Noted you also stated that not all bubbles have to burst. By this do you mean some can slowly deflate, like the Japanese bubble?
What I am saying is that a bubble isn't a bubble until after it has burst. There may be a Japanese bubble but we won't know if it is a bubble until after it pops. It doesn't really matter if a bubble takes a long time to deflate, the end result is the same. It is the difference between dying very slowly and painfully or just dropping dead on the spot. End result is you are dead either way.
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be rising.
So do you think the government worker bubble is popping in canberra? Are they going through with all those mass layoffs they had in the pipeline. Must be some reason why rental prices and sale prices are falling.
You're being a bit silly goldy. Public service numbers trend up for a while then they have some cuts, then they trend up again. The number of PS staff going from Canberra this year is small compared with the number that were laid off under the previous government. In 12 months or so numbers will start to climb again.
So do you think the government worker bubble is popping in canberra? Are they going through with all those mass layoffs they had in the pipeline. Must be some reason why rental prices and sale prices are falling.
None of the bearish sites I read have EVER made a disclaimer that bubbles are hard to predict or not and exact science in their bubble rants.
It's only after they have tortured the truth to death and skull fucked it's corpse that they will slip in a few vague references such as "our timing is a bit off", and quickly produce a new time frame for the bubble to burst.
This is how to deflate the Australian housing bubble.
1. The Federal govt offer to pay the servicing costs of new land if the states impose LVT on those blocks and remit a fraction over say 30 years to repay the Fed spend. If Joe wants he can bundle up that stream of income and sell it to investors.
2. This new supply will soften new house prices, without attacking them directly and get housing construction moving.
3. Limit negative gearing on new residential investment to new builds.
4. Limit off shore investment and temp resident investment to new builds.
5. Have APRA require the banks to start winding down the use of wholesale money for residential lending from 35-40% to zero percent over 7-8 years.
6. Off shore investors hungry for exposure to Oz property can use no guaranteed RMBS on new builds.
No. 5 is the best form of macro-prudential as it naturally limits the investment into existing residential housing to what can be raised domestically.
Holding down rates but trying to limit access to them is unjust. Why should existing debt holders be subsidised by the rest of the community while blocking access to the lurk to new contestants.
The natural rise in rates due to No. 5 should be enough gentle discouragement for unwise investment.
Either this is a lie, or everything you have posted on this forum after I joined is a lie.
Oh Deary me.
Matey, are you becoming obsessed with me?
Silly question really.
Fill in the blanks Matey.
See if you can.
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be rising.
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