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Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 shot down. 295 dead including 27 Australians.; Malaysia Airlines plane en route from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur shot down by surface-to-air missile
Topic Started: 18 Jul 2014, 08:23 AM (15,176 Views)
herbie
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Strindberg
18 Jul 2014, 01:31 PM
If it was shot down then it would be either a careless mistake (identification error) by the rebels or covert deliberate action by the Ukrainian gov. Only the Ukrainian government could get an advantage from it.
The Ukrainian gov is 'winning' - So why take the risk? (Jesus, if they actually got found out for doing something like that they'd be right royally loathed.)

A very, very, very bad cockup by the separatists is what Occam's Razor would suggest to me?
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Dr Watson
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herbie
18 Jul 2014, 01:50 PM
A very, very, very bad cockup by the separatists is what Occam's Razor would suggest to me?
The published transcripts seem to indicate identification error by some of Putin's proxies. Does this make it mass-murder or mass-manslaughter or something else ... ? Their moral culpability is probably reduced somewhat by the high-risk flight path chosen by the pilot. But all this geopolitical uncertainty is good news for the big oil producers. Russian oil production remains at high levels:
Posted Image
World peace — and a lower oil price — is not in Putin's financial interests.
Edited by Dr Watson, 18 Jul 2014, 01:57 PM.
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zaph
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herbie
18 Jul 2014, 01:31 PM
Wonder if airlines will start avoiding Syrian and Iraqi airspace? - Plus a few other places.
Call me a worrywart, but it just mightn't be a bad idea?
Probably - but the average punter flying would have no idea where they fly over, and I doubt that information is easily available.

Different airlines will do things differently according to their manuals and any desires to cut costs.

I used to fly very regularly BNE > Port Moresby (and beyond). The QANTAS and Air Agony flights took off only minutes apart - on a good day you could see the other aircraft in the distance out the window. On one occasion the air traffic controllers in PM were on strike, the Air Agony flight landed but the QANTAS flight I was on would not land at an airport without traffic controllers and returned to Brisbane. Not sure which airline made the best decision.
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Mike
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newjez
18 Jul 2014, 01:00 PM
With your knowledge of military hardware Mike, do you think it likely this was shot down at 33000 feet, or could there be some other explanation? It will be interesting to see what evidence comes in. I know they fly planes over other dodgy areas. Could have wider implications.
We can only guess really.

However look at recent events. A transport plane and SU-25 fighter both shot down in close proximity to the airliner over previous days. It is clear the rebels have got advanced hardware and a stunning ability to use it with little training. I find this hard to believe.

Either Russian advisors are using the air defence equipment or Russians military operate them.

US radar confirms a missile was fired from the ground and so do heat sensors, the location is still being determined.

This combined with comments from rebels on social media claiming to shoot down a plan, later deleted.

It all points to Russian rebels or the Russians themselves.

Radar tracks will determine where the missile was launched form, don't be surprised if it was launched from Russian territory as military forces have been clashing along the border for days now.

I think it is clearly a mistake, but this is what happens in a messy situation like this.

If Putin is not careful he could have a full scale war fought inside Russia and the Ukraine, hardly the result he wanted.

What worries me about Russia is what does a dog do when it is cornered, Putin is cornered now in a lose-lose situation and he knows it. The only real way out is a large military operation against the Ukraine, where that ends who knows. It certainly won't end well for Russia, question is how much damage is done to the wider world in the process.

Follow the sanction course through, if they cripple Russia which they will do in time, does Russia just sit back and take this or use it's only ace card. Military power. However once this card is played it relies on the US not getting involved or NATO. Would NATO sit by and watch a full scale invasions of the Ukraine. If NATO supports the Ukraine it could lead to a major war between NATO and Russia. Who blinks first.

Let's assume NATO just watches and imposes a complete economic sanctions and embargo on Russia, highly likely in this scenario. Russia conquers Ukraine or the parts it wants. Yet the economic situation for Russian worsens, it's economy collapses 25% of GDP over the next 12 months. What is Putins next move, watch Russia disintegrate or push further. My opinion is he would need to move on the Baltic States to force Europe to cave in and remove sanctions and threaten nuclear attack. The US would not be bullied in this situation, it would defend NATO and a full scale war would erupt. Who knows where it ends.

As I said in no situation does Russia win, it can only limit the damage. Putin should have been happy with the Crimea, left Ukraine for a year then tried again. There is to much heat at present.

This is rapidly spiralling out of control.
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vdmruss
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Strindberg
18 Jul 2014, 01:31 PM
If it was shot down then it would be either a careless mistake (identification error) by the rebels or covert deliberate action by the Ukrainian gov. Only the Ukrainian government could get an advantage from it.
Check out the flight paths of the shot down plane and the previous.

http://flightaware.com/live/flight/MAS17/history/20140717/1000Z/EHAM/WMKK

It's as if this flight was deliberately routed over the war zone.

Also:

http://www.eturbonews.com/48079/ukraine-air-traffic-controller-suggests-kiev-military-shot-down-

We need to wait for all the facts to be gathered.
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herbie
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vdmruss
18 Jul 2014, 02:11 PM
Check out the flight paths of the shot down plane and the previous.

http://flightaware.com/live/flight/MAS17/history/20140717/1000Z/EHAM/WMKK

It's as if this flight was deliberately routed over the war zone.

Also:

http://www.eturbonews.com/48079/ukraine-air-traffic-controller-suggests-kiev-military-shot-down-

We need to wait for all the facts to be gathered.
It's starting to sound like GoT.
A Professional Demographer to an amateur demographer: "negative natural increase will never outweigh the positive net migration"
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Strindberg
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herbie
18 Jul 2014, 01:50 PM
The Ukrainian gov is 'winning' - So why take the risk? (Jesus, if they actually got found out for doing something like that they'd be right royally loathed.)

A very, very, very bad cockup by the separatists is what Occam's Razor would suggest to me?
I agree. There are still plenty of people saying that 9/11 was the work of the US gov. But not me.
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herbie
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Mike
18 Jul 2014, 02:03 PM
... Putin should have been happy with the Crimea ...
Seemed to me he was. (And I never for a moment thought he'd let Sevastopol go - So no surprises there.)

But I saw no real evidence at all that Russia was actively supporting the separatists in other parts of the East? (Bit more a case of Russia had effectively dumped them pretty much 'right in it' even?)
A Professional Demographer to an amateur demographer: "negative natural increase will never outweigh the positive net migration"
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vdmruss
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Possibilities:

a) Pro-Russian rebels shot it down by accident with the missile system they may have obtained.

b) Ukraine military shot it down by accident.

c) Ukraine military shot it down on purpose - to escalate the conflict and draw Russia in.

What the hell was the airplane doing over that area in the first place?

There is no incentive for Russians to shoot down civilian aircraft.

Putin isn't Dr Evil and doesn't drown kittens, even though the media here really likes to present this image. :mad:
Edited by vdmruss, 18 Jul 2014, 02:34 PM.
Let me assure you that this isn't one of those shady pyramid schemes that you've been hearing about. No sir, our model is the Trapezoid which guarantees each investor an 800% return within hours.
Those who can, do. Those who can't, teach.
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Wisebear
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It's a very sad event and my thoughts are with the famalies of those that died.

Unless one side deliberately, and knowingly targeted the civilian aircraft there should be no diplomatic crisis or any escalation.
However, knowing how the USA and Russia do business they will be trying to use this cock-up to score points and gain an advantage.
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