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When will the 'inevitable' Australian property crash begin? When does 'The Bubble' actually pop?
Topic Started: 14 Jul 2014, 11:31 AM (12,141 Views)
Shadow
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Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

MMM
15 Jul 2014, 09:08 PM
Things dont happen overnight shadow, and its hard to put an exact time frame on these things.
But you did put exact timeframes on it. You said in 2012 that Sydney was crashing. You actually said it was already happening at that time. And you said gold was going to $2000 in 2012 and $5000 in 2014. The things you put timeframes on failed miserably. So now you tell us about all these fancy predictions you supposedly made on some other forum that we can't see, so we just have to take your word for it that you got those ones right, when we know that all the predictions you did put in writing here were a disaster. You live in a fantasy world Ted. House prices in Sydney and Melbourne are booming right now, and while those markets will cool over the next couple of years, the rest of Australia will just take their place and start booming. It's all part of the cycle, but just like you did in 2012, you are again panicking and assuming the 'Big Crash' is here.
Edited by Shadow, 15 Jul 2014, 09:37 PM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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MMM
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Shadow
15 Jul 2014, 09:36 PM
But you did put exact timeframes on it. You said in 2012 that Sydney was crashing. You actually said it was already happening at that time. And you said gold was going to $2000 in 2012 and $5000 in 2014. The things you put timeframes on failed miserably. So now you tell us about all these fancy predictions you supposedly made on some other forum that we can't see, so we just have to take your word for it that you got those ones right, when we know that all the predictions you did put in writing here were a disaster. You live in a fantasy world Ted. House prices in Sydney and Melbourne are booming right now, and while those markets will cool over the next couple of years, the rest of Australia will just take their place and start booming. It's all part of the cycle, but just like you did in 2012, you are again panicking and assuming the 'Big Crash' is here.
Like I said, its hard to put a time frame on, just like we saw overseas.

Anything that I have said that has not happened merely has not happened yet. You have seen everything unfolding just like I said, record low Ingerest rates when you had no clue, record business and jobs losses, all clearly explained on here years prior.

You did not have the guts to addrrss everything else I posted earlirr, just like always.

There are some here that were on my thread many years ago, some may have the balls to admit it.

You dont believe me , not the zlightest worry in the world here.

As for living in fantasyland and claiming time frames for things, well some can see for themselves.

http://somersoft.com/forums/showthread.php?t=38278&page=13

http://somersoft.com/forums/showthread.php?t=44440&page=5
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herbie
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I've heard some interesting ones over the years.

One that really rather concerned me was when I went to see a little 20 something yo about my super in maybe 2006 and she reckoned the financial markets were way too sophisticated these days to ever see a replay of the Great Depression - Maybe? Maybe not?

And another was when I spoke to a pretty savvy dude a bit after the GFC kicked in and he told me not to worry because even if the US was a bit wobbly, the EU was a more major economy anyway. Hmmm ...

Me - I dunno. But I'm still happy to ask questions - Whilst hedging my bets ... :)
A Professional Demographer to an amateur demographer: "negative natural increase will never outweigh the positive net migration"
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Shadow
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Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

MMM
15 Jul 2014, 09:58 PM
Anything that I have said that has not happened merely has not happened yet
Predictions are pointless unless you put a timeframe on them, and then get the timing right, or reasonably close.

I predict it will rain sometime, and that sometime in the future there will also be an earthquake.

I predict the earth will end tomorrow. If it doesn't happen tomorrow then I just got the timing wrong.

Do you see how those predictions are pointless? Like your ones.

Quote:
 
Thanks - that's the thread where I predicted the current Sydney construction boom 4 years in advance, and got the timing correct to within 3 months of the actual start date.

I'm pretty happy with that one. :tu:
Edited by Shadow, 15 Jul 2014, 10:12 PM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Timo
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Shadow
15 Jul 2014, 10:09 PM
Predictions are pointless unless you put a timeframe on them, and then get the timing right, or reasonably close.

I predict it will rain sometime, and that sometime in the future there will also be an earthquake.

I predict the earth will end tomorrow. If it doesn't happen tomorrow then I just got the timing wrong.

Do you see how those predictions are pointless? Like your ones.


Thanks - that's the thread where I predicted the current Sydney construction boom 4 years in advance, and got the timing correct to within 3 months of the actual start date.

I'm pretty happy with that one. :tu:
Did you predict most people believe in a housing crash when you created your poll genius?
After a bubble has burst, no one denies that it existed. But before it does, the popular refrain is that though bubbles existed elsewhere in the world, “there’s no bubble here”. So housing bubbles are admitted to have existed in Japan, the USA, Spain and Ireland – because they’ve already burst.
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Shadow
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Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

Timo
15 Jul 2014, 11:12 PM
Did you predict most people believe in a housing crash when you created your poll genius?
The majority of members here are bears, so yes, obviously I expected the majority to expect a crash. It's been the same every time this poll has been run, since 2009.

You yourself have been on this forum talking about the imminent crash for three years now.

But prices are up another 17% nationally in that time, and up another 26% in Sydney.

What went wrong? Why did your predictions fail so badly?

Have you had a chance to think about that, or will you just keep repeating the same mantra regardless of how wrong you've been?
Edited by Shadow, 15 Jul 2014, 11:22 PM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Veritas
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Shadow
15 Jul 2014, 10:09 PM
Predictions are pointless unless you put a timeframe on them, and then get the timing right, or reasonably close.

I predict it will rain sometime, and that sometime in the future there will also be an earthquake.

I predict the earth will end tomorrow. If it doesn't happen tomorrow then I just got the timing wrong.

Do you see how those predictions are pointless? Like your ones.


Thanks - that's the thread where I predicted the current Sydney construction boom 4 years in advance, and got the timing correct to within 3 months of the actual start date.

I'm pretty happy with that one. :tu:
What a load of bollox.

Why do building codes in Earthquake prone zones seek to provide protection against these events?

Does it go like this Shadow.

City planner: You need to strengthen the foundations of that building due to the risk of earthquake.

Engineer: When will this earthquake be?

City planner: I dont know; could be tommorrow, could be thirty years.

Engineer: sorry no time frame therefore your prediction is redundant.

Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?

The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly.
Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
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Shadow
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Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

Veritas
15 Jul 2014, 11:42 PM
What a load of bollox.

Why do building codes in Earthquake prone zones seek to provide protection against these events?

Does it go like this Shadow.

City planner: You need to strengthen the foundations of that building due to the risk of earthquake.

Engineer: When will this earthquake be?

City planner: I dont know; could be tommorrow, could be thirty years.

Engineer: sorry no time frame therefore your prediction is redundant.
Earthquake related building codes are actually based on the predicted location, frequency and strength of earthquakes.

It's not enough to say there will be an earthquake somewhere sometime. A prediction like that would result in the same building codes being applied everywhere in the world, when in reality we would want different codes in Tokyo vs Sydney for example.

If a seismologist went to a Sydney town planner and told him the Sydney area would have a major earthquake sometime, do you think they would change the building codes? Probably not, even though it is pretty much inevitable that within the next few billion years a major earthquake will hit the Sydney region.

As you can see, a prediction is useless without timeframes.
Edited by Shadow, 16 Jul 2014, 12:03 AM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Timo
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Shadow
15 Jul 2014, 11:18 PM
The majority of members here are bears, so yes, obviously I expected the majority to expect a crash. It's been the same every time this poll has been run, since 2009.

You yourself have been on this forum talking about the imminent crash for three years now.

But prices are up another 17% nationally in that time, and up another 26% in Sydney.

What went wrong? Why did your predictions fail so badly?

Have you had a chance to think about that, or will you just keep repeating the same mantra regardless of how wrong you've been?
Haha well I predicted a pathetic response from you, and look I was right!

Scrambling?
After a bubble has burst, no one denies that it existed. But before it does, the popular refrain is that though bubbles existed elsewhere in the world, “there’s no bubble here”. So housing bubbles are admitted to have existed in Japan, the USA, Spain and Ireland – because they’ve already burst.
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Shadow
Member Avatar
Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

Timo
15 Jul 2014, 11:59 PM
Haha well I predicted a pathetic response from you, and look I was right!

Scrambling?
Scrambling?
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
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