Some of this is just not true. There was a stagnant and dropping property market throughout the mining investment boom, there was no rush of investors buying property, despit the ridiculously high rental returns.
Have you been reading that nonsense they sell over at Macrobusiness? People make money from selling these doomsday scenarios, they have done this all of my long life
Many of the migrants moving from 2003 / 2007 were looking at unbelievable exchange rates. Cashed up from property booms in the UK et al, they had cash to pump into the perth property market. A few years later on, the exchange rate is not so good, and the market starts to flatten. Coincidence? Having migrants is one thing. Having cashed up migrants is another. Having no migrants, is again something else. I really don't know how you can justify your position. The fundamentals don't stack up.
Sorry to hear about that Herbie, bet he was an absolute charlatan. You know what they say about doors and windows, wish you the best for whatever new changes and opportunities are coming along for ya
Actual mining is going gangbusters, exploration and mining construction is declining was the point I was making. Perth does well with actual mining as lots of mining headquarters are here, and lots of royalties etc
Yes, absolute charlatans know that the best way for them to run a successful, profitable organisation is to sack valuable, experienced workers in an environment where such workers can be difficult to come by because it's going ganbusters didn't ya know?
But yes, I'm sorry to hear that Herbie.
Quote:
I really don't know how you can justify your position. The fundamentals don't stack up.
Just seems to be an argument by omission - take a small grain of truth in an overall situation and then bang on relentlessly about the bit you have framed in an attempt to create the impression that this is representative of the entire situation.
A bit like when it was pointed out that the unemployment rate fell during the period covered by the awful Workchoices legislation. The fact that unemployment had already been falling for quite some time before the legislation was introduced and continued to fall after it was repealed is a crucial fact that will weigh on your judgement as to whether or not it had any positive effect on employment outcomes, but one that can be drowned out as long as you just keep arguing long and loud that unemployment fell during that period while ignoring that it also fell before and after.
So I guess it's just a case of which is more important to you - acknowledging the facts or winning an argument right or wrong. As I've often said, an argument can sway a jury to believe something but cannot actually alter reality.
Lulldapul do you ever get tired of peoples tales of drama and never ending doom and gloom. You have been on here a long time saying this stuff.
Well he obviously got in early. As they say in investment circles, better a year early than a day late. You have to flesh this saying out for property investment where the repayment time frame is typically 30 years. Just imagine if we are on the eve of a global depression. What would the property markets look like a decade or two? Frightful to think when you look back at the depression and war years after the 1920's property bubble.
So many parallels so many parallels...
Shadow was hopelessly wrong about the Gold Bull Market. What else is he wrong about?
From my own perspective, I am doing some work on a Gorgon contract at the moment and I finish up around December. Up until about two months ago I was being spammed by recruitment agencies advising me of vacancies but that has ground to a halt. I was talking to a boilermaker mate of mine earlier and he is working in Henderson but only until October and he has nothing lined up either. It isn't armageddon in Perth at the moment and official unemployment is steady but there is an uneasy feeling amongst my colleagues that things ain't what they were.
That is much more like reality than some of these super gloomy people would try to make us believe.
My daughter's up on Barrow as an engineer and the wages and conditions offered for new staff are reduced but still good. Sad news this WE hey? I do worry about the long term effect of these long hours and regimented lifestyle, I will be happy when she is back home.
Perth is coming off the investment high and moving into city building and residential construction. There is already a repeat of some trade shortages here and some trades prices are rising again eg brickies.
Recently, I had extreme difficulty getting landscapers for example, people were just too busy.
WA is still at 4% growth and even its reduced Capex spending would be the envy of most economies. Sometimes people just see boom or doom when most of the time it is just business as usual and for Perth most of the time that is exceptionally good by world standards.
IMHO the housing market still has many homes that are selling for way lower than peak, this will not last forever in this growing wealthy city. There has got to be more upside risk than downside in property prices over the next few years.
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993 The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
Many of the migrants moving from 2003 / 2007 were looking at unbelievable exchange rates. Cashed up from property booms in the UK et al, they had cash to pump into the perth property market. A few years later on, the exchange rate is not so good, and the market starts to flatten. Coincidence? Having migrants is one thing. Having cashed up migrants is another. Having no migrants, is again something else. I really don't know how you can justify your position. The fundamentals don't stack up.
I know someone who moved from England in around 2007. He came here with 200k pounds which back then was worth around $490k. He bought a nice place with $300k down and spent the rest on furniture, cars, holidays and so on. The northern suburbs boomed as cashed up poms arrived in their droves. That situation won't repeat because the same amount of pounds now only buys $360k.
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be rising.
Well he obviously got in early. As they say in investment circles, better a year early than a day late. You have to flesh this saying out for property investment where the repayment time frame is typically 30 years. Just imagine if we are on the eve of a global depression. What would the property markets look like a decade or two? Frightful to think when you look back at the depression and war years after the 1920's property bubble.
So many parallels so many parallels...
I come from a poor country and have just returned from the UK where poverty is real and in your face.
Australia is very very lucky and most people are now emerging from the fear of the doomsters. Anyone who thinks that the rich Australian homeowner is just about to hold a firesale for their home is living in a fantasy.
There was a serious risk of an attack on housing in 2007/2008 but it did not emerge to any great extent thankfully. It will not emerge now after such along period of stagnation- there is too much new construction coming up and if you follow the money you will see where we are headed.
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993 The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
That is much more like reality than some of these super gloomy people would try to make us believe.
My daughter's up on Barrow as an engineer and the wages and conditions offered for new staff are reduced but still good. Sad news this WE hey? I do worry about the long term effect of these long hours and regimented lifestyle, I will be happy when she is back home.
Perth is coming off the investment high and moving into city building and residential construction. There is already a repeat of some trade shortages here and some trades prices are rising again eg brickies.
Recently, I had extreme difficulty getting landscapers for example, people were just too busy.
WA is still at 4% growth and even its reduced Capex spending would be the envy of most economies. Sometimes people just see boom or doom when most of the time it is just business as usual and for Perth most of the time that is exceptionally good by world standards.
IMHO the housing market still has many homes that are selling for way lower than peak, this will not last forever in this growing wealthy city. There has got to be more upside risk than downside in property prices over the next few years.
Residential construction is huge at the moment. My mate is a brickie and he is turning down work. The big driver of this is the smaller block sizes on new releases making new build more affordable. Plus you have the incentives for FHO's. Buying new is being touted by the developers as cheaper than renting and that is not far off from the truth. I think this will hit the established property market quite hard. Stamp duty changes for first time buyers of established homes put an extra 7.5k on a 500k house. Every completed new build equals an empty rental property and where new migrants filled the gap, falling migration is leaving these places empty. I am watching the local rental market and vacant rental numbers are ticking up every week. I believe this will reduce interest among potential investors (no good owning a rental if you can't rent it out).
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be rising.
That situation won't repeat because the same amount of pounds now only buys $360k.
In fact it may reverse if there is a lack of jobs. Some of those poms who came may be homesick and the move in exchange rate may make going home a very tasty option.
there is too much new construction coming up and if you follow the money you will see where we are headed.
New construction equals greater supply as renters enter their newly built homes. Empty rentals are negative for the investment market and Perth has a lot of investment properties. I expect a downturn in prices in Perth.
zaph
3 Aug 2014, 11:22 AM
In fact it may reverse if there is a lack of jobs. Some of those poms who came may be homesick and the move in exchange rate may make going home a very tasty option.
Apart from London, housing hasn't done much in the UK since 2007 so a reverse move would make sense for a lot of Poms.
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be rising.
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