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Christopher Joye turns bear - Australian housing bubble is now here; House prices have inflated at a 9.5% annualised pace (triple wages growth)
Topic Started: 19 Jul 2014, 01:12 PM (21,432 Views)
Chris
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Shadow
20 Jul 2014, 04:21 PM
Nope. Single incomes or household incomes, it doesn't matter. The ratio to house prices has barely changed for a decade.

The ABS data I posted earlier was actually for single incomes...

ABS House Price Index
Dec 2003: 71.6
Dec 2013: 112.4
A rise of 57%

ABS Full-time adult ordinary time earnings
Nov 2003: 939.6
Nov 2013: 1437.7
A rise of 53%

Single adult wages up 53% and house prices up 57% over the past decade - i.e. the house price to income ratio has barely changed.
BLACK AND WHITE Shadow, no indexes just simple facts. Median wage vs median house prices nationally for each year of the decade starting 2003. Then the same for household incomes as a combined total e.g. Dual incomes.

Like everything I would love to be proven wrong but I see the greatest advocates in this arena always playing with grey figures. Affordability is not and has never been a complexed issue, the average house price vs the average income, it is so basic as a foundation but it works.

See how you go, net median income (gross is irrelevant for obvious reasons) vs median house prices. Should be interesting to see how you spin this
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miw
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Ex BP Golly
20 Jul 2014, 01:57 PM
The only thing most "owners" own, is an obligation to a bank. As soon as they fail to meet their obligations, their possession is lost them.

They cannot do all sorts of things with this thing they pretend to 'own' without first seeking the banks permission, like sell it, or rent it, or demolish it, or demolish a wall, or paint it pink, or yellow or whatever colour Shady carries on about.

Only owners can do these things.
Rubbish. There is no requirement to get permission from the bank to rent out or renovate. While you have a mortgage, you are under an obligation not to decrease the value, deliberately or not, so you cannot demolish, but that's about the extent of it.

You are welcome to your own invented meaning for the word "own", but if you are out of step with the rest of the users of the language, you will have difficulty with communication. Most people are capable of dealing with the idea that you can have both assets and liabilities on your personal balance sheet.
The truth will set you free. But first, it will piss you off.
--Gloria Steinem
AREPS™
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Catweasel
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Catweasel say a mud the fly,

and mouzealot have the good old cackle at its sparring the partners.

In a multi the dimension,

it can make the hypothesis:

"Narrative can be the packaged, wrapped and sold to mental landscape by simple the linear the relationship between independent and dependent the relationship"

Of that, if squawk guru adopt narrative,

a belief systems can be put into kiln for harden.

Of the course,

from simple the inquisitive the mind,

of a regression,

would say the hogwash,

if a understanding of a more the complex,

of a drivers,

is build into model.

And of the course,

in big the fat bubble,

mouse not know what a hell going on,

and a incomes can be product,

not factor,

of big fat bubble.

And then it can have new narrative,

which torpedo what it learn in seminar.
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Shadow
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Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

Chris
20 Jul 2014, 05:48 PM
BLACK AND WHITE Shadow, no indexes just simple facts. Median wage vs median house prices nationally for each year of the decade starting 2003. Then the same for household incomes as a combined total
Yeah right, like I have nothing better to do on a Sunday evening. I posted ABS data showing national incomes have increased by almost the same amount as national house prices since 2003. If that data is too complex for you to understand than I would respectfully suggest that we are not on the same level here, and that you might benefit from a few months of study into how the ABS indices are constructed. The ABS site includes a lot of detailed explanation around how their data is gathered and compiled. Follow the links I posted and start reading, because you are the only person here who seems to be having such difficulty getting your head around the data.
Edited by Shadow, 20 Jul 2014, 06:34 PM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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ThePauk
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Diamond Member
Shoddy
if house prices are affordable, while are the FHB numbers so bad?
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Shadow
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Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

ThePauk
20 Jul 2014, 06:44 PM
Shoddy
I don't call you 'Puke'. Learn to debate like an grown-up please.

ThePauk
20 Jul 2014, 06:44 PM
if house prices are affordable, while are the FHB numbers so bad?
Because FHB data isn't being collected in those states that cancelled the FHB grants...

http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/5609.0

'FIRST HOME BUYERS

An investigation is underway to evaluate the robustness of estimates of loans to first home buyers (Table 9). In collecting this information, lenders are asked to report all loans to first home buyers. Concerns have been raised that under-reporting could occur if some lenders were only able to accurately report on those buyers receiving a first home buyer grant.

Most data on first home buyers are collected by the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) under the Financial Sector (Collection of Data) Act 2001. APRA is contacting lenders on behalf of the ABS to investigate whether lenders experience any difficulties reporting on loans to first home buyers.

The outcomes from the investigation will be published on the ABS website'
Edited by Shadow, 20 Jul 2014, 06:53 PM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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ThePauk
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Diamond Member
Shoddy
Ah I see, so the ABS data is crap. Got it. Sort of defeats your other numbers somewhat.

Puke...
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Shadow
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Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

ThePauk
20 Jul 2014, 06:53 PM
Shoddy
Ah I see, so the ABS data is crap. Got it. Sort of defeats your other numbers somewhat.
No, the ABS has acknowledged that this particular set of data has been compromised because the States cancelled the grants that had up until recently been used to calculate FHB numbers. The ABS has acknowledged the issue, launched an investigation, and will in time add the missing data if possible.

And if you can't debate like a grown up then I won't respond to your posts, in the same way I don't respond to Catweasel's nonsense.
Edited by Shadow, 20 Jul 2014, 07:00 PM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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ThePauk
Member Avatar
Diamond Member
Mr EMS
You are a speculator. You take risks above what the average Joe should do.

Do you think the 12.6% for FHB was larger by how much, maybe 15% and well below the long term avaerages....

Do you think FHB's are just plain stupid? Seems some in finance do.... this sort of crap got us into the toxic mortgage market in the first place.

“No deposit? No worries!” declares the HomeFirst website.
The one-stop shop for land, houses and mortgages was recently launched by BGC and Metricon, Australia’s biggest home builders. The site has good news for young home buyers: they can buy a new house with as little as $2500.
http://www.afr.com/p/national/the_house_deposit_high_risk_mortgages_oSMUFehA9xwDPYVj7CpfsO
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Shadow
Member Avatar
Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

ThePauk
20 Jul 2014, 07:15 PM
You are a speculator
Relevance to the discussion? You are a speculator too. You speculate on shares. You speculate on a property crash. Everyone speculates on something. So what?

Quote:
 
You take risks above what the average Joe should do
Who elected you to determine what risks average people should take?

Quote:
 
Do you think the 12.6% for FHB was larger by how much, maybe 15% and well below the long term avaerages
Official data has FHB numbers a bit below average, but not by a huge amount. My guess is if the missing data was included then FHB numbers would be above average...

Posted Image

Quote:
 
Do you think FHB's are just plain stupid?
Some are, some are not. Same as the rest of the population. Why?
Edited by Shadow, 20 Jul 2014, 07:24 PM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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