Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 shot down. 295 dead including 27 Australians.; Malaysia Airlines plane en route from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur shot down by surface-to-air missile
Tweet Topic Started: 18 Jul 2014, 08:23 AM (15,169 Views)
Russia's Putin seems like is about to spill the beans, if it comes to it. And for the record this is not the first time the fascists in Kiev are held liable for shooting down passenger air liners:
I don't know why they bother. War zones kill a multitude more people than that a downed civil flight. They treat something like this which is relatively unimportant as important because it is a plane full of Western affiliated bourgeois. Many are killed in War Zones, if you're a tourist and don't like being killed in War Zones, don't go there! The attitude that some lives are more sacred than others is the cornerstone of the next World War!
Russia's Putin seems like is about to spill the beans, if it comes to it. And for the record this is not the first time the fascists in Kiev are held liable for shooting down passenger air liners:
The western media really did strike some new lows with its coverage of this incident and our own political leader also went beyond the pale with both of their opinions on what happened.
I don't know if Russia had a part in it. And I doubt that you know either. By having a BUK thingy - Pinched from defeated Ukrainian forces quite possibly. (It was reported that they got one in late June.) And being able to put together a crew from separatists who'd been trained to operate them either in the Ukraine military or the Russian military. (Some Russians living in Ukraine ... Kind of think of it as being a bit like there could be some Kiwis living in Oz maybe?????) And if on the off chance the separatists had not managed to pinch a separate radar unit (which I'd NOT heard of) then fucking up as to target ID could be very, very likely - Possibly? Although, are you advising me that without the separate unit, the BUK is rendered totally unusable/in-operational??? "Back" - Why do you just naturally believe 'BACK into Russia'?
Were they BUKs? Whose were they? Where were they moving? Who told you where they were being moved to? (Or where they'd come from.)
PS: Was there one of those separate radar units you mention amongst them? If not, why not? (Lots of questions in fact - And fuck all good answers from anyone much really - Yet - Including yourself - IMO.)
Well firstly, lets me clear with what we are dealing with, if in fact it is the Buk Missile system. At that height it would be a Buk or similar system which operate in a similar fashion.
You need a command vehicle, you need a target acquisition radar vehicle and then the launcher itself. 3 separate vehicles. For just the launcher alone you need a trained 4 man crew. Now that 3 separate Buk launches have been spotted moving back into Russia it is likely this was the deployment of at least a company sized force. A battalion normally has 6 launches, could me more out there but 3 have been spotted if the information is correct which is videoed of Buk systems heading back to Russia from the Ukraine.
We cannot deal with absolutes or 100%, you never can in these kind of situations. However I find it hard to believe any intelligent person would think a advanced air defence system that can shoot down ballistic missiles could be so quickly operated by the separatists. Lets assume they did steal the launches from the Ukrainian Military, they just happen to have all the right trained people handy in that area to operate a command vehicle, radar vehicle, plus the launch vehicles, that they are all in working order. You are probably talking about at least 12 highly trained people to operate just one launcher let alone 3. Plus you would also have a resupply vehicle to replenish the missiles.
You are kidding yourself. These were Russian systems, with Russian crews that just slaughtered 300 people including 37 Australians. The separatists are not operating these weapons, the Russians are hence why then went back over the border. You don't give people you cannot trust weapons which may be used to shoot down your own planes some day, not right on your own border. I guess the T-72 Tanks the separatists had along with Grad Missile launches also seen moving over the border from Russia in recent weeks are just tourists. Bunch of rebels had instant training in them as well I guess.
Stop kidding yourself. Putin thought he could get away with having Russian forces in the Ukraine. It was Russian forces which infiltrated Eastern Ukraine and the Crimea and started all this trouble, it was never local people at all. Putin caused a situation so he could then move in and claim the Crimea, an annexation which hardly any nation accepts.
The end game here does not end well for Russia. The best thing Putin can do is back down, blame the separatists, hand over a few criminals who did it (expendables), agree to a full international investigation and calm the situation in Eastern Ukraine. Only then can he avoid crippling sanctions which will cripple Russia for years to come. Either that or mobilise the army and prepare to invade Europe to force them to remove crippling sanctions coming his way over the next few weeks.
miw
20 Jul 2014, 08:29 PM
I'm sure Russia could replace the weapons expertise, but the end game of what was happening before Crimea was the eventual moving of Ukraine under the NATO umbrella.
Shooting down the airliner would seem to have made that more likely than ever, so it counts as an absolutely monumental fuckup. In the meantime, I'd be watching what happens in Moldova.
I understand why Putin is doing what he is doing. From Putin's eyes he has a limited time to make Russia stronger, perhaps a small window to rebuild part of the old Soviet Union. He has a non-interventionist US president who is focused on the economy and rebuilding US economic might prior to dealing with other international issues and rightly so. However history does not stop while the Americans gather there strength.
Putin knows that in the coming few decades Russia primary threat to its long term vitality is China. Russia cannot hope to stop China in decades to come from taking most of Siberia or dominating the central Euroasian land mass. The only way to avoid this situation is to enlarge and strengthen Russia. To do this he first needs the Ukraine, having just the east does little to help him. The only reason he would take the east is if he has plans to bring the rest of the Ukraine with it. With the Ukraine will follow other lands, such as Moldova, Belorussia will certainly form a closer Union with Russia if not completely annexed at some point. The central republics are ripe for Russia to also take if needed.
Without the Ukraine all of Putins dreams of recreating a strong Russia as a Superpower disappear. So how far is he willing to go to get it. Putin would now expect crippling sector wide sanctions are being drawn up in Washington, even if Europe does not follow a tough US lead Europe banks will for fear of being cut off from the US market having much of the same effect anyway. Russias economy could be utterly devastated within 12 months if Obama decades to ramp up the sanctions. What would Russias response be? Cut off Gas to Europe. Yes this will be a problem but it has solutions, it will hurt Europe but then Europe would respond and match or even increase sanctions greater then the Americans and European sanctions would hurt Russia far more. The cutting of gas to Europe has been modelled and it would take 1.5% of GDP out of the EU while Russia would lose 10% of GDP in the first 12 months. Once Europe finds other sources of gas it minimises this damage while Russias damage will remain 10% or larger as you cannot build pipe networks over night to new markets.
China is already taking its slice out of Russia with the recent gas deal between Russia and China favouring China greatly as it got a much cheaper gas price due to Russias weakness in leverage. China is Russias last possible customer and has no other options. Russia is becoming Chinas slave for lack of a better word.
Putin has one strong card to play, his military power. While no match for the US on the battlefield let alone NATO it would be a large bloody war. Much like Hitler will Putin gamble the allies wont cause World War III by going to war if Putin invades Ukraine. Can we see Obama mobilising the US to deploy to eastern Europe much of the US military along with NATO and fighting a large scale war. Will the rest of Europe have the stomach for it.
I tell you what, if I was in Putins shoes right now I would be very tempted to unleash the Russian military on the Ukraine, take it all prior to anyone being able to do anything about it. Then say to the world what are you going to do. Go to war with a nation that has thousands of nuclear weapons.
Of course then Russia would be isolated for decades economically and politicly much like the Cold War. Russia would in the end lose regardless. Who knows maybe Obama has a spine after all and US tanks will roll up to the Kremlin in a few years. Hopefully Putin takes other options.
China is already taking its slice out of Russia with the recent gas deal between Russia and China favouring China greatly as it got a much cheaper gas price due to Russias weakness in leverage. China is Russias last possible customer and has no other options. Russia is becoming Chinas slave for lack of a better word.
Really? He got more for it than Europe is paying. I think it was a well-designed pricepoint, actually, because it is low enough to persuade China to build a pipeline distribution system to take it and more, but high enough to be more profitable than Europe as a market. Remember that the cost to liquefy and regasify NG is several dollars per MMBTU, so the effective price is not much short of the current North Asian spot price, which will get cheaper anyhow.
I doubt very much China has any eyes on Russian Siberia. It's full of friggin' Russians for a start, and the last thing it wants for at least the next 50 years is an enemy on that side.
I do agree with you that Russia is desperate not to have Ukraine move out of its sphere of influence though. I doubt they need to annexe Byelorussia. For all intents and purposes it is part of Russia already.
The truth will set you free. But first, it will piss you off. --Gloria Steinem AREPS™
I don't know why they bother. War zones kill a multitude more people than that a downed civil flight. They treat something like this which is relatively unimportant as important because it is a plane full of Western affiliated bourgeois. Many are killed in War Zones, if you're a tourist and don't like being killed in War Zones, don't go there! The attitude that some lives are more sacred than others is the cornerstone of the next World War!
Have you heard that clown Alan Jones demanding to know what Tony Abbott is going to do to secure the crime scene?
Why politicians don't tell him to piss off and take his medication is beyond me.
Maybe the PM could make Jones Australias special envoy, and pack him off into the warzone.
WHAT WOULD EDDIE DO? MAAAATE! Share a cot with Milton?
Many are killed in War Zones, if you're a tourist and don't like being killed in War Zones, don't go there!
It sounds so incredibly simple when put like that. If only you had informed the passengers of this before they had boarded the flight. They needed you to tell them that the plane would be 'touring' a war zone ... I don't think they had any knowledge they would be flying over one. Your advice is good — but a few days late.
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