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US rate rise; All change
Topic Started: 2 Aug 2014, 07:11 PM (4,324 Views)
newjez
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http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ambroseevans-pritchard/100027832/world-is-at-inflexion-point-as-fed-tightening-looms/

I used to sail surf cats on the swan for fun. Not sure if they still do it, but I'll have to take my kids next time we visit. One important lesson I learned was, when you change direction, you duck!
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
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economist
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newjez
2 Aug 2014, 07:11 PM
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ambroseevans-pritchard/100027832/world-is-at-inflexion-point-as-fed-tightening-looms/

I used to sail surf cats on the swan for fun. Not sure if they still do it, but I'll have to take my kids next time we visit. One important lesson I learned was, when you change direction, you duck!
The fed will not raise rates in the next 12 months and likely longer. The outlook is still negative. I could wax lyical about the hedgmoney position which is still ok but there will be a few nervous decision makers in New York thinking about the next US election.

We live in a time of change for the planet and humanity...

Always follow the money...

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herbie
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economist
3 Aug 2014, 12:02 AM
The fed will not raise rates in the next 12 months and likely longer. The outlook is still negative. I could wax lyical about the hedgmoney position which is still ok but there will be a few nervous decision makers in New York thinking about the next US election.

We live in a time of change for the planet and humanity...

Always follow the money...
Not disagreeing with you; Just making a comment:

My favourite stock market trader who comments on what he's up to, who has poo hooed the bear type dudes for years and who I've not seen get things wrong yet (which IS pretty damn extraordinary/exceptional), announced he was running for cover about a week ago.
A Professional Demographer to an amateur demographer: "negative natural increase will never outweigh the positive net migration"
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Jimbo
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economist
3 Aug 2014, 12:02 AM
The fed will not raise rates in the next 12 months and likely longer. The outlook is still negative. I could wax lyical about the hedgmoney position which is still ok but there will be a few nervous decision makers in New York thinking about the next US election.

We live in a time of change for the planet and humanity...

Always follow the money...
Agreed, the Fed will not raise rates because they can't. They have spent the last couple of years playing interest rate poker. They bluff that they will tighten and then find a plausible excuse not to tighten. The BoE are playing the same game.
Always follow the money (fuck the currency).
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be :?: rising.
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herbie
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Jimbo
3 Aug 2014, 01:21 AM
Agreed, the Fed will not raise rates because they can't. They have spent the last couple of years playing interest rate poker. They bluff that they will tighten and then find a plausible excuse not to tighten. The BoE are playing the same game.
Always follow the money (fuck the currency).
Then your having moved into Au will be pointless Jimbo - If you're correct. But I'm not convinced you will be correct - So your move into Au (as a Aussie) could well be a good move regardless - If you get my drift? :)
Edited by herbie, 3 Aug 2014, 01:26 AM.
A Professional Demographer to an amateur demographer: "negative natural increase will never outweigh the positive net migration"
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Jimbo
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herbie
3 Aug 2014, 01:16 AM
Not disagreeing with you; Just making a comment:

My favourite stock market trader who comments on what he's up to, who has poo hooed the bear type dudes for years and who I've not seen get things wrong yet (which IS pretty damn extraordinary/exceptional), announced he was running for cover about a week ago.
Many of the doomsayers are right wing Christian nutjobs but there are some common sense doomsayers out there as well. My favourite doomsayer is my smartphone calculator. It tells me every time I do the numbers that they just don't add up.
The USA can't go from 85 bill a month of QE (which is in effect a negative interest rate) to zero QE and an interest rate rise without blowing their currency and economy to kingdom come.
herbie
3 Aug 2014, 01:26 AM
Then your having moved into Au will be pointless Jimbo - If you're correct. But I'm not convinced you will be correct - So your move into Au (as a Aussie) could well be a good move regardless - If you get my drift? :)
I get your drift. But Au is never pointless.
Edited by Jimbo, 3 Aug 2014, 01:35 AM.
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be :?: rising.
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herbie
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Jimbo
3 Aug 2014, 01:30 AM
I get your drift. But Au is never pointless.
Seems to me that both you and my favourite stock market trader have both ducked for cover at pretty much the same time. Which is also what Newjez was suggesting could be wise?
A Professional Demographer to an amateur demographer: "negative natural increase will never outweigh the positive net migration"
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Jimbo
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newjez
2 Aug 2014, 07:11 PM
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ambroseevans-pritchard/100027832/world-is-at-inflexion-point-as-fed-tightening-looms/

I used to sail surf cats on the swan for fun. Not sure if they still do it, but I'll have to take my kids next time we visit. One important lesson I learned was, when you change direction, you duck!
They still rent them out in South Perth. Years ago they could be seen everywhere but now it is mainly bogans on jetskis.
herbie
3 Aug 2014, 01:42 AM
Seems to me that both you and my favourite stock market trader have both ducked for cover at pretty much the same time. Which is also what Newjez was suggesting could be wise?
It is hard to know what cover is at the moment but property is one (although I am a bear) and Au is another (portable, fungible, divisible, shiny). I also rate baked beans and Tim Tams as stores of value/energy.
What you don't want to be in at the moment is someone elses liability. That rules out cash, stocks, bonds, GLD and IOU's in general.
Edited by Jimbo, 3 Aug 2014, 01:51 AM.
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be :?: rising.
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newjez
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Jimbo
3 Aug 2014, 01:42 AM
They still rent them out in South Perth. Years ago they could be seen everywhere but now it is mainly bogans on jetskis.

It is hard to know what cover is at the moment but property is one (although I am a bear) and Au is another (portable, fungible, divisible, shiny). I also rate baked beans and Tim Tams as stores of value/energy.
What you don't want to be in at the moment is someone elses liability. That rules out cash, stocks, bonds, GLD and IOU's in general.
I never saw the attraction of cans of baked beans in a bunker.

BoE was looking likely this year, but housing has come off the boil. Election in 2015, its anyone's guess.

US rate rise will be like porcupines making love.
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
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peter fraser
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Jimbo
3 Aug 2014, 01:30 AM
The USA can't go from 85 bill a month of QE (which is in effect a negative interest rate) to zero QE and an interest rate rise without blowing their currency and economy to kingdom come.
I disagree, I expect the transition to be quite smooth. I suspect that the misperceptions held by the markets are what the Fed is concerned with and that's why they are treading carefully.

Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
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