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When will the 'inevitable' Australian property crash begin? When does 'The Bubble' actually pop?
Next Quarter 6 (16.2%)
Next Year 14 (37.8%)
2016 3 (8.1%)
2017 1 (2.7%)
2018 or later 4 (10.8%)
The crash already happened 4 (10.8%)
The crash will never happen 5 (13.5%)
Total Votes: 37
When will the 'inevitable' Australian property crash begin? When does 'The Bubble' actually pop?
Topic Started: 14 Jul 2014, 11:31 AM (12,133 Views)
Shadow
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Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

When will the 'inevitable' Australian property crash begin? When does 'The Bubble' actually pop?

I've been hearing about the imminent and inevitable crash since around 2007 when I started posting on forums like this one.

The first crash call was by Neil Jenman 13 years ago... http://www.jenman.com.au/news_alert.php?id=4

'THE REAL ESTATE MARKET WILL CRASH. It always does. And the bigger the boom, the bigger the bust. Anyone who says real estate always goes up and it's the world's best investment does not know much about real estate.' -- Neil Jenman, October 25th 2001

The general consensus among bears is usually that the crash begins next quarter or next year.

But 13 years later, we're still waiting for 'The Bubble' to pop. So when does the big crash actually begin?

Could anyone who votes also add a post to say how big they think the crash will be?

Personally I expect Sydney and Melbourne to have their next regular cyclical correction around 2016, with nominal declines of about 10% followed by a few years of stagnation.
Edited by Shadow, 14 Jul 2014, 11:32 AM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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zaph
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Shadow
14 Jul 2014, 11:31 AM
Could anyone who votes also add a post to say how big they think the crash will be?
105% + tip!
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Bardon
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2025, on the 19th December at about 4.45pm EST.

Crash size is a bit of a guess but it will be larger than the last one.
Edited by Bardon, 14 Jul 2014, 11:46 AM.
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Blondie girl
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At worst: stagnation.

Have set up my kids, all they need to do is initiate & continue the add ons not everything will be given for zilch.


After they sort themselves what to do career stuff.

Aim to travel between the coast & alpine magic that this world offers.

Specifically, Tuscany region & put on the snow shoes in Bettermalp.

Eventually kark it with warm gluhwein & a glass of schnapps in my hand.
Edited by Blondie girl, 14 Jul 2014, 01:32 PM.
Newjerk? can you try harder than dig up another person's blog. My first promo was with Billabong and my name in English is modified with a T, am Perth born but also lived in Sydney to make my $$
It's Absolutely Fabulous if it includes brilliant locations, & high calibre tenants..what more does one want? Understand the power of the two "P"" or be financially challenged
Even better when there is family who are property mad and one is born in some entitlements.....Understand that beautiful women are the exhibitionists we crave attention, whilst hot blooded men are the voyeurs ... A stunning woman can command and takes pleasure in being noticed. Seems not too many understand what it means to hold and own props and get threatened by those who do.
Banks are considered to be law abiding and & rather boring places yeah not true . A bank balance sheet will show capital is dwarfed by their liabilities this means when a portions of loans is falling its problems for the bank.
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stinkbug
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I can't see a crash happening at all. We don't have enough supply in the high demand areas (except for a few places that have too many luxury units).
---------------------------------------------------------------

While it's true that those who win never quit, and those who quit never win, those who never win and never quit are idiots.

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Sydneyite
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I voted it's already happened. We had significant corrections of 10-20% down over the past few years in Tassie, SA, QLD (Brisbane and in particular the GC and Sunshine coast + the far north).

Sydney corrected via low real price growth between 2003 and 2012, including several nominal price dips which were all excellent buying opportunities if you had your eyes open. That's as good a correction as you well ever get in a place Sydney due to supply constraints, taxation framework, income levels + high numbers of high income earners and wealthy people + population growth pressures, and foreign buyer interest etc as well.

The mining driven areas are running to a different cycle, but may stay elevated for some time as the export $$$ continue to flow for decades. I'm no expert on these areas though so not certain about likely outcomes by any means?
Edited by Sydneyite, 14 Jul 2014, 02:20 PM.
For Aussie property bears, "denial", is not just a long river in North Africa.....
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Maz
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I've been saying "next year" for a long time, but the irrational exuberance continues.
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Shadow
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Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

Shadow
14 Jul 2014, 11:31 AM
The general consensus among bears is usually that the crash begins next quarter or next year.
Next Quarter and Next Year taking an early lead as usual...
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Guest
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Shadow
14 Jul 2014, 03:44 PM
Next Quarter and Next Year taking an early lead as usual...
Nobody can say when exactly it will happen , only that it will happen.

We have one of the largest housing bubbles in the world.

They always pop eventually, its simply a matter of time.

Just like the US bubble, UK bubble and Euro housing bubble all went bang too. And our houses are much more expensive than theirs.

In the same way our mining boom went bang.



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Strindberg
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Here's the results of a similar poll I posted on the Ozzie section of GHPC (that was the Global House Price Crash forum) in 2009.
Posted Image
Housing costs to Income broadly unchanged since 1994 - re-ratified here
The People of Australia have the highest median wealth in the World
2002-2012 10 year house price growth the SLOWEST since 1952-1962
"There are two kinds of people in this world: ones that fiddle around wondering whether a thing's right or wrong and guys like us." (Hugo to Gagin in Ride the Pink Horse)
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