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When will the 'inevitable' Australian property crash begin? When does 'The Bubble' actually pop?
Topic Started: 14 Jul 2014, 11:31 AM (12,143 Views)
Shadow
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Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

MMM
15 Jul 2014, 10:24 AM
I would say your poll is starting to scare the bullish sheep out there.
The poll gave the result I expected. As I mentioned in the OP, the majority always think the crash will happen next quarter or next year.

I ran the same poll a year ago with the same result... http://australianpropertyforum.com/topic/9951674/

And Strindberg posted the results of a 2009 poll with similar results.

I recall we also had a poll on Credit Crunch in 2010 and the results were the same.

It doesn't matter when the poll takes place, the bears always think the crash is imminent.

Yet 13 years later, we're still waiting for the elusive crash.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Sydneyite
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Shadow
15 Jul 2014, 01:35 PM
MMM
15 Jul 2014, 10:24 AM
I would say your poll is starting to scare the bullish sheep out there.
The poll gave the result I expected. As I mentioned in the OP, the majority always think the crash will happen next quarter or next year.

I ran the same poll a year ago with the same result... http://australianpropertyforum.com/topic/9951674/

And Strindberg posted the results of a 2009 poll with similar results.

I recall we also had a poll on Credit Crunch in 2010 and the results were the same.

It doesn't matter when the poll takes place, the bears always think the crash is imminent.

Yet 13 years later, we're still waiting for the elusive crash.
It's amusing that in neither this thread, nor last years, do the members who voted "next quarter" or "next year" ever post that they voted for those options, or explain thier rationale?
For Aussie property bears, "denial", is not just a long river in North Africa.....
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stinkbug
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MMM
15 Jul 2014, 09:45 AM
Reality kicking in yet stinky, won't be long now, if it hasn't already.

Few problems stinky.

You say, you are not over leveraged and think you are not. But most clowns thinks they are not over leveraged even with 5% down.

What almost 50%lvr, your poor, what about all the rest.


You are going through Tennant's quicker than dunnypaper. If you did not get a drop, you know as well as I do that you have been very lucky, this time round. No improvements happening with the economy stinky, just years of decline in the pipeline with no end in sight whatsoever.

And your comment about articles being designed to sell. One was from the Canberra times, these type of papeds are usually doing what you say, but by spriuking realestate. The problem is , things are so bad, thats its hard to hide the truth anymore, so instead of make themselves look like complete idiots are forced to tell the truth to some extent. On that note, we can then asse that things are being downplayed form the real falls going on. With prices down 5% in june quarter , and rents down what, 10-20% since krudd came in. Just get better right stinky.

So all the reports are just fantasy stinky? They are all wrong and you are right.

Ofcourse :wak:
In the last 2 years I've turned over 1 tenant in the entire portfolio, but don't let that get in the way of your made up fairytale.

I know it's difficult to accept that some investors do actually understand things like risk management, contingency, portfolio management and long term strategy, but people like us do exist.

The simple reality teddy is that there are plenty of investors who understand the cycle and use it to their advantage. I'm sitting on a positively geared portfolio, with plenty of spare cash and LVRs that would allow profit taking even if I had to sell (which I won't). My rental income actually subsidised most of my PPOR loan!

Keep 'em coming teddy, you're an entertaining and amusing member of the forum. :D
---------------------------------------------------------------

While it's true that those who win never quit, and those who quit never win, those who never win and never quit are idiots.

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MMM
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stinkbug
15 Jul 2014, 01:48 PM
In the last 2 years I've turned over 1 tenant in the entire portfolio, but don't let that get in the way of your made up fairytale.

I know it's difficult to accept that some investors do actually understand things like risk management, contingency, portfolio management and long term strategy, but people like us do exist.

The simple reality teddy is that there are plenty of investors who understand the cycle and use it to their advantage. I'm sitting on a positively geared portfolio, with plenty of spare cash and LVRs that would allow profit taking even if I had to sell (which I won't). My rental income actually subsidised most of my PPOR loan!

Keep 'em coming teddy, you're an entertaining and amusing member of the forum. :D
I don't need to keep em coming stinky, the media will do that for me :bye:

Your caught up in yesteryear mate and don't seem to have the slightest clue at all of what is going on around you.

And you say I am amusing :)

Just a recap. Can property prices crashing. Canberra rents crashing as well.

All the while we are at record low interest rates, when property should be rising but the report earlier in the thread shows canberra prices down 5% over the june quarter. Is that the biggest quartelty drop in canberras history, all while at record low rates. Yes I think it is, and jobs there are crashing with plenty more to go too.

Just gets better by the day in canberra.

Keep talkin it up stinky, wont do any good whatsoever. :)
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PiratePete1911
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I didn't vote but I am expecting stagnation. Where I am looking north of the river in Perth I am watching the same properties popping up in my inbox week after week with revised asking prices on them.

6 Months ago it wasn't even worth showing up to a home open because they were all sold before you got there.
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Veritas
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PiratePete1911
15 Jul 2014, 04:38 PM
I didn't vote but I am expecting stagnation. Where I am looking north of the river in Perth I am watching the same properties popping up in my inbox week after week with revised asking prices on them.

6 Months ago it wasn't even worth showing up to a home open because they were all sold before you got there.
Revised down I take it?

Got any examples?
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?

The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly.
Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
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miw
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Vote for none, because there was no choice for "who knows?"
The truth will set you free. But first, it will piss you off.
--Gloria Steinem
AREPS™
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stinkbug
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MMM
15 Jul 2014, 03:27 PM
I don't need to keep em coming stinky, the media will do that for me :bye:

Your caught up in yesteryear mate and don't seem to have the slightest clue at all of what is going on around you.

And you say I am amusing :)

Just a recap. Can property prices crashing. Canberra rents crashing as well.

All the while we are at record low interest rates, when property should be rising but the report earlier in the thread shows canberra prices down 5% over the june quarter. Is that the biggest quartelty drop in canberras history, all while at record low rates. Yes I think it is, and jobs there are crashing with plenty more to go too.

Just gets better by the day in canberra.

Keep talkin it up stinky, wont do any good whatsoever. :)
In other words, you have no response. Just reiterate your earlier rant instead of responding to my points.

You seem to know nothing of risk management, nothing of long term planning, nothing of cashflow management. You don't understand the cyclic nature of the property market, nor the value of renovation or development. You clearly don't understand how investors use yield to support borrowing and how this changes over time due to inflation and market changes.

Why are you even here? You're so far out of your depth it's embarrassing.
---------------------------------------------------------------

While it's true that those who win never quit, and those who quit never win, those who never win and never quit are idiots.

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PiratePete1911
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Veritas
15 Jul 2014, 04:54 PM
Revised down I take it?

Got any examples?
This one was 499 last time it was sent to my inbox.

http://reiwa.com.au/Buy/Pages/More-info.aspx?SearchType=RESSALE&prop_no=1&listingid=10485131&listingno=3487057&puid=0&searchid=320297&source=alert

This one was 509.

http://reiwa.com.au/Buy/Pages/More-info.aspx?SearchType=RESSALE&prop_no=1&listingid=10488029&listingno=3489958&puid=0&searchid=320297&source=alert

They both came through to me again this morning.
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MMM
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Sydneyite
15 Jul 2014, 01:45 PM
It's amusing that in neither this thread, nor last years, do the members who voted "next quarter" or "next year" ever post that they voted for those options, or explain thier rationale?
Funny stuff coming from you

And you ask for rationale, is this some kind of joke. Collapsing buisinesses, collapsing jobs, collapsing economy, interest rates at lows not seen since the great depression. Used every singles measure known to pump house prices , yet most are down on 2010 highs and Sydney has barely kept up with inflation using allthese tricks and record lows rates and this is all they could achieve. Meanwhile jobs are dissapearing faster than ever.
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