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Perth Median Down 17,500 from Peak.; Sales Down. Rural Area Sales Woeful.
Topic Started: 30 Jul 2014, 10:11 PM (5,758 Views)
MassPsychology
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Black Panther
31 Jul 2014, 08:52 PM
Perth will match Sydney in 5 years. Once again the Bears are so far off the mark its lamentable ...
How? The mining is already drying up bro
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newjez
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MassPsychology
1 Aug 2014, 12:14 AM
How? The mining is already drying up bro
Not in the parallel universe it's not! You just don't get it do you?
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
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Lef-tee
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Careful! BP has been correct so far that Australians would not care that opportunities for home ownership for coming generations are being destroyed.

Of course, there were only ever two possibilities - yes or no, so........
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skamy
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o2sd
31 Jul 2014, 06:49 PM
So you've turned bearish then?
No kept one and sold one, we were going to live in one and rent one but we fell in love with another part of Perth.
MassPsychology
1 Aug 2014, 12:14 AM
How? The mining is already drying up bro
No actually there has been billions spent in WA on mines that are just starting to bring home the bacon. All those huge volumes of exports help in the city.

Who told you mining was drying up?
Edited by skamy, 1 Aug 2014, 11:51 PM.
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993
The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
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herbie
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skamy
1 Aug 2014, 11:45 PM
Who told you mining was drying up?
The dude who sacked me ... :)
A Professional Demographer to an amateur demographer: "negative natural increase will never outweigh the positive net migration"
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Veritas
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skamy
1 Aug 2014, 11:45 PM
No kept one and sold one, we were going to live in one and rent one but we fell in love with another part of Perth.

No actually there has been billions spent in WA on mines that are just starting to bring home the bacon. All those huge volumes of exports help in the city.

Who told you mining was drying up?
Yeah, that explains why people are losing their jobs in mining hand over fist and leaving the State in their droves as evidenced by the rocketing rental vacancy rate and falling house prices.

Is that what you mean by the bacon being brought home?

:re:

Quote:
 
AS many as 75,000 resource-related jobs will be lost in the next couple of years as the industry’s $450 billion investment splurge on new capacity winds down, according to research by ANZ.

The toll on job numbers in the industry, as the switch from the job-intensive construction investment moves to the job-light operational phase, means the bank’s economists think there will be little improvement in the nation’s 5.8 per cent jobless rate.

ANZ senior economist corporate and commercial Justin Fabo said he expected 50,000 to 75,000 high-paid resources-related jobs to be shed across the economy during the next couple of years, creating a headwind to overall employment growth.
Edited by Veritas, 2 Aug 2014, 01:05 AM.
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?

The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly.
Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
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skamy
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herbie
2 Aug 2014, 12:50 AM
The dude who sacked me ... :)


Sorry to hear about that Herbie, bet he was an absolute charlatan. You know what they say about doors and windows, wish you the best for whatever new changes and opportunities are coming along for ya

Actual mining is going gangbusters, exploration and mining construction is declining was the point I was making. Perth does well with actual mining as lots of mining headquarters are here, and lots of royalties etc
Veritas
2 Aug 2014, 01:02 AM
Yeah, that explains why people are losing their jobs in mining hand over fist and leaving the State in their droves as evidenced by the rocketing rental vacancy rate and falling house prices.

Is that what you mean by the bacon being brought home?

:re:

This investment built huge mines for the state that were not there before, there are loads more workers etc needed. Plus there is loads more ore to export and to tax. Just because we had a crazy few years during the construction does not take away that massive positive for the State.

House prices are still hardly back to where they were before all these new mines were built, why on earth would they fall now with all this extra money and jobs?

Rents are falling because the living away from home allowances are gone and lots of people are building or buying, they had also got very inflated with the construction work and lack of new building for the last few years. Land prices are rising and property prices are stable with most good areas still going strong. New unit sales are very strong too (watch that one coz if that goes on for a few years you may indeed get your price crash).

Do you ever get out to home opens? Sometimes I think you live in a different city to me.
Edited by skamy, 2 Aug 2014, 04:25 AM.
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993
The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
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roberto
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Mining slowdown hits WA commercial market
July 30, 2014

THE wind down of the mining investment boom is hurting Western Australia's commercial property market, with growing vacancies in office space. CONFIDENCE is weak among all sectors of Australia's commercial property market except for CBD hotels, figures from National Australia Bank on Wednesday show.
http://www.news.com.au/finance/business/mining-slowdown-hits-wa-commercial-market/story-e6frfkur-1227007607018


Mining tax revenue was only $600,000 in June quarter

The Australian|
July 30, 2014

LABOR’S mining tax has reaped only $600,000 in the past three months, new figures reveal, as Joe Hockey increases pressure on Clive Palmer’s senators to pass his repeal plan.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/mining-energy/mining-tax-revenue-was-only-600000-in-june-quarter/story-e6frg9df-1227006953111

American miner set to divest Australian iron ore
July 30, 2014


The fifth biggest iron ore business in Australia is in limbo after an apparent boardroom coup saw a hedge fund take control of American company Cliffs Natural Resources.
Cliffs has struggled for profitability in recent times as prices for its two main products, iron ore and coal, slumped. The austere conditions have prompted some shareholders to campaign for a change of control and a break-up of the assets...

Mr Littlewood said Casablanca would try to sell the Australian assets for between $US1 billion and $US1.5 billion, but the market value was possibly closer to a range between $US400 million and $US200 million. He tipped early 2015 as the best time to divest the assets.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/mining-and-resources/american-miner-set-to-divest-australian-iron-ore-20140730-zyf9a.html
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Jimbo
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skamy
2 Aug 2014, 04:13 AM
Actual mining is going gangbusters, exploration and mining construction is declining was the point I was making. Perth does well with actual mining as lots of mining headquarters are here, and lots of royalties etc

This investment built huge mines for the state that were not there before, there are loads more workers etc needed. Plus there is loads more ore to export and to tax. Just because we had a crazy few years during the construction does not take away that massive positive for the State.

House prices are still hardly back to where they were before all these new mines were built, why on earth would they fall now with all this extra money and jobs?

Rents are falling because the living away from home allowances are gone and lots of people are building or buying, they had also got very inflated with the construction work and lack of new building for the last few years. Land prices are rising and property prices are stable with most good areas still going strong. New unit sales are very strong too (watch that one coz if that goes on for a few years you may indeed get your price crash).

Do you ever get out to home opens? Sometimes I think you live in a different city to me.
The big driver of the Perth market has been international and interstate migration during the mining investment boom. This created high rental demand and fueled investment buying. A lot of the investment buyers are themselves FIFO workers earning big bucks for their normally average paying jobs.
The EPC's and Miners had a "money no object" attitude to construction such was the rush to get sites ready for production.
I did six months on one job and earned about 3 years money (no shit).
The problem with the mining production phase is that it has created a glut of ore for market and pushed down the price. Production requires far fewer workers than construction. There are also a lot of cost cutting initiatives being undertaken by the big miners. Driverless Haul Packs etc.
New workers (new employment contracts) are being offered less money and less favourable employment conditions.
Without the magnet of the mining construction boom, fewer people are coming to WA. (Victoria to WA has turned net negative).
The WA budget has been revised a couple of times recently due to falling royalties even though exports are up.
WA is also over budget and in debt for already completed infrastructure and the new stadium and Elizabeth Quay projects will swallow up a further chunk.
There is little scope for a further public spending spree to keep people employed.
Further, WA also changed stamp duty concessions for FHO's in favour of new build property and a mini housing construction boom is underway. As each new home is completed, I assume that a rental will be vacated adding to the growing vacancy rate.
The rental market has changed drastically over the last two years with most agents only doing viewings by appointment instead of home opens.
In my local area, just looking at realestate.com,au, vacant rental properties have risen 20% since the beginning of June. Rents are also coming down.
I am also seeing an increase in properties for sale with a greater number of those have sitting tenants.
A lot of investors are also reliant on FIFO work to cover their rental losses and it seems that everyone on site has three or four NG properties (at least).
So when you put it all together, it doesn't look pretty for WA property in the near future.



Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be :?: rising.
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newjez
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Jimbo
2 Aug 2014, 02:43 PM
The big driver of the Perth market has been international and interstate migration during the mining investment boom. This created high rental demand and fueled investment buying. A lot of the investment buyers are themselves FIFO workers earning big bucks for their normally average paying jobs.
The EPC's and Miners had a "money no object" attitude to construction such was the rush to get sites ready for production.
I did six months on one job and earned about 3 years money (no shit).
The problem with the mining production phase is that it has created a glut of ore for market and pushed down the price. Production requires far fewer workers than construction. There are also a lot of cost cutting initiatives being undertaken by the big miners. Driverless Haul Packs etc.
New workers (new employment contracts) are being offered less money and less favourable employment conditions.
Without the magnet of the mining construction boom, fewer people are coming to WA. (Victoria to WA has turned net negative).
The WA budget has been revised a couple of times recently due to falling royalties even though exports are up.
WA is also over budget and in debt for already completed infrastructure and the new stadium and Elizabeth Quay projects will swallow up a further chunk.
There is little scope for a further public spending spree to keep people employed.
Further, WA also changed stamp duty concessions for FHO's in favour of new build property and a mini housing construction boom is underway. As each new home is completed, I assume that a rental will be vacated adding to the growing vacancy rate.
The rental market has changed drastically over the last two years with most agents only doing viewings by appointment instead of home opens.
In my local area, just looking at realestate.com,au, vacant rental properties have risen 20% since the beginning of June. Rents are also coming down.
I am also seeing an increase in properties for sale with a greater number of those have sitting tenants.
A lot of investors are also reliant on FIFO work to cover their rental losses and it seems that everyone on site has three or four NG properties (at least).
So when you put it all together, it doesn't look pretty for WA property in the near future.



Good sound logical post. When you say the near future, when in your estimation will these imbalances be re balanced?
Edited by newjez, 2 Aug 2014, 03:00 PM.
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
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