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When will the 'inevitable' Australian property crash begin? When does 'The Bubble' actually pop?
Topic Started: 14 Jul 2014, 11:31 AM (12,139 Views)
Shadow
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Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

Ex BP Golly
16 Jul 2014, 09:57 AM
Do you have a graph for that
Yes, first page of this thread, up at the top.

Quote:
 
So when do you reckon it will pop?
Sometime after a bubble develops.

Based on recent pops in other countries, that would be after a protracted period of growth in price/income ratios, plus a construction boom that leads to a large glut of unsold homes.
Edited by Shadow, 16 Jul 2014, 10:07 AM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Ex BP Golly
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Shadow
16 Jul 2014, 10:07 AM
Based on recent pops in other countries, that would be after a protracted period of growth in price/income ratios, plus a construction boom that leads to a large glut of unsold homes.


Sometime next year then!
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Edited by Ex BP Golly, 16 Jul 2014, 10:43 AM.
WHAT WOULD EDDIE DO? MAAAATE!
Share a cot with Milton?
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Wisebear
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Shadow
14 Jul 2014, 11:31 AM
When will the 'inevitable' Australian property crash begin? When does 'The Bubble' actually pop?
It‘s very difficult to time these things with any accuracy and property markets are generally much slower moving than other markets, I therefore voted after 2018.

The Australian property market has been in a bubble for over a decade now fuelled by easy cheap credit so we will have to wait until we get a clear indication of a change in direction before any crash is likely. All indications are that the already dire economic conditions in the US & Europe will continue to deteriorate so even lower rates are to be expected. This will, of course, fuel speculative demand for high risk assets such as property.

This additional fuel being added to the Australian property bubble will ensure a spectacular collapse when it finally arrives.
Edited by Wisebear, 16 Jul 2014, 11:07 AM.
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stinkbug
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Wisebear
16 Jul 2014, 10:58 AM

The Australian property market has been in a bubble for over a decade now ...
Why do you say this is a bubble? Is it because you are comparing prices to the late 90's when property was very cheap and undervalued? Are you expecting property to return to an undervalued state?
---------------------------------------------------------------

While it's true that those who win never quit, and those who quit never win, those who never win and never quit are idiots.

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Shadow
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Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

Wisebear
16 Jul 2014, 10:58 AM
voted after 2018

Australian property market has been in a bubble for over a decade
So you believe that sometime after 2018, Australian house prices will fall significantly below their 2003 level?
Edited by Shadow, 16 Jul 2014, 11:08 AM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Ex BP Golly
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stinkbug
16 Jul 2014, 11:04 AM
Why do you say this is a bubble? Is it because you are comparing prices to the late 90's when property was very cheap and undervalued? Are you expecting property to return to an undervalued state?
Talk about value judgement :lol

You say they were very cheap and undervalued, but in fact they were then at all time highs well outside long term averages

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WHAT WOULD EDDIE DO? MAAAATE!
Share a cot with Milton?
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Wisebear
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stinkbug
16 Jul 2014, 11:04 AM
Why do you say this is a bubble? Is it because you are comparing prices to the late 90's when property was very cheap and undervalued? Are you expecting property to return to an undervalued state?
Australian property is in a bubble for many reasons: Easy credit, lose lending standards, price increases higher than wage growth over the last few decades, government protection from natural corrections, a poor understanding of risk etc.

All asset prices fluctuate between over-valued and under-valued, so yes property will one day become cheap again.
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Ex BP Golly
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WHAT WOULD EDDIE DO? MAAAATE!
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stinkbug
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Ex BP Golly
16 Jul 2014, 11:09 AM
Talk about value judgement :lol

You say they were very cheap and undervalued, but in fact they were then at all time highs well outside long term averages

Posted Image
It's an opinion all right. How about you consider the variation in income and wealth of families, though, before comparing today (or the 90s) to 1940?
---------------------------------------------------------------

While it's true that those who win never quit, and those who quit never win, those who never win and never quit are idiots.

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Wisebear
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Shadow
16 Jul 2014, 11:07 AM
So you believe that sometime after 2018, Australian house prices will fall significantly below their 2003 level?
In real terms yes.
In real terms I see no reason why they couldn't fall to 1995 prices or lower.

Comparing any prices over time in nominal terms is, of course, just silly.
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