'THE REAL ESTATE MARKET WILL CRASH. It always does. And the bigger the boom, the bigger the bust. Anyone who says real estate always goes up and it's the world's best investment does not know much about real estate.' -- Neil Jenman, October 25th 2001
The general consensus among bears is usually that the crash begins next quarter or next year.
But 13 years later, we're still waiting for 'The Bubble' to pop. So when does the big crash actually begin?
Could anyone who votes also add a post to say how big they think the crash will be?
Personally I expect Sydney and Melbourne to have their next regular cyclical correction around 2016, with nominal declines of about 10% followed by a few years of stagnation.
Newjerk? can you try harder than dig up another person's blog. My first promo was with Billabong and my name in English is modified with a T, am Perth born but also lived in Sydney to make my $$ It's Absolutely Fabulous if it includes brilliant locations, & high calibre tenants..what more does one want? Understand the power of the two "P"" or be financially challenged Even better when there is family who are property mad and one is born in some entitlements.....Understand that beautiful women are the exhibitionists we crave attention, whilst hot blooded men are the voyeurs ... A stunning woman can command and takes pleasure in being noticed. Seems not too many understand what it means to hold and own props and get threatened by those who do. Banks are considered to be law abiding and & rather boring places yeah not true . A bank balance sheet will show capital is dwarfed by their liabilities this means when a portions of loans is falling its problems for the bank.
I voted it's already happened. We had significant corrections of 10-20% down over the past few years in Tassie, SA, QLD (Brisbane and in particular the GC and Sunshine coast + the far north).
Sydney corrected via low real price growth between 2003 and 2012, including several nominal price dips which were all excellent buying opportunities if you had your eyes open. That's as good a correction as you well ever get in a place Sydney due to supply constraints, taxation framework, income levels + high numbers of high income earners and wealthy people + population growth pressures, and foreign buyer interest etc as well.
The mining driven areas are running to a different cycle, but may stay elevated for some time as the export $$$ continue to flow for decades. I'm no expert on these areas though so not certain about likely outcomes by any means?
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