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Who listened to housing bears and had their property ownership dreams crushed?
Topic Started: 25 Jun 2014, 11:39 PM (7,867 Views)
jesusjones
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jesusjones
26 Jun 2014, 02:14 PM
I was a bear saying 'surely prices will come down soon'?
We saved $160k renting cheap..So we bought having realised its supply and demand
in the big cities with
More people coming into the country each year on top
Of the Chinese buyers and people accessing the super funds.
It's clear even though it may slow down/stagnate prices will still keep
Increasing. My wife wants to buy an investment 1 bedder, so that's the next plan - if
You ant beat them Join them!!
We got out of Sydney transferred to Brisbane
And bought for much cheaper and have a small
Mortgage, less stress. I think interest rates will have to go up
Massively for a 15-20% crash in Sydney. I just can't
See Sydney crashing, I sympathise with youngsters in Sydney
Not being able to afford a shit box, but it's the same in
London an other sought after main cities. The other thing is will
The RBA raise the rates? looking at the world wide economy ie. debt,
Austerity, job losses.. The rates could be low for a long time if Australia
Follows the same route as Europe. Be interesting to see what happens in next
2 years.
Edited by jesusjones, 26 Jun 2014, 02:54 PM.
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Investor888
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jesusjones
26 Jun 2014, 02:51 PM
I think interest rates will have to go up
Massively for a 15-20% crash in Sydney. I just can't
See Sydney crashing,
15-20% is not a crash. Over a period or 2-3yrs to 2017/2018 it's just a return to balance after the 20% spike since the start of 2013, as interests rates rise. My call is 15-20% nominal (or that equates to around 35% in real inflation adjusted terms), then flat, and onto the next boom phase in the early 2020's when the market again reached new highs and the latecomers again buy in ~2022-2024 at the peak of the boom.

Hey, I'm the bull here! But I'm also realistic and understand the cycles.
Edited by Investor888, 26 Jun 2014, 03:02 PM.
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jesusjones
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No worries..
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zaph
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Investor888
26 Jun 2014, 02:44 PM
Some dumb investors too. Most informed investors stopped looking in Sydney in around mid-2013 and started looking in the Central Coast. We did at the time, and all the agents were saying there was a LOT more activity and enquiries from Sydney.
While the investors who post regularly here and at sites like SS are smart investors, most investors are dumb investors. Most investors own one, and perhaps two IPs. They buy something close to home, something they could live in themselves, something 'safe' and comfortable.
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Shadow
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Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

Ex Sydney Bear
25 Jun 2014, 11:39 PM
I wish I never had of found this forum and others like it
This forum is pretty balanced and there are plenty of non-bears here who would have helped you understand how and why the bears were wrong. I'm guessing the forums that really did the damage here were APF's predecessors like GHPC and Credit Crunch? Those sites banned all the bulls and became a massive bear circle jerk. Anyone unfortunate enough to stumble in there after all the bulls had been banned could have been easily brainwashed by the unchecked bear spruik.
Edited by Shadow, 26 Jun 2014, 03:33 PM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Chris
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It's insulting that you think I listened to anyone and then made an ill informed decision not to purchase a PPOR .

It's embarrassing that I actually did my own research, drew my own conclusions and decided not to buy.
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stinkbug
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Shadow
26 Jun 2014, 03:33 PM
This forum is pretty balanced and there are plenty of non-bears here who would have helped you understand how and why the bears were wrong.
The strength of this forum is that both extremes, as well as opinions in between, get the same opportunity to contribute.
Chris
26 Jun 2014, 03:49 PM


It's embarrassing that I actually did my own research, drew my own conclusions and decided not to buy.
I don't think it's embarrassing. You thought about it and made a decision. That's how these things go. The question now is 'where to from here'.
Edited by stinkbug, 26 Jun 2014, 03:51 PM.
---------------------------------------------------------------

While it's true that those who win never quit, and those who quit never win, those who never win and never quit are idiots.

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Investor888
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zaph
26 Jun 2014, 03:26 PM
While the investors who post regularly here and at sites like SS are smart investors, most investors are dumb investors. Most investors own one, and perhaps two IPs. They buy something close to home, something they could live in themselves, something 'safe' and comfortable.
There is nothing wrong with buying an investment property close to home if it will eventually become a primary residence. Or something to pass onto the kids when they move out of home.

But to buy an investment property close to home because it's close for the sake of it is stupid. It's like investing in CBA share because there is a CBA branch just down the road. You wouldn't do it, but there are plenty of dumb investors who feel comfortable with being able to drive by their property occasionally, so they buy in or around their suburb.

And exactly, something 'safe' and comfortable. Not an early retirement. I'd prefer to retire at 45, so diversify investment ro other property markets as well.
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newjez
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Dr Watson
26 Jun 2014, 11:01 AM
My tips for saving money — sell your car. Use public transport instead. For the odd tricky destination, engage a taxi driver or hire a car. That's infrequent, and you'll still be well ahead. Stop travelling overseas — that's an indulgence for the truly well-off. Don't buy takeaway coffees, just get a spice grinder, grind your own beans and brew them in a plunger. Avoid cafes and restaurants. Try to cook one-pot dishes at home where you get plenty of freezer-friendly portions. You don't need to eat out to enjoy the pleasures of food if you gain some skill in the kitchen. Watch cooking videos and you can get better than many chefs. For your wine consumption, buy cleanskins — you can get a nice drop sometimes for as little as $5. Grow your own herbs, very handy for when you only need a tablespoon or two of something.
Good sound advice. I can't believe the money people spend on coffee. You might want to look at how much you spend on mobile phoes - you could pay the lease on a new car (or service part of a home loan) for the same money some familes pay on their phones.
Edited by newjez, 26 Jun 2014, 04:28 PM.
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
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Chris
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stinkbug
26 Jun 2014, 03:50 PM
The strength of this forum is that both extremes, as well as opinions in between, get the same opportunity to contribute.

I don't think it's embarrassing. You thought about it and made a decision. That's how these things go. The question now is 'where to from here'.
Where to from here stinkbug? No grandiose plan unfortunately, I will keep saving until I get a deposit I feel is adequate enough to bring a mortgage into semi affordable parameters, not cheap but not on the cusp of poverty each month either. The fact remains I can't afford to buy now, it is not lost on me though that if prices keep rising at this rate I will forever be playing catch up and will never buy.

Rightly or wrongly I will never be one to jump in and hope to hell the cards land in my favour, no matter how dire things may 'appear'.
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