BTW, all those places in Japan land are built to a much higher standard aren't they, regarding fire, cyclone and earthquake requirements?
Just looking at the Japanese products around me, their fixtures and fittings would be higher standard too?
Just from what I know of them, I would expect most places to be double glazed and insulated.
Maybe im wrong?
stinkbug
24 Jul 2014, 11:26 AM
How did you derive this number?
I had someone recently tell me they thought a fair price for an inner north Canberra 2 BR unit to be $80,000. I asked how he arrived at this number but he got angry and wouldn't respond sensibly.
A mixture of our wages being to high, our build quality being too low, and all the middle men expecting too much from the little they do, ie real estate agents, advertising, conveyancing.
Have you seen the costs associated with doing a piss arse renovation these days?
No wonder idiots who have trouble doing up their own shoe laces feel compelled to diy and think their pathetic effort adds 100% + to their costs.
Kulganis you are cherry picking again. OK Tokyo may offer some cheap apartments in areas closer to the city than Sydney does. But is does not offer hardly if any affordable houses with backyards and those that are available are much smaller than Sydney's. Tokyo also has a really expensive top level apartment market. This is why it is consistently ranked (post crash) as one of the most expensive cities in the world.
Your credibility just went out the window.
You're moving goal posts.
First you said Japan was more expensive than Australia, then you said you were talking about top end Tokyo vs. top end Sydney. I used apartments because that is what the site you used to show prices, uses to calculate their prices, in cherry picked locations. now, you're trying the houses with backyards avenue.
Greater Tokyo has a population of ~35,000,000 people. That is more than the entire population of Australia, in an area about the same size as Sydney. I'm not in the slightest surprised that they find space at a premium, but they have a totally different culture to us, they don't have the expectations that we do.
And I can tell you now, there is not a single property, anywhere in Australia, that is anywhere within spitting distance to a capital city that you can get for less than $50k.
Quote:
The fact that I was demonstrating is that eejits who say the Sydney market is just like the peak of the Japanese market need to take a serious look at what they are claiming.
It's not a fact, I've shown you to be wrong. Sydney is much more expensive than Tokyo, unless you cherry pick your areas and only use the most expensive properties.
Quote:
Sydney is cheaper than post crash Tokyo full stop and they are trying to frighten young people with such ridiculously implausible scenarios.
Which is wrong, and you know it, and you're trying to reassure young people into believing that Tokyo is much more expensive than Sydney with a scenario that is just as ridiculously implausible.
Quote:
It annoys me because these unscrupulous crash spruikers have been misleading young people into making unwise decisions for their own financial future.
I'm not personally expecting a crash, but lets just say that there was a crash, I would say exactly as you have, but about the unscrupulous boom spruikers.
Quote:
The indisputable fact remains that Japan has significantly higher prices per sqm than Sydney.
It's very disputable, just because you wouldn't want to live in a place without a backyard, doesn't mean everyone has the same expectations.
"If man is to survive, he will have learned to take a delight in the essential differences between men and between cultures. He will learn that differences in ideas and attitudes are a delight, part of life's exciting variety, not something to fear." - Gene Roddenberry
"Balloon animals are a great way to teach children that the things they love dearly, may spontaneously explode" -- Lee Camp
Could you explain the mechanism by which rents will rise as this construction boom takes off?
The mechanism is the same one that Perth always seems to run into as it runs out of tradies etc and it needs to import them and they need to find accomodation. I don't think prices will go back to the heady days of the living away from home allowances in a hurry without another big CAPEX spend in WA. However, I think the current fall in prices will not last much longer as the residential construction on the books starts to really kick off. That is just MHO, as there is still an underlying shortage of homes in Perth. Maybe when all the new building and urban development is complete Perth will be able to become less vulnerable to these cycles.
Although I now have rental property, I am still relieved that the pressure is off rentals as it really hurt a lot of people when it was so hard to get anywhere to rent if you had a few kids or a pet. I experienced this when I first arrived in Perth a few years ago and I would not wish that worry and stress on anyone.
Ex BP Golly
24 Jul 2014, 11:25 AM
Interesting, given I believe the fair value of the ave Sydney 2 bed aapartment to be about $150,000.
But people, who have no idea, nor ability of making anything are allowed to think for themselves apparently
This price would be totally unsustainable as it would be impossible to build for anywhere near that price - supply would dry up completely and prices would return to where they are.
I learnt years ago that my perception of fair value has nothing to do with the cost of things, to understand the cost of property in Sydney it is necessary to recognise how many super rich people chose this place as their home, and how high the cost of construction is.
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993 The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
The mechanism is the same one that Perth always seems to run into as it runs out of tradies etc and it needs to import them and they need to find accomodation. I don't think prices will go back to the heady days of the living away from home allowances in a hurry without another big CAPEX spend in WA. However, I think the current fall in prices will not last much longer as the residential construction on the books starts to really kick off.
So the builders flooding Perth for the construction boom won't be able to build homes fast enough for the builders flooding Perth for the construction boom.
I'm not sure that's entirely a sustainable situation but thanks for clearing it up.
A mixture of our wages being to high, our build quality being too low, and all the middle men expecting too much from the little they do, ie real estate agents, advertising, conveyancing.
Have you seen the costs associated with doing a piss arse renovation these days?
No wonder idiots who have trouble doing up their own shoe laces feel compelled to diy and think their pathetic effort adds 100% + to their costs.
Thanks for that.
Renovations aren't necessarily that expensive, I've done quite a few with a variety of builders and trades assisting. They get very expensive when people want their dreams to come true, and are well priced if you are pragmatic about adding value.
So the builders flooding Perth for the construction boom won't be able to build homes fast enough for the builders flooding Perth for the construction boom.
That sounds like a new economic model if they can pull it off.
The trouble with the world is that the stupid are cocksure and the intelligent are full of doubt — Bertrand Russell
Renovations aren't necessarily that expensive, I've done quite a few with a variety of builders and trades assisting. They get very expensive when people want their dreams to come true, and are well priced if you are pragmatic about adding value.
Like I said, it my understanding of fair value.
Others might think twice as much is fair value (or more)
but when I look at the prices of building materials, and know the massive improvements in efficiencies and materials, logistics and the like, over the last few decades hasn't driven down prices, I know I'm being right royally ripped off.
Thats just looking at the building materials side.
Its almost like containerisation has had no impact when it comes to Australian houses.
Jesus, its now at the stage where the cheapest roofing material is chinese made solar panels!
WHAT WOULD EDDIE DO? MAAAATE! Share a cot with Milton?
That sounds like a new economic model if they can pull it off.
Its called a multiplier accelerator effect.
It doesn't end well.
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?
The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly. Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
First you said Japan was more expensive than Australia, then you said you were talking about top end Tokyo vs. top end Sydney. I used apartments because that is what the site you used to show prices, uses to calculate their prices, in cherry picked locations. now, you're trying the houses with backyards avenue.
Greater Tokyo has a population of ~35,000,000 people. That is more than the entire population of Australia, in an area about the same size as Sydney. I'm not in the slightest surprised that they find space at a premium, but they have a totally different culture to us, they don't have the expectations that we do.
And I can tell you now, there is not a single property, anywhere in Australia, that is anywhere within spitting distance to a capital city that you can get for less than $50k.
It's not a fact, I've shown you to be wrong. Sydney is much more expensive than Tokyo, unless you cherry pick your areas and only use the most expensive properties. Which is wrong, and you know it, and you're trying to reassure young people into believing that Tokyo is much more expensive than Sydney with a scenario that is just as ridiculously implausible. I'm not personally expecting a crash, but lets just say that there was a crash, I would say exactly as you have, but about the unscrupulous boom spruikers. It's very disputable, just because you wouldn't want to live in a place without a backyard, doesn't mean everyone has the same expectations.
Less than 50kms from Tokyo, about 70 minutes on the express train...
Less than AU$265,000. 300m to the beach. 1,100 sqm.
You have not provided one piece of data proving me wrong - ie that the cost per sqm in Tokyo is more expensive that that of Sydney. This was my claim and you have totally failed to disprove this, despite all your cherry picking and huffing and puffing about individual properties. My claim is that use of the aggregate data is more useful than use of individual property prices
Tokyo may have a huge population but it is a shrinking with aging property stocks and and an aging population which adds downwards price pressure.
Now here are several sources that back up my statement on comparative house sizes between Tokyo and Sydney, so I do believe it is you who has made the error here not me.
You cannot compare two property markets by picking out selected houses for sale.
Quote:
The average size of a detached private home in Sydney reached a decade high of 324sq m late last year - about a fifth larger than in 2001 - according to unpublished building approvals data from the Housing Industry Association.
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993 The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
Renovations aren't necessarily that expensive, I've done quite a few with a variety of builders and trades assisting. They get very expensive when people want their dreams to come true, and are well priced if you are pragmatic about adding value.
I dont think I have been anywhere where the average renovation job is as poor as in Sydney. The most common strategy appears to be to buy a 2 bedroom apartment in Sydney's East, do an awful job and then charge through the roof. This works in a rapidly rising market of course but the profit would often be better if left alone.
Its pathetic how a crappy shit house of a unit with no air-condition, single brick walls and carpeted floors can be considered "ultra modern". Most amateur renovators add a lick of paint, some new built-ins, an upgraded carpet and a new kitchen bench top. It sucks cause not only do you have to rip everything out and start from scratch but they actually expect you to pay premium for their poor work
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