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The Gold Bubble... Just how badly have the silly goldbugs failed?
Topic Started: 21 Jun 2014, 11:46 AM (27,186 Views)
Bardon
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b_b
18 Dec 2015, 12:42 PM
At a 30% premium to Book valuation?
Patience is a virtue, the bargains are to be found in Woolworth's shelves, I am saying that REIT's charts are telling me that now is a good time to buy in for the long term.

See 10 year share price chart for the REIT's below which show that since the 09 lows the share price continue to find higher levels of support, this means the fundamentals are improving and it aint a falling knife.

http://hfgapps.hubb.com/asxtools/Charts.aspx?asxCode=CQR&compare=comp_index&indicies=0&pma1=0&pma2=0&volumeInd=9&vma=0&TimeFrame=M10

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/research/company.do#!/GPT

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/research/company.do#!/SGP

Edited by Bardon, 18 Dec 2015, 01:34 PM.
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b_b
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Bardon
18 Dec 2015, 01:28 PM
Patience is a virtue, the bargains are to be found in Woolworth's shelves, I am saying that REIT's charts are telling me that now is a good time to buy in for the long term.

See 10 year share price chart for the REIT's below which show that since the 09 lows the share price continue to find higher levels of support, this means the fundamentals are improving and it aint a falling knife.

http://hfgapps.hubb.com/asxtools/Charts.aspx?asxCode=CQR&compare=comp_index&indicies=0&pma1=0&pma2=0&volumeInd=9&vma=0&TimeFrame=M10

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/research/company.do#!/GPT

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/research/company.do#!/SGP
Thanks for the links.

I really don't care much for charts - prefer to focus on the fundamentals.

Sector is 1.3x Book value. And remember, unlike industrial companies, most REIT assets are independently valued on a regular basis, so Book is a real measure of value . Last time the sector was 1.3x book was 2007.

Also, lots of office supply coming is Sydney & Perth. Incentives already +30% in these markets - which means cash flow per share much lower than EPS.

Mid sector retail on the nose - VCX selling $750-$1000m of shitty malls because their future is bleak. The company admitted this will knock 5% from EPS. I'm not convinced they will find buyers at book value.

IOF under offer from DXS. This may be contested, but after there not much left in the M&A sphere (maybe MGR/SGP).

GPT is a basket case. IPO'ed in 1971 for $10 per share. Currently $4.75


(S – I) + (T - G) + (M - X) = 0
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Rastus2
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Rufus
18 Dec 2015, 09:29 AM
I love the metal Jimbo - I get to work with gold, silver, platinum, and stainless steel and I love yellow gold above the rest.

But it's a shit investment that is about to fall below $1000 USD per ounce. The Aussie goldbugs might save their ass because the AUD is also tumbling, but that's just a consolation prize.

Yup, gold in USD is not so good... in the same way Australian Property in USD is not so good..

Gold has certainly taken the worst beating of the two, but I would still rather have select American Property right now than Gold or Australian Property
Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
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Bardon
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b_b
18 Dec 2015, 01:54 PM


GPT is a basket case. IPO'ed in 1971 for $10 per share. Currently $4.75

One mans trash is another mans treasure. Their share price is now three times higher than it was in 09, buy high sell higher and all that.

As for fundamentals their profit in FY15 was up 75% on previous year, earnings per share grew 6%, total portfolio occupancy is 95% and sales are up to decade highs increased 5% last years and are even stronger at this point in time.

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b_b
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Bardon
18 Dec 2015, 02:35 PM
One mans trash is another mans treasure. Their share price is now three times higher than it was in 09, buy high sell higher and all that.

As for fundamentals their profit in FY15 was up 75% on previous year,
Driven by valuation gains - not cash-flow. And note, you are already paying more than valuation. Be careful not to count the numbers twice!
Quote:
 
earnings per share grew 6%,

By breaking hedging contracts and re-pricing debt at a lower rate. The benefits of the lower rate = NPV of break costs. No value add. Simply converting capital to income. Unlikely to continue as most of their debt is now at market.
Quote:
 
total portfolio occupancy is 95%

It has always been in the +90% - even during the 1991 recession. Numbers heavily skewed by Retail assets. Does not mean it is performing well.
Quote:
 
and sales are up to decade highs increased 5% last years and are even stronger at this point in time.

Sales? Company rent or retail turnover figures? According to the Sep quarterly, retail MAT up 3.7%.
http://gpt.com.au/getattachment/News-Media/Announcements-Media-Releases/september-quarter-operational-update-2015/ASX-Announcement-Sept-2015-Quarter-Operational-Update.pdf.aspx

I actually like GPT's retail. Much better than most except SCG. It's just that being a diversified, I think the mandate is too wide - leads to poor discipline, and therefore poor long term performance.

You obviously like the story. Good luck with it.
(S – I) + (T - G) + (M - X) = 0
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Strindberg
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Edited by Strindberg, 18 Dec 2015, 02:58 PM.
Housing costs to Income broadly unchanged since 1994 - re-ratified here
The People of Australia have the highest median wealth in the World
2002-2012 10 year house price growth the SLOWEST since 1952-1962
"There are two kinds of people in this world: ones that fiddle around wondering whether a thing's right or wrong and guys like us." (Hugo to Gagin in Ride the Pink Horse)
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Bardon
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b_b
18 Dec 2015, 02:48 PM

You obviously like the story. Good luck with it.
I like the if there is ever a good time to get into REIT's as along term share investment then now is the time to think about it as opposed to buying into a falling share like a gold miner. That's not to say that I am buying either, my days of day trading are over and my shares portfolio is under management, I tick boxes once a year and that is about it.
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Trollie
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Rastus2
18 Dec 2015, 02:30 PM

Yup, gold in USD is not so good... in the same way Australian Property in USD is not so good..

Gold has certainly taken the worst beating of the two, but I would still rather have select American Property right now than Gold or Australian Property
Good luck getting the Australian government to accept USD for stamp duty on a house.
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John Frum
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Jimbo
18 Dec 2015, 09:10 AM
So your preference is for people who try and make free money for doing nothing productive (property "investors") over those who simply try and protect the money they have already earned through sweat and toil (gold holders)?
I'm not sure what you're driving at here Jimbo - you know what I think of our housing market.

But why would I feel more sympathy for a gold investor than a property investor? Why do you think those that clip the ticket on a gold transaction are more virtuous than those that sell investmemt apartments?
"It were not best that we should all think alike; it is difference of opinion that makes horse races." - Mark Twain on why he avoids discussing house prices over at MacroBusiness.
"Buy land, they're not making any more of it." - Georgist Land Tax proponent Mark Twain laughing in his grave at humourless idiots like skamy that continually use this quip to justify housing bubbles.
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Rastus2
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Trollie
18 Dec 2015, 03:37 PM
Good luck getting the Australian government to accept USD for stamp duty on a house.

do you actually have a point or are you just trolling away ?
Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
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