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Does Australia really have a bona fide housing shortage or not?
Topic Started: 7 Jul 2014, 11:54 PM (2,543 Views)
goldbug
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peter fraser
8 Jul 2014, 09:58 AM
there is no shortage of raw materials or labour to provide houses, but people (developers) who produce land and housing won't produce them when the market price is below their production costs. So when prices fall developers take a holiday until the prices rise again. Wouldn't you? No one wants to work for nothing.

The result of that is when the market crashes no new supply is added and the shortage then drives a boom when buyer pressure builds up.
Are you saying aussie property has crashed peter? I thought it was at at all time highs, so the bulls keep raving.
Frank Castle
8 Jul 2014, 09:14 AM
Quote:
 
goldbug 11 minutes ago

21/07/2013

This forum has quite a few property investors on it but I cannot recall a single one buying a property for rent since I joined. What does that tell you?

It tells me you are a senile old fool with a very short and selective memory.
Hey, did you take me off ignore you old dirtbag?
So who has been buying investment properties frank? Not you that's for sure. You talk and talk like the barbers cat but the only property you seem to be able to afford is on the flood plain at depot hill :lol

Go buy another there if you can scratch up the equity. O that's right, the value of all your properties collapsed after the last 2 floods. Never mind... better luck in your next life.
Edited by goldbug, 8 Jul 2014, 10:47 AM.
Shadow was hopelessly wrong about the Gold Bull Market.
What else is he wrong about?
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Ex BP Golly
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goldbug
8 Jul 2014, 09:02 AM
If there was a shortage the residential construction industry would have ramped up years ago to fill it. There is no shortage of land, no shortage of tradesman hungry for work, no shortage of bedrooms for people to sleep in as was stated above. The only shortage that now exists is a shortage of people to go into debt for 30 years to buy one. Or to buy another one for rent.

This forum has quite a few property investors on it but I cannot recall a single one buying a property for rent since I joined. What does that tell you?
+1.

Whenever there is a shortage in Oz, owner built homes skyrocket.

WHAT WOULD EDDIE DO? MAAAATE!
Share a cot with Milton?
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stinkbug
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Is there a shortage? Yes and no.

In some areas there are homes and units to spare. They sit empty until someone makes an offer or they get rented. In other places there is a desperate shortage, and people can't get housing for love nor money.

The question for the property investors is: are the properties I own in short supply? Why or why not?
---------------------------------------------------------------

While it's true that those who win never quit, and those who quit never win, those who never win and never quit are idiots.

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ThePauk
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http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Lookup/by%20Subject/1301.0~2012~Main%20Features~Housing%20Utilisation~128

248,000 lone occupants living in houses with 4 or more bedrooms....mmmmm...
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Count du Monet
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It's a relative statement.

In 1900 a typical Aus house was about 8 squares and housed about 6 people. Today a typical house is at least double that size and houses 2.3 people or so.

There will always be a shortage of what people want and desire.

Quote:
 
My thoughts are this. If, as some say, grannies and rich folk are hoarding "too much house" then rather than prove the non-existence of a shortage, doesn't this create a shortage of available homes for everyone else?


You mean because developers have successfully lobbied government to flood the country with new people the grannies must leave what they own?

Appears to me the developers escape with massive profits and leave the taxpayer to foot the bill for the expanded population?
The next trick of our glorious banks will be to charge us a fee for using net bank!!!
You are no longer customer, you are property!!!

Don't be SAUCY with me Bernaisse
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Dr Watson
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Count du Monet
8 Jul 2014, 12:09 PM
It's a relative statement.

In 1900 a typical Aus house was about 8 squares and housed about 6 people. Today a typical house is at least double that size and houses 2.3 people or so.

There will always be a shortage of what people want and desire.
Because it's human nature that we want the things we can't have. Welcome back Count. You're in sparkling form.
Edited by Dr Watson, 8 Jul 2014, 12:15 PM.
The trouble with the world is that the stupid are cocksure and the intelligent are full of doubt — Bertrand Russell
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Count du Monet
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Dr Watson
8 Jul 2014, 12:14 PM
Because it's human nature that we want the things we can't have. Welcome back Count. You're in sparkling form.
Been playing Anno 1404 a few months solid.

It's game about raising a population and supplying them trinkets while you plot world domination. This has no relationship to reality of course!
The next trick of our glorious banks will be to charge us a fee for using net bank!!!
You are no longer customer, you are property!!!

Don't be SAUCY with me Bernaisse
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PiratePete1911
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Count du Monet
8 Jul 2014, 12:30 PM
Been playing Anno 1404 a few months solid.

It's game about raising a population and supplying them trinkets while you plot world domination. This has no relationship to reality of course!
That game is so much fun Multiplayer, it really helps being able to trade your trinkets with friends rather than having to pay through the nose for them.
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Count du Monet
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PiratePete1911
8 Jul 2014, 01:13 PM
That game is so much fun Multiplayer, it really helps being able to trade your trinkets with friends rather than having to pay through the nose for them.
The game is a must for anybody that likes sandbox games like Civilization or Age of Empires. I find Anno the best and much better internal logic.
Quote:
 
there is no shortage of raw materials or labour to provide houses, but people (developers) who produce land and housing won't produce them when the market price is below their production costs. So when prices fall developers take a holiday until the prices rise again. Wouldn't you? No one wants to work for nothing.


There is a limit on the energy to move everything. The main form is oil, the world fuel oil supply is at the moment around 90 million bpd. It won't be 120 mbpd tomorrow because people suddenly demand it. Although it could rise to that in a couple of decades.

Today oil is the cash, and printing paper money won't change that. Australia's purchase on oil will decline with the AUD exchange rate.

The monetary standard can be measured in liters of petrol!
Edited by Count du Monet, 8 Jul 2014, 01:47 PM.
The next trick of our glorious banks will be to charge us a fee for using net bank!!!
You are no longer customer, you are property!!!

Don't be SAUCY with me Bernaisse
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Admin
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Quote:
 
Residential shortage to last at least two decades: Developer

Zoe Fielding | 25 August 2014

Australia can expect a shortage of residential property for the next two decades as developers face barriers to lifting supply, according to AV Jennings managing director Peter Summers.

Population growth and increasing demand for housing, coupled with years of under-building have lead to shortages of new residential property, but government land release policies made it difficult for developers to catch up and meet demand increases, Summers said.

“It’s something that I think Australia will be struggling with for 10 or 20 years,” he said in a teleconference discussing the company’s full year result last week.

Low interest rates, low inflation and improving sentiment were adding to demand from consumers.

“In residential, consumer confidence is as high as it has been for many years. There’s a willingness to transact and engagement is as high as we’ve seen,” Summers said.

He was not concerned about the prospect of interest rates rises, which are forecast by many economists for next year.

“The main driver in this market has been consumer confidence and that’s about job security,” he said.

Consumer anxiety was down even though unemployment had risen, he said.

Forward indicators such as investor and first home buyer demand had also improved. First home buyers accounted for 13.2% of new housing loans in June, up from 12.6% in May, Australian Bureau of Statistics figures show.

Housing affordability was still a concern for many buyers but this was moderated by limited price growth on the urban fringes of capital cities and government incentives, Summers said.

AV Jennings plans to focus on affordable housing by maximising land utilisation at its project sites.

The group, which concentrates on building low-rise homes and town houses, plans to move more into medium rise apartments, although Summers said it was not likely to start building highrise apartments.

AV Jennings announced a profit before tax of $27 million for the 2014 financial year, up from a $23.3 million loss the year before.

It had 1,415 contracts signed over the year to June 30, 2014, up from 819 at the same time in 2013. There were 1,254 settlements in the 2014 financial year, compared with 829 the year before.

The company forecast there would be between 1,500 to 1,700 lot settlements in the 2015 financial year as the number of sites under development had risen dramatically.

Work in progress at 30 June, 2014 was 77% higher than in 2013 and 298% higher than the level two years ago, the company reported.

Read more: http://www.propertyobserver.com.au/forward-planning/investment-strategy/property-news-and-insights/34832-residential-shortage-to-last-at-least-two-decades-developer.html
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