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The Gold Bubble... Just how badly have the silly goldbugs failed?
Topic Started: 21 Jun 2014, 11:46 AM (27,215 Views)
Jimbo
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Sydneyite
18 Mar 2015, 04:52 PM
Rubbish! Of course you can leverage into the physical gold market. Just borrow money (maybe against your house if you have one?) to buy your gold bullion instead of using existing cash held - not rocket science.
That is an asset swop. You are using existing equity to borrow against.

You can't go to the bank and say "lend me 100k so I can buy some Gold please".
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be :?: rising.
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Trollie
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Jimbo
18 Mar 2015, 05:02 PM
That is an asset swop. You are using existing equity to borrow against.

You can't go to the bank and say "lend me 100k so I can buy some Gold please".
Yes you can fuck knuckle. You can get a personal loan for anything you like.

Do you lack confidence in gold's growth potential that the interest rate scares you away?!
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Dr Kinetoscope
18 Mar 2015, 12:19 PM
AUD gold price in 2003 - $550
AUD gold price today - $1507

That's a 174% increase for one ounce of gold.

12 years on and it's gone forwards dramatically in nominal terms and real terms - A very, very good addition to an investment portfolio over the long term.
Up nearly 300%, and the gold bubble is yet to start.
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Jimbo
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Trollie
18 Mar 2015, 05:19 PM
Yes you can fuck knuckle. You can get a personal loan for anything you like.
You could also get a cash advance on your CC.

Quote:
 
Do you lack confidence in gold's growth potential that the interest rate scares you away?!
Why would I borrow when I don't need to?
Edited by Jimbo, 18 Mar 2015, 05:32 PM.
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be :?: rising.
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Sydneyite
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Jimbo
18 Mar 2015, 05:02 PM
That is an asset swop. You are using existing equity to borrow against.

You can't go to the bank and say "lend me 100k so I can buy some Gold please".
It's not an asset swap (other than a swap of $ for physical gold in any case!). You are confusing the issue of the *collateral* supplied (or required) for a loan with the fact that a loan is a loan regardless!

Eg, if I borrow $500k and add it to my cash to buy $1M worth of shares using a banks margin loan facility, am I any more leveraged than if I buy them using my cash + $500k borrowed / drawn from my mortgage LOC account???

The answer is clearly "no". The only difference is the collateral for the loan - in the first instance collateral is the shares, in the second it's my house, plus I'd pay a higher interest rate on the share margin loan vs the house LOC (due to higher risk from the banks perspective of losing from volatility in the collateral value).
For Aussie property bears, "denial", is not just a long river in North Africa.....
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The Whole Truth
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Sydneyite
18 Mar 2015, 04:52 PM
Rubbish! Of course you can leverage into the physical gold market. Just borrow money (maybe against your house if you have one?) to buy your gold bullion instead of using existing cash held - not rocket science.
That's not leverage you clown. Leverage is when you put down a small amount of cash to control a large amount of asset.
You property speculators haven't a clue?
"Panics do not destroy capital; they merely reveal the extent to which it has been previously destroyed by its betrayal into hopelessly unproductive works." John Stuart Mill
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Jimbo
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Sydneyite
18 Mar 2015, 05:32 PM
It's not an asset swap (other than a swap of $ for physical gold in any case!). You are confusing the issue of the *collateral* supplied (or required) for a loan with the fact that a loan is a loan regardless!

You are swapping a share of your house for Gold.

You are not borrowing money to be secured against the Gold you are buying.
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be :?: rising.
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skamy
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The Whole Truth
18 Mar 2015, 04:51 PM
Gold was $20/ounce in 1929 and as the stock markets collapsed it remained so.
Then in 1933 when the second leg down crushed the banks and economy in general, (big deflation) gold was revalued 50% higher!

It went to $35/oz, and you were allowed to own it, just not hoard it. Now we've had the big first leg down, and we all agree (unless we're asleep) that the global economy is a lot worse. In other words were on the cusp of the second leg down just like 1933.

Should you own gold as a part of your portfolio, as a hedge, just in case the obvious happens?
Not according to all the property speculators who are in debt to the tune of hundreds of thousands of dollars and can't afford gold anyway :lol :lol
Clearly you are still in gold waiting on a crash to follow a crash - some kind of mythical occurrence never seen before.

Come on Goldbug the crisis is over and the recovery is on. People are making money again in the real economy, they do not need gold as a wealth preserver and will soon much prefer their wealth working for them rather than buried in bank vaults and gardens. The gold bull run is over, the only question is how much lower will it go. One thing is for sure it will not rise significantly again until the next cyclic downturn approaches.

History repeats goldbug why deny it?
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993
The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
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Jimbo
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skamy
18 Mar 2015, 05:49 PM
Come on Goldbug the crisis is over and the recovery is on. People are making money again in the real economy, they do not need gold as a wealth preserver and will soon much prefer their wealth working for them rather than buried in bank vaults and gardens.
Have you seen the US macro recently?

Have you ever wondered why, 7 years after the GFC, we have every CB on the planet lowering rates? This shit is only just getting started.

You have no idea.
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be :?: rising.
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Shadow
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Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

Last Resort
18 Mar 2015, 03:52 PM
The gold Vs. housing argument is flawed. They are both hard assets regardless how you want to price them. I own both.
Quote:
 
I own both.
Sure you do hobo. Are you going to pull a Ted here and claim you hung on to some secret Adelaide property that you just forgot to mention before? :re:

Quote:
 
In terms of gold vs real estate gold has been winning in the past ten to 15 years (http://www.bullionbaron.com/2013/08/australian-houses-priced-in-gold-silver.html)
You mean it had a brief win from 2007 to 2012. Seven years out of the past four decades. Property won the rest of time, has won overall, and is winning right now.

Quote:
 
Houses are crashing priced in gold and silver
This isn't 2011 any more. You are living in the past. Since 2012 gold has been crashing against Australian property. It might be another four decades before gold has another brief property beating run.



Guest
18 Mar 2015, 05:28 PM
Dr Kinetoscope
 

AUD gold price in 2003 - $550
AUD gold price today - $1507
That's a 174% increase for one ounce of gold.
Up nearly 300%, and the gold bubble is yet to start.
LOL, in Ted's mind 174% growth just 'becomes' nearly 300% growth, just like that. Did you use 'The Secret'?

300% growth from $550 would be $2,200. Your maths is atrocious Ted.
Edited by Shadow, 18 Mar 2015, 06:32 PM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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