagree, I expect the transition to be quite smooth. I suspect that the misperceptions held by the markets are what the Fed is concerned with and that's why they are treading carefully.
Nah.

It's hard to wean bankers of the welfare tit is all it is.
WHAT WOULD EDDIE DO? MAAAATE!
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GloomBoomDoom
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Jimbo
3 Aug 2014, 03:04 PM
The big central banks are trying to print away their governments debt obligations with a combination of low interest rates, money printing (QE) and inflation "masking".
The Fed relies on the Mikes of the world to keep it's con going.
MSE
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Gossamer
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GloomBoomDoom
12 Nov 2015, 09:22 AM
The Fed relies on the Mikes of the world to keep it's con going.
Well said. They keep the illusion of the rates going up which will not occur in the near future.
Common sense is a curse - those who have it need to suffer dealing with those who don't have it.

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Nelson
Black Panther
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John F. Kennedy
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Gossamer
13 Nov 2015, 01:26 PM
Well said. They keep the illusion of the rates going up which will not occur in the near future.
Failure to raise interest rates even featured on "The Simpsons" recently, such is the pathetic joke it has become.
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Andrew Judd
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You guys seem to be reading far too much into what is going on with the Fed. It is no secret that too many people with part time jobs want full time jobs, and no secret that by the Feds own measure of inflation it is still too low to raise rates. The Fed therefore, by its own information and observations has no compelling reason to raise rates to meet the targets of its supposed dual mandate, and by those measures if it delays raising rates no harm can be done because nobody can imagine that suddenly the situation will be so out of control it will be hard to get things back to where the Fed wants

However, the housing market continues to improve, house prices up over 6% in the last year following many years now of rising house prices, restaurant and hotel bookings/activity are at record levels, consumer confidance is comfortably higher, bank failures are almost back to where they were in 2008, Delinquency rates at the agencies are almost back to where they were in 2008. And so forth.

So given the overall condition of the economy is it now appropriate to have an extremely unusual monetary policy? There is, at the very least, a justifiable basis for a debate.
Edited by Andrew Judd, 13 Nov 2015, 06:43 PM.
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newjez
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John F. Kennedy
13 Nov 2015, 02:00 PM
Failure to raise interest rates even featured on "The Simpsons" recently, such is the pathetic joke it has become.
Since when have the Simpsons been lagging in their commentary of the US state of affairs?

They are effectively a current affairs program.

I'm not that much interested in when they will raise rates. I expect it to be Dec, but if not then, then soon.

I'm much more interested in what will happen. As markets fell last time the fed didn't raise rates, could they rise if they did? Or is it a given that they will fall?
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
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Andrew Judd
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The Great Recession?

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Edited by Andrew Judd, 14 Nov 2015, 03:56 AM.
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Ex BP Golly
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Andrew Judd
13 Nov 2015, 03:54 PM
The Fed therefore, by its own information and observations has no compelling reason to raise rates to meet the targets of its supposed dual mandate, and by those measures if it delays raising rates no harm can be done because nobody can imagine that suddenly the situation will be so out of control it will be hard to get things back to where the Fed wants


Ahem. Things are so out of control, the Fed is in a place it definitely doesn't want to be in.

But you make up whatever little stories you want because it's nice to be comfortable and relaxed.
WHAT WOULD EDDIE DO? MAAAATE!
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Black Panther
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Edited by Black Panther, 14 Nov 2015, 04:22 PM.
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Andrew Judd
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Ex BP Golly
14 Nov 2015, 08:05 AM
Ahem. Things are so out of control, the Fed is in a place it definitely doesn't want to be in.

But you make up whatever little stories you want because it's nice to be comfortable and relaxed.
What I was getting at was it is clear that inflation is not so out of control that if the fed waits it will cause them difficulties they will regret.

So, at the moment for the purpose of the dual mandate, there is no reason to raise rates at all and there is not much secret about that.

Other parts of the economy are however doing very well and the zero rates are beginning to look strange in that context





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