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The Gold Bubble... Just how badly have the silly goldbugs failed?
Topic Started: 21 Jun 2014, 11:46 AM (27,218 Views)
Curious Non-Economist
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Strindberg
22 Jun 2014, 05:42 PM
The Rupee has fallen about 10% against the US dollar since the beginning of last year.
You probably chose now and the beginning of last year for a reason, although it is difficult to say what that would be. Maybe the fantasy person in your mind mentioned those time periods.
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Lef-tee
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I thought you were in Gladstone. That isn't quite tropical Queensland.


Not quite but standing on the lookout on Auckland hill I can see Cape Capricorn in the distance so I figured that's close enough.
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Strindberg
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Curious Non-Economist
22 Jun 2014, 08:53 PM
You probably chose now and the beginning of last year for a reason, although it is difficult to say what that would be. Maybe the fantasy person in your mind mentioned those time periods.
YOU chose the period.
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.....sharp decline last year and early this year, the Indian Rupee began losing value against the dollar, and almost everything started increasing in price.

I responded with the data for the period you chose. So where did you get the following false claim from? Which 6 months? Did you make it up?
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Inflation averaged 7% per MONTH for more than 6 months.

Did you make up the following false claim too?
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Those who had gold were hedged against inflation and government incompetence.
Housing costs to Income broadly unchanged since 1994 - re-ratified here
The People of Australia have the highest median wealth in the World
2002-2012 10 year house price growth the SLOWEST since 1952-1962
"There are two kinds of people in this world: ones that fiddle around wondering whether a thing's right or wrong and guys like us." (Hugo to Gagin in Ride the Pink Horse)
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Shadow
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Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

Mustapha Mond
22 Jun 2014, 12:39 PM
I would feel like a complete failure if i owned a ton of gold.

Gee i may even buy a rusty old razor and start hacking at my wrists…………………………
Yep. Property and shares easily win over useless lumps of shiny metal...

Posted Image
Edited by Shadow, 24 Jun 2014, 01:13 PM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Admin
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Is Gold the Oldest Bubble “in Human History”?

By Cullen Roche · Thursday, December 11th, 2014

Here is some interesting commentary from Willem Buiter, CitiBank’s Chief Economist:

“The gold bubble, is, of course, pretty impressive … It has had a positive value for nigh-on 6,000 years. That must make it the longest-lasting bubble in human history

Even though I view gold as a pure bubble, that bubble may well be good for another 6,000 years … investing a vast amount of money in something whose value is based on nothing more than a set of self-confirming beliefs will make for an exciting ride.”


This will sound pretty familiar to anyone who’s read my book or read some of my commentary on gold. Gold, in my opinion, is a standard commodity with some intrinsic value as far as its industrial usage, however, it commands a price premium due to its usage as a currency. That is, there is a price premium in the price of gold due to people’s belief that it has value above and beyond its industrial value. I don’t know what the value of this premium might be, but here’s some perspective on how the price of gold often commands a premium over commodities:

Posted Image

So, is Buiter right that gold is in a historic bubble? I think we have to be careful with the term bubble because it implies that the current price is unsustainable. But I do agree with Buiter that the price of gold is based, to a large degree, on an irrational belief in its value as a currency. This doesn’t necessarily mean it’s in a “bubble”, but it does mean there is some potential risk in its value in the case that people were to believe, like I do, that the future of money is in electronic money and not physical forms of money.

Of course, it doesn’t matter much what I think. It only matters what the market thinks. And if the market disagrees with my opinion then my opinion is meaningless as it pertains to gold’s actual value. And as long as people continue to believe that this yellow metal has value as a currency then it will continue to have value as a currency. And given the amount of persistent fear over the sustainability of fiat money and governments I don’t see any reason why this belief will cease any time soon.

Read more: http://pragcap.com/is-gold-the-oldest-bubble-in-human-history
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Jimbo
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This doesn’t necessarily mean it’s in a “bubble”, but it does mean there is some potential risk in its value in the case that people were to believe, like I do, that the future of money is in electronic money and not physical forms of money.


What a very strange thing to say?
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be :?: rising.
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Kuyuss
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Jimbo
11 Dec 2014, 10:33 PM


What a very strange thing to say?
He shows that gold has commanded a higher price than a commodity index since 2008. That's going to go down like a lead balloon. He's also suggesting that people are generally irrational and there's nothing he can do about it. Pretty hard to disagree with that. His opinion after all.

I think this guy needs a crash course on cultural anthropology before he starts dishing out advice on finance or gold.
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Jimbo
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Kuyuss
11 Dec 2014, 11:19 PM
I think this guy needs a crash course on cultural anthropology before he starts dishing out advice on finance or gold.
He seems as thick as pigshit to me.

The statement "there is some potential risk in its value in the case that people were to believe, like I do, that the future of money is in electronic money and not physical forms of money" implies that Gold holders believe that we will one day be paying for things with Gold coins?

Of course the future of money is electronic. That future is already here. I rarely carry any cash, just a couple of cards. It isn't the medium of exchange that is in question. It is the issue and control of the medium of exchange that is in question.

Whether we have crumpled notes or smart phone wallets, the monetary reasons for holding Gold are still the same.
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be :?: rising.
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TheTruth
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Jimbo
11 Dec 2014, 11:49 PM
implies that Gold holders believe that we will one day be paying for things with Gold coins?
No Homer, you and other goldbugs have REPEATEDLY stated "gold is money".

Don't back peddle now, that's not the goldbug way.
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Kuyuss
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Jimbo
11 Dec 2014, 11:49 PM
He seems as thick as pigshit to me.

The statement "there is some potential risk in its value in the case that people were to believe, like I do, that the future of money is in electronic money and not physical forms of money" implies that Gold holders believe that we will one day be paying for things with Gold coins?

Of course the future of money is electronic. That future is already here. I rarely carry any cash, just a couple of cards. It isn't the medium of exchange that is in question. It is the issue and control of the medium of exchange that is in question.

Whether we have crumpled notes or smart phone wallets, the monetary reasons for holding Gold are still the same.
Yeah, we've been using electronic money since the 80s. WTF is he thinking and why does he think people will pay for shit in gold?
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