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An historical event about to take place in Australia; Rental prices have peaked in ALL capitals and will now decline for years
Topic Started: 13 Jul 2014, 06:59 PM (18,312 Views)
Foxy
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Zero is coming...

MMM
13 Jul 2014, 06:59 PM
I have said for many years that rental prices in Australia will hit a peak from which they will then decline for years as jobs will no longer be there to sustain them.

For those unaware , rental prices for houses in the most expensive areas of sydney, with the top end of these properties ,weather it be the eastern suburbs or northern beaches areas have been declining since 2008 when the gfc first rared its head.

Over this time , rental prices for lower to mid to higher end property has risen in a big way in many areas of Australia and for these areas of Sydney I mentioned above have propably risen the most.

But it would now appear that we have now reached this peak from which rental prices will not only no longer grow, but they will start falling. And they will start falling to levels that will be historic falls in rental prices for Australia.

In these areas of Sydney I mentioned above, rents have never really fallen before for lower to mid level property, ever. And if it has, it has been in a minuscule way, if any ,for all of history.

What has usually happened over the decades is this, prices have risen up a bit, rents have risen up a bit.But then they may stay a bit stagnant for a while , perhaps years, before rising again. But they never really fell, have just stagnated for a while before moving up.

What we are about to witness in all capitals, will be historic rental price declines. This will continue for years and has never happened before. So much for the bulls hoping for a repeat of history, its changing fast, real fast.

So we are now at a historical point in Australian history, from which rental prices can no longer grow. Not only can they no longer grow, but they cannot be sustained. And for this reason they will fall.

The dawning of reality has arrived. :bye:
I like your thinking and you could very well be right, all I would ask you to do if you could is calculate the "real" yield on residential.
Peter
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abc1984
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So what are everyone's predictions for the rest of the year for the market? I have an investment property that I am thinking of selling to free up some cash. Best time to offload it now?
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Will
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abc1984
11 Mar 2016, 10:54 AM
So what are everyone's predictions for the rest of the year for the market? I have an investment property that I am thinking of selling to free up some cash. Best time to offload it now?
If its in Sydney or Melbourne, now would be a satisfactory time to cash out.

But if its in Brisbane or Perth or Adelaide, I would keep it. These markets have been pretty lacklustre for the last few years so hence have a better chance of some upside.
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Rock That Fellas
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abc1984
11 Mar 2016, 10:54 AM
So what are everyone's predictions for the rest of the year for the market? I have an investment property that I am thinking of selling to free up some cash. Best time to offload it now?
Might already be late but better late than too late.
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skamy
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abc1984
11 Mar 2016, 10:54 AM
So what are everyone's predictions for the rest of the year for the market? I have an investment property that I am thinking of selling to free up some cash. Best time to offload it now?
I always believe in holding long term if you can.
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993
The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
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newjez
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skamy
11 Mar 2016, 04:08 PM
I always believe in holding long term if you can.
That's probably the best strategy if you are f***ing stupid like you.
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
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Khaderbhai
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Wealthy Suburbanite

MMM
 
we have now reached this peak from which rental prices will not only no longer grow, but they will start falling. And they will start falling to levels that will be historic falls in rental prices for Australia.

What we are about to witness in all capitals, will be historic rental price declines
Two years after MMM posted this guff, and what has happened...

Sydney, Adelaide and Hobart April rents at record highs: CoreLogic RP Data

According to SQM Research, Sydney rents are up 5% over the past year. Also up in Canberra (+8%), Melbourne, Adelaide, Hobart, and nationally.

http://www.sqmresearch.com.au/

What went wrong MMM, how did you manage to screw this one up?
Edited by Khaderbhai, 12 May 2016, 09:53 AM.
Banks can't repossess your home simply because the market value falls. Australia's Consumer Credit Code says consumers aren't liable for things ordinarily outside their control and can't be held to obligations that could only be met by selling their home. Click for details.

"The truth is that there are no good men, or bad men. It is the deeds that have goodness or badness in them. There are good deeds, and bad deeds. Men are just men."
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Maz
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Khaderbhai
12 May 2016, 09:52 AM
Two years after MMM posted this guff, and what has happened...

Sydney, Adelaide and Hobart April rents at record highs: CoreLogic RP Data

According to SQM Research, Sydney rents are up 5% over the past year. Also up in Canberra (+8%), Melbourne, Adelaide, Hobart, and nationally.

http://www.sqmresearch.com.au/

What went wrong MMM, how did you manage to screw this one up?
Rents have dropped in a handful of Sydney suburbs, but rising in most of them. I have family renting in Sydney and it's a tough market for tenants. The article below says rents were flat after subtracting inflation, which means a 2% nominal rise, which is a bit lower than what SQM are saying, but it still puts Sydney rents at record nominal highs unfortunately.
Quote:
 
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/realestate/news/sydneys-house-and-unit-rental-prices-are-falling/news-story/e0ac7551effd5c8675d0b483cd1afaaf

The citywide median rent did not grow over the past year, when factoring in ­inflation, and landlords in some suburbs are now ­advertising their homes at ­reduced rent to bait tenants.
The article lists about a dozen suburbs where rents went down, which I suppose means rents went up in the other 600 suburbs!
Edited by Maz, 12 May 2016, 10:34 AM.
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iznop
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Maz
12 May 2016, 10:30 AM
Rents have dropped in a handful of Sydney suburbs, but rising in most of them. I have family renting in Sydney and it's a tough market for tenants. The article below says rents were flat after subtracting inflation, which means a 2% nominal rise, which is a bit lower than what SQM are saying, but it still puts Sydney rents at record nominal highs unfortunately.
The article lists about a dozen suburbs where rents went down, which I suppose means rents went up in the other 600 suburbs!
same story here in melbourne , how they expect battlers & middle incomes to cope with 30% annual rent hike :(

http://www.domain.com.au/news/melbourne-suburbs-where-rents-have-risen-fastest-20160408-go1gq2/

Melbourne families are being hit with record high rents, with the biggest hikes in second-tier prestige suburbs offering well-regarded schools.

Suburb Rent Annual Growth
Eaglemont $665 30.4%
Ashburton $620 25.3%
East Melbourne $1,025 24.7%
Elsternwick $698 22.9%
Mont Albert $600 22.4%
Ivanhoe East $670 21.8%
Lower Plenty $420 20.0%
Blackburn North $480 20.0%
Eynesbury $395 19.7%
Bentleigh $595 19.0%
Edited by iznop, 12 May 2016, 10:46 AM.
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I would say rents are falling slowly in Adelaide. Compared to two years ago when we were looking it is a completely different market now - definitely a renters market. Our renewal was up last month and our landlord called and implied that he wanted to raise our rents up another $10/week and sign a contract for us to stay another two years. We replied "no and no" and his reply was "okay" :D not fighting it. but we agree to just a six month contract. If he had forced the rental increase we would just say "see ya!" :bye: Because there are plenty of rentals out there to choose from.
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