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Businesses closing down in Sydney
Topic Started: 1 Aug 2014, 06:34 PM (2,851 Views)
roberto
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lulldapull
2 Aug 2014, 09:18 PM
I can't believe you saying this now Roberto! How dare you...... :mad:

Don't say bad things like this..........it's bad for sentiment. :mad:
The economy is either growing or collapsing, and it isn't growing. I can't think of a single economic measure that has made a new high since the GFC struck, with the exception of the number of people on unemployment benefits, yet our population continues to grow. Why don't people face these facts? How are we as a nation expected to pay back trillions of dollars in household debt in a failing economy. It's just absurd to even consider the possibility since most of the debt is what stimulated the economy in the first place.

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Dr Watson
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roberto
4 Aug 2014, 09:00 AM
The economy is either growing or collapsing
... or stagnating.
The trouble with the world is that the stupid are cocksure and the intelligent are full of doubt — Bertrand Russell
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cokatoo56
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Dana
4 Aug 2014, 08:35 AM
We could say the same about speculation in shares, gold, artwork, or anything really. All you are saying is an investment is only worthwhile if it returns a profit.
investment and speculation are 2 different things.
investment stimulates the economy and is good for the country and the people, whereas speculation is not. speculation profits a very few who are already richer than they need to be. These few speculators have insider information and know they will keep winning. They have the power to corrupt politicians and media to influence the global opinion. The "average" citizen who just read the MSM thinks this or that investment is a good one, but doesn't know what really is happening once we have switched to the speculation game, because everything becomes about cheat, and information and stats manipulation.
speculation is about trades that are uncorrelated with the real economy.
and the property business in Oz is more a speculation business than an investment business. Plenty of factors confirm that fact (price over incomes ratio, oz prices vs other countries prices etc...).
When a business/industry turns into speculation, there have to be losers sooner or later.

We don't necessarily have to "say the same about shares, gold, artwork and anything really".
We can indeed for commodities for instance : the amount traded at the chicago stock exchange is 20 to 50 times the value for commodities exchanged in real. knowing that, how can you believe that commodities are rightly priced ?
We can say the same for shares, because of derivatives. when you trade derivatives, you only speculate, whereas when you buy a company share, you invest in that company, that helps the company to grow.
That is speculation, and it is easy to understand that it can't go that way forever.
It's Just like the madoff ponzi scheme couldn't keep going forever.
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Foxy
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Zero is coming...

Dana
4 Aug 2014, 08:35 AM
We could say the same about speculation in shares, gold, artwork, or anything really. All you are saying is an investment is only worthwhile if it returns a profit.
No both parties are fools.
The government takes it's cut every time the fools try to trick each other.
Peter
http://www.afr.com/content/dam/images/g/n/2/1/u/8/image.imgtype.afrArticleInline.620x0.png/1456285515560.png
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van
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Quote:
 
How are we as a nation expected to pay back trillions of dollars in household debt in a failing economy.


Easy, you don't have to pay off the debt, just service it, with money always being devalued servicing the debt is easy.

One of my friends bought a unit off the plan for $550 a year ago, the last unit there in the complex sold for $650.

Property is a superior investment as it allows for leverage at the lowest possible interest rate, any other kind of borrowing such as personal loans the interest rate will be double. You can not do this with shares.

Government is 100% behind it and will back buyers, investors & banks.

The banking system is solid with the $360 Billion bank bailout which equates to $15,000 for every man, woman & child in Australia. Interesting when other countries did stress tests on their banking systems, they identified weaknesses and recommended areas to improve upon, here they saw that the banking system was unstable, instead of recommending areas for the banks to improve their stability, they just said keep doing what you are doing and we'll provide bailouts for you to fall back on.

The money will keep flowing, when it does finally collapse, the inflation combined with low interest rates will effectively mean the owners just pay back the property with hyper-inflated currency. End result, property investment always wins.

The only bubble is the value of cash, everything deprecates against it.
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John Frum
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cokatoo56
4 Aug 2014, 05:05 PM
investment and speculation are 2 different things.
investment stimulates the economy and is good for the country and the people, whereas speculation is not. speculation profits a very few who are already richer than they need to be. These few speculators have insider information and know they will keep winning. They have the power to corrupt politicians and media to influence the global opinion. The "average" citizen who just read the MSM thinks this or that investment is a good one, but doesn't know what really is happening once we have switched to the speculation game, because everything becomes about cheat, and information and stats manipulation.
speculation is about trades that are uncorrelated with the real economy.
and the property business in Oz is more a speculation business than an investment business. Plenty of factors confirm that fact (price over incomes ratio, oz prices vs other countries prices etc...).
When a business/industry turns into speculation, there have to be losers sooner or later.

We don't necessarily have to "say the same about shares, gold, artwork and anything really".
We can indeed for commodities for instance : the amount traded at the chicago stock exchange is 20 to 50 times the value for commodities exchanged in real. knowing that, how can you believe that commodities are rightly priced ?
We can say the same for shares, because of derivatives. when you trade derivatives, you only speculate, whereas when you buy a company share, you invest in that company, that helps the company to grow.
That is speculation, and it is easy to understand that it can't go that way forever.
It's Just like the madoff ponzi scheme couldn't keep going forever.
Sorry but most of this is bunk.

Insider traders are not the speculators. Speculation by definition is thinking an asset is going to continue to rise in price.

When Goldman sold debt in the form of CDOs to their clients while at the same time betting against them with Credit Default Swaps, they weren't speculating because they knew the bet would pay off, because they designed the CDOs themselves and knew they were worthless. It was their clients who were speculating (on the high yielding CDOs not defaulting) and it was their clients that got burnt.

Also derivatives are not just for speculation. They're often used by investors to bet against a market they believe is being driven up by speculation, rather than sound 'fundamentals'



"It were not best that we should all think alike; it is difference of opinion that makes horse races." - Mark Twain on why he avoids discussing house prices over at MacroBusiness.
"Buy land, they're not making any more of it." - Georgist Land Tax proponent Mark Twain laughing in his grave at humourless idiots like skamy that continually use this quip to justify housing bubbles.
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roberto
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Dr Watson
4 Aug 2014, 09:11 AM
roberto
4 Aug 2014, 09:00 AM
The economy is either growing or collapsing
... or stagnating.
No, that is just a media word used to cover the fact it is collapsing, or declining if you like. Stagnating implies it is neither growing or collapsing and economies don't balance themselves like ponds of water do.
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Dr Watson
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roberto
4 Aug 2014, 07:30 PM
No, that is just a media word used to cover the fact it is collapsing, or declining if you like. Stagnating implies it is neither growing or collapsing and economies don't balance themselves like ponds of water do.
Maybe you mean "contracting". "Collapsing" is a touch dramatic.
The trouble with the world is that the stupid are cocksure and the intelligent are full of doubt — Bertrand Russell
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Billy Jack
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The Duke of Brisbane Town

peter fraser
1 Aug 2014, 10:00 PM
cokatoo56
1 Aug 2014, 09:22 PM
yes, and we're talking about premium locations here. local businesses are closing down at premium locations. I am no economy expert, but I see a tangible sign here that prices won't go much higher, and may even collapse.
logically, if struggling businesses close down, well, commercial property owners won't keep their property empty forever, and will release it on the market. and these business owners deprived from their incomes won't be able to cope with their personal home mortgage loan.
we should start seeing more people not being able to pay their mortgage back, selling their home, and more homes for sale on the market means prices going down

i saw quite a few empty shops for lease in ashfield and burwood too, which are usually dynamic, populated suburbs
Are they mainly coffee shops, cafe's and restaurants?
Ye's friend. And allow me to respond in like fashion, in honour of yer abilitie's learnin' from yer spelling's and such.

"They are mostly restaurant's cafe's and coffee shop's and other place's that retard realtor/FIRE investor's like you who don't know an apostrophe from yer a'sshole go to speak about yer Daddy Ole Big Pant's property investment's and such.

Conclusive proof that the investor's like yerself aint got an IQ about 50 right there friends.

And it make's me sad friend's.

But tell me something friend. Did yer actually finish grade school to year seven? Because it sure don't look like it.
Mustapha Mond
4 Aug 2014, 12:36 AM
roberto
2 Aug 2014, 07:52 AM
I don't frequent coffee shops and the like myself but my business does take me into the blue colllar industrial estates in and around Brisbane. I can tell you first hand, these have been gutted over the last 4 years. The for lease signs are a good indicator but many businesses are simply empty but with the old signage still in place so that a complex doesn't look like a ghost town.

It's a bit of real estate trickery I suspect. The owner may have 3 identical industrial units side by side, all vacant, but only one appears up for lease. It's a lot easier to rent out a premises if it looks like other business is being conducted there. A lot of these industrial areas were fabricators and suppliers to the construction industry and as it has gone down the tube, so have they.

There is no turn around in sight and soon I think we will reach some kind of critical mass. Very bad times ahead for Australia unfortunately.
The next trick is to put a "friend or relative" into a unit and "rent" it to them.
Then sell the unit with a "good" tennant.
Old tricks but i am an old dog.
So bring it on baby.
Peter
You and Baden Clay friend - peas in a pod.

Dog is the right word friend, and it makes me sad.
Edited by Billy Jack, 8 Aug 2014, 12:44 AM.
Tell Billy Jack the Truth
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