Welcome Guest [Log In] [Register]


Reply
Christopher Joye turns bear - Australian housing bubble is now here; House prices have inflated at a 9.5% annualised pace (triple wages growth)
Topic Started: 19 Jul 2014, 01:12 PM (21,415 Views)
Drgonzo
Member Avatar


Even bull poster boy Paul Bloxham is turning bearish based on his comments in the fin review over the weekend- you would have to be a die had bull not to accept reality now.

http://www.afr.com/p/business/property/property_spruikers_signal_overheating_2TXvv9qcoLHkMHTVTuBxeI
Edited by Drgonzo, 3 Aug 2014, 06:05 PM.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Blondie girl
Member Avatar


I'm interested to see whether it's gonna heat up in Brissie...
Newjerk? can you try harder than dig up another person's blog. My first promo was with Billabong and my name in English is modified with a T, am Perth born but also lived in Sydney to make my $$
It's Absolutely Fabulous if it includes brilliant locations, & high calibre tenants..what more does one want? Understand the power of the two "P"" or be financially challenged
Even better when there is family who are property mad and one is born in some entitlements.....Understand that beautiful women are the exhibitionists we crave attention, whilst hot blooded men are the voyeurs ... A stunning woman can command and takes pleasure in being noticed. Seems not too many understand what it means to hold and own props and get threatened by those who do.
Banks are considered to be law abiding and & rather boring places yeah not true . A bank balance sheet will show capital is dwarfed by their liabilities this means when a portions of loans is falling its problems for the bank.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Drgonzo
Member Avatar


No, it won't.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
peter fraser
Member Avatar


Blondie girl
3 Aug 2014, 06:56 PM
I'm interested to see whether it's gonna heat up in Brissie...
Brisbane is certainly surging but I wouldn't call it hot yet. Maybe in 2015 it will be.

For those who know SEQ well, I spent the day in Redcliffe and surrounding suburbs today. I can't believe how much the peninsula has surged ahead in pubic amenities and general ambience. Had a great day there and I was very impressed. Prices are still low and I'm beginning to consider a purchase there myself.



Edited by peter fraser, 3 Aug 2014, 07:26 PM.
Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
nelson
Unregistered

Blondie girl
3 Aug 2014, 06:56 PM
I'm interested to see whether it's gonna heat up in Brissie...
It was reported in June that Brisbane house prices dropped 1.9% in may, which were the biggest falls since 2008.
"REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Chris
Default APF Avatar


Drgonzo
3 Aug 2014, 06:03 PM
Even bull poster boy Paul Bloxham is turning bearish based on his comments in the fin review over the weekend- you would have to be a die had bull not to accept reality now.

http://www.afr.com/p/business/property/property_spruikers_signal_overheating_2TXvv9qcoLHkMHTVTuBxeI
Property spruikers are no indication of an overheated market, they are indicative of a lucrative revenue stream. They can be paracites that look to feed on those who see success but don't understand it.

On the other hand I went to the Dallas Brooke's hall in melbourne in 2003 as a guest of a friend who wanted me to join him in a seminar on property. We turned up with approx 3,500 other people and were sold on the idea of investing. Not conventional investing but something left of centre. The biggest draw card they were spruiking was bank guarantees, fuck the deposit get the bank to cough up a guarantee (I can't recall it's terminology) where they say your loan is good but you don't give the property owner a cent.

The crowds lapped it up, it was like a feeding frenzy and my mate did the 2 week $10k course in Syd that showed him what they were alluding to was the tip of the iceberg. He was a lot older than me and had the cash (well a credit card with adequate balance) so he did it.

He is now very wealthy, he has made a lot of money and will live life, and retirement very comfortably.

He did this by listening to spruikers, unlikely but true.
Edited by Chris, 3 Aug 2014, 09:45 PM.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Jimbo
Member Avatar


Chris
3 Aug 2014, 09:45 PM
He is now very wealthy, he has made a lot of money and will live life, and retirement very comfortably.

He did this by listening to spruikers, unlikely but true.
Speculative investment pays for those who get in very early. They make their money by selling to the people who come in late.
The longer a speculative investment scheme has been running, the more likely it is that you will be late to the party.
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be :?: rising.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Drgonzo
Member Avatar


Chris
3 Aug 2014, 09:45 PM
Property spruikers are no indication of an overheated market, they are indicative of a lucrative revenue stream. They can be paracites that look to feed on those who see success but don't understand it.

On the other hand I went to the Dallas Brooke's hall in melbourne in 2003 as a guest of a friend who wanted me to join him in a seminar on property. We turned up with approx 3,500 other people and were sold on the idea of investing. Not conventional investing but something left of centre. The biggest draw card they were spruiking was bank guarantees, fuck the deposit get the bank to cough up a guarantee (I can't recall it's terminology) where they say your loan is good but you don't give the property owner a cent.

The crowds lapped it up, it was like a feeding frenzy and my mate did the 2 week $10k course in Syd that showed him what they were alluding to was the tip of the iceberg. He was a lot older than me and had the cash (well a credit card with adequate balance) so he did it.

He is now very wealthy, he has made a lot of money and will live life, and retirement very comfortably.

He did this by listening to spruikers, unlikely but true.
Bank guarantees? What's the big deal?
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
peter fraser
Member Avatar


Drgonzo
4 Aug 2014, 07:02 AM
Bank guarantees? What's the big deal?
Yes I was puzzled a little by that as well. What I assume they mean is a "Deposit Bond"

There are issuers of these bonds who will put up a 'deposit bond' as your deposit when you buy, but that bond has to be replaced at settlement with money that might come from the equity in another property. To get a bond you have to be able to show the issuer that you can and will get the finance together on time to settle, so their assistance is temporary. They charge a fee but it's not that costly and it might be cheaper than breaking a term deposit contract early so these bonds can be useful at times.

In a really hot market it's possible to buy using a deposit bond and arrange a long settlement. That could be an off the plan purchase. By the time settlement arrives the property has gained enough to refinance immediately and replace any money taken out of equity in another property, thus you have 100% finance albeit with a delay.

Jimbo mentioned earlier that this will work if you're early to the party but not if you're late. IMHO it's a high risk strategy that will end badly for most people. Anyone trying it would need experience and the back up of cash or solid equity in case it didn't go to plan.

Maybe I have misunderstood the scheme, does anyone else have any experience with these schemes?
Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Admin
Member Avatar
Administrator

Monthly Housing Market Update - Pete Wargent
Follow OzPropertyForum on Twitter | Like APF on Facebook | Circle APF on Google+
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
1 user reading this topic (1 Guest and 0 Anonymous)
ZetaBoards - Free Forum Hosting
Free Forums with no limits on posts or members.
Learn More · Sign-up Now
Go to Next Page
« Previous Topic · Australian Property Forum · Next Topic »
Reply



Australian Property Forum is an economics and finance forum dedicated to discussion of Australian and global real estate markets and macroeconomics, including house prices, housing affordability, and the likelihood of a property crash. Is there an Australian housing bubble? Will house prices crash, boom or stagnate? Is the Australian property market a pyramid scheme or Ponzi scheme? Can house prices really rise forever? These are the questions we address on Australian Property Forum, the premier real estate site for property bears, bulls, investors, and speculators. Members may also discuss matters related to finance, modern monetary theory (MMT), debt deflation, cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin Ethereum and Ripple, property investing, landlords, tenants, debt consolidation, reverse home equity loans, the housing shortage, negative gearing, capital gains tax, land tax and macro prudential regulation.

Forum Rules: The main forum may be used to discuss property, politics, economics and finance, precious metals, crypto currency, debt management, generational divides, climate change, sustainability, alternative energy, environmental topics, human rights or social justice issues, and other topics on a case by case basis. Topics unsuitable for the main forum may be discussed in the lounge. You agree you won't use this forum to post material that is illegal, private, defamatory, pornographic, excessively abusive or profane, threatening, or invasive of another forum member's privacy. Don't post NSFW content. Racist or ethnic slurs and homophobic comments aren't tolerated. Accusing forum members of serious crimes is not permitted. Accusations, attacks, abuse or threats, litigious or otherwise, directed against the forum or forum administrators aren't tolerated and will result in immediate suspension of your account for a number of days depending on the severity of the attack. No spamming or advertising in the main forum. Spamming includes repeating the same message over and over again within a short period of time. Don't post ALL CAPS thread titles. The Advertising and Promotion Subforum may be used to promote your Australian property related business or service. Active members of the forum who contribute regularly to main forum discussions may also include a link to their product or service in their signature block. Members are limited to one actively posting account each. A secondary account may be used solely for the purpose of maintaining a blog as long as that account no longer posts in threads. Any member who believes another member has violated these rules may report the offending post using the report button.

Australian Property Forum complies with ASIC Regulatory Guide 162 regarding Internet Discussion Sites. Australian Property Forum is not a provider of financial advice. Australian Property Forum does not in any way endorse the views and opinions of its members, nor does it vouch for for the accuracy or authenticity of their posts. It is not permitted for any Australian Property Forum member to post in the role of a licensed financial advisor or to post as the representative of a financial advisor. It is not permitted for Australian Property Forum members to ask for or offer specific buy, sell or hold recommendations on particular stocks, as a response to a request of this nature may be considered the provision of financial advice.

Views expressed on this forum are not representative of the forum owners. The forum owners are not liable or responsible for comments posted. Information posted does not constitute financial or legal advice. The forum owners accept no liability for information posted, nor for consequences of actions taken on the basis of that information. By visiting or using this forum, members and guests agree to be bound by the Zetaboards Terms of Use.

This site may contain copyright material (i.e. attributed snippets from online news reports), the use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. Such content is posted to advance understanding of environmental, political, human rights, economic, democratic, scientific, and social justice issues. This constitutes 'fair use' of such copyright material as provided for in section 107 of US Copyright Law. In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, the material on this site is distributed for research and educational purposes only. If you wish to use this material for purposes that go beyond 'fair use', you must obtain permission from the copyright owner. Such material is credited to the true owner or licensee. We will remove from the forum any such material upon the request of the owners of the copyright of said material, as we claim no credit for such material.

For more information go to Limitations on Exclusive Rights: Fair Use

Privacy Policy: Australian Property Forum uses third party advertising companies to serve ads when you visit our site. These third party advertising companies may collect and use information about your visits to Australian Property Forum as well as other web sites in order to provide advertisements about goods and services of interest to you. If you would like more information about this practice and to know your choices about not having this information used by these companies, click here: Google Advertising Privacy FAQ

Australian Property Forum is hosted by Zetaboards. Please refer also to the Zetaboards Privacy Policy