I did think rates would go up sooner, but that's one call that I'm very happy to have gotten wrong! The lower rates go the better for me.
And like I said, locking when I did still worked out well, because at the time, and for about year and a half after, I was locked below the variable rate, and it also allowed me to borrow more than I could have done otherwise due to the buffer thing I mentioned before.
You were unable to see it because you were not looking at the bigger picture shadow and what is really going on around you. You mistake shows you are unable to see what is happening moving toward , both on interest rates and exactly the same for house prices.
You do know that interest rates are at lows not seen since the great depression, and the reason is because our economy and that of all western style economies has not looked this bad since the great depression.
But the difference between now and the great depression is we had a way to move forward. We had our wheat and wool industry that pulled us out of the great depression. We also had our motor Industry to grow our economy. And the greatest threat this time round is we have to so.show try and compete with cheap foreign labour, something we did not have to deal with during or coming out of the great depression.
So you all now, the reasons for the great depression are similar to today. And that was because people were taking on too much debt and speculating on price growth. That was in the 1920s. When the only thing people bought on credit here was houses.
But compared to the debt levels of today and back then , there really is no comparison whatsoever. We have25-40 year mortgages with zero -5% down instead of 5 years with 20-25% down back then.
Feel free anybody to explain to me how you think we can come out of this decline with our wages the highest in the world and no way of competeing, the exact reason all our jobs and buisinesses are heading over sees now and for many years going forward. When it comes to house prices and the future, this is all you really need to know. Anybody wish to explain how we will get out of our economic decline. I will admit, with the current governments in control and now way of pissing them all off, I have no answers myself.
Shadow, along with some other posters here, find it completely incomprehensible that people might disagree with them and thus all the people who do disagree, must be the same person. It makes it easier to ignore new information.
I see. I didn't even know I was disagreeing with Shadow, maybe it came across that way. Oh well, he seemed reluctant to answer my questions in any case, so I guess I shouldn't pursue it.
I have said since 2009 that I think Sydney houses will peak close to $1M in 2015, but I might be wrong, they might keep rising. I'm not going to sell unless the fundamentals at the time say so. If prices hit $1M, but auction clearance rates are still 70%+ and vacancy rates are still low, and interest rates show no sign of rising any time soon, then I won't be selling yet regardless of some target set six or seven years prior.
as long as you are comfortable... generally speaking its a risky strategy to try pick the top with the belief you can undercut the market for a quick sale for maximum capital gain...
I see. I didn't even know I was disagreeing with Shadow, maybe it came across that way. Oh well, he seemed reluctant to answer my questions in any case, so I guess I shouldn't pursue it.
Questioning any logic is automatic disagreement, except when he/she/it can twist it in a way to make it seem like you agree completely with everything said.
"If man is to survive, he will have learned to take a delight in the essential differences between men and between cultures. He will learn that differences in ideas and attitudes are a delight, part of life's exciting variety, not something to fear." - Gene Roddenberry
"Balloon animals are a great way to teach children that the things they love dearly, may spontaneously explode" -- Lee Camp
Questioning any logic is automatic disagreement, except when he/she/it can twist it in a way to make it seem like you agree completely with everything said.
"If man is to survive, he will have learned to take a delight in the essential differences between men and between cultures. He will learn that differences in ideas and attitudes are a delight, part of life's exciting variety, not something to fear." - Gene Roddenberry
"Balloon animals are a great way to teach children that the things they love dearly, may spontaneously explode" -- Lee Camp
People. During the last Sydney downturn, which ran from 2004 through to 2007, there were about 30,000 sales in Sydney during the first year of that downturn. And even in the first few months of the downturn there were thousands of people selling each month. They were the ones who sold early before prices had fallen much.
Massive
24 Jul 2014, 09:17 PM
generally speaking its a risky strategy to try pick the top with the belief you can undercut the market for a quick sale for maximum capital gain...
It's less risky than selling too early and perhaps missing several years of strong growth.
Looks like the banks are doing the RBA's job for them.
Sub 5% fixed for five years is bound to encourage even more buyers into the already booming housing market.
How about yourself? Going to pick up some more property before the next leg up?
Looks like this one was too tough for ol shadow so I'll answer for him. No he's not, he talks and talks but the money (debt) is not where his mouth is. Like most of the bulls he is just treading water praying that the bears are wrong about the economy collapsing soon. None have bought property in yonks.
Shadow was hopelessly wrong about the Gold Bull Market. What else is he wrong about?
You mistake shows you are unable to see what is happening moving toward , both on interest rates and exactly the same for house prices.
Sydney house prices are up 25% since you sold your home thinking prices were about to crash. So I have called house prices a lot better than you, or any of the bears.
Your bad call on Sydney house prices, and then compounding that mistake by piling into gold just before it crashed, has caused you quite a lot of financial damage.
My call that interest rates would rise sooner than they have done has cost me nothing. In fact I have benefited from getting that one wrong, since lower interest rates mean stronger house price growth, and more money in my pocket.
Kulganis
24 Jul 2014, 09:10 PM
Shadow, along with some other posters here, find it completely incomprehensible that people might disagree with them and thus all the people who do disagree, must be the same person. It makes it easier to ignore new information.
Incorrect, as usual. I don't think you are the same person as anyone else. In fact most people who disagree with me are genuine single-person accounts.
But I do know that o2sd is also Curious Non Economist, Jolinar Maktub, Miles McCarthy, David McAllistair and Gen-X. I've probably missed a few too.
He doesn't make any effort to disguise his writing style so I don't think he minds that people know. Actually, Skamy often spots his new socks before I do.
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