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When will the 'inevitable' Australian property crash begin? When does 'The Bubble' actually pop?
Topic Started: 14 Jul 2014, 11:31 AM (12,134 Views)
Veritas
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Quote:
 
Sorry, I don't know what that means.


Yes, you do.

Quote:
 
What is the nature of this 'genie' and in what form of 'bottle' was it previously contained?


you know exactly what it is. I think you have described it as "it is what it is" before.
Edited by Veritas, 16 Jul 2014, 06:10 PM.
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?

The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly.
Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
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MMM
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Some interesting poll results shadow.

1 in 10 think the crash has already happened, now there's an amusing one.

1 in 10 think that think there will be no crash, nearly as amusing.

And 65% think it will happen by next year according to your poll.

Like I said earlier in the thread, you left out the actual answer for which nobody could respond. And that is that the crash has already begun.

We are living the empire of illusion shadow, just like the US from which we have mirrored our mindless ways, only to end in permanent economic decline .

This is the genie coming from the bottle.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K_KJqjJ5stE&feature=youtube_gdata_player
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Poontang
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Shadow
16 Jul 2014, 03:19 PM


Tipped by who... gloomers? Many economists are tipping the unemployment rate to fall.
JP Morgan was 1, the article that I posted the other day about unemployment ticking up stated "economists expect it to rise further"
There are some people who seem angry and continuously look for conflict.
Walk away, the battle they are fighting isn't with you, it's with themselves.

The first lesson of economics is scarcity: There is not enough of anything to satisfy all who want it.
The first lesson of politics is to disregard the first lesson of economics. ~ Thomas Sowell.

Who was the fool, who the wise man, who the beggar or the Emperor? Whether rich or poor, all are equal in death.
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Veritas
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Poontang
16 Jul 2014, 07:30 PM
JP Morgan was 1, the article that I posted the other day about unemployment ticking up stated "economists expect it to rise further"
JP Morgan are known Gloomsters.

Of course, having one of the least affordable housing markets in the world is not gloomy in the least.
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?

The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly.
Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
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herbie
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Veritas
16 Jul 2014, 08:00 PM
JP Morgan are known Gloomsters.

Of course, having one of the least affordable housing markets in the world is not gloomy in the least.
Better yet - One of the least affordable for the LONGEST surely HAS to be something to be rejoiced over No? ... :)
Edited by herbie, 16 Jul 2014, 08:08 PM.
A Professional Demographer to an amateur demographer: "negative natural increase will never outweigh the positive net migration"
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Poontang
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I voted the crash will never happen...


I have stated before that I believe areas of Melbourne are going to be hit quite hard in the near future 2016/2017is time frame but over all Melbounre probably won't drop that much <10% maybe. Some suburbs however could well suffer price falls in the region of 20% aroung that time too.


Bulls will be posting lovely charts to say Melbourne has not even dropped 10%, that's a mild, statistically normal cycle movement.

People living in those suburbs much harder hit will be thinking different thoughts I'd imagine.
There are some people who seem angry and continuously look for conflict.
Walk away, the battle they are fighting isn't with you, it's with themselves.

The first lesson of economics is scarcity: There is not enough of anything to satisfy all who want it.
The first lesson of politics is to disregard the first lesson of economics. ~ Thomas Sowell.

Who was the fool, who the wise man, who the beggar or the Emperor? Whether rich or poor, all are equal in death.
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stinkbug
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I think there will be drops in real terms, but these will take some time, and manifest mostly in small drops followed by stagnant and/or below CPI growth. At some point affordability will get to a point where markets take off again.

Looks like low interest rates are here for a while, once these rise we'll see some changes. Of course, when rates rise people will be earning more and spending more.

Bottom line, I'm predicting a very boring few years of muddling along much the way we are now, with no spectacular rises or falls.
---------------------------------------------------------------

While it's true that those who win never quit, and those who quit never win, those who never win and never quit are idiots.

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Shadow
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Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

Veritas
16 Jul 2014, 06:09 PM
Quote:
 
What is the nature of this 'genie' and in what form of 'bottle' was it previously contained?
you know exactly what it is. I think you have described it as "it is what it is" before.
You think I described your 'genie' as 'it is what it is'? Do you think I described your 'bottle' too? Do you have a link?

I think you're talking in riddles.
Edited by Shadow, 16 Jul 2014, 09:12 PM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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goldbug
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Don't worry shadow, you'll get your crash one day. Nothing goes up forever in a smooth curvr.
Shadow was hopelessly wrong about the Gold Bull Market.
What else is he wrong about?
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Poontang
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Poontang
16 Jul 2014, 03:08 PM
Unemployment is at a 10 year high and tipped to rise further.

Youth unemplyment is high and will be high for some time.. especially if the retiring age is continually raised.



Shadow
16 Jul 2014, 03:19 PM




Tipped by who... gloomers? Many economists are tipping the unemployment rate to fall.
Edited by Poontang, 8 Aug 2014, 11:13 PM.
There are some people who seem angry and continuously look for conflict.
Walk away, the battle they are fighting isn't with you, it's with themselves.

The first lesson of economics is scarcity: There is not enough of anything to satisfy all who want it.
The first lesson of politics is to disregard the first lesson of economics. ~ Thomas Sowell.

Who was the fool, who the wise man, who the beggar or the Emperor? Whether rich or poor, all are equal in death.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
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