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The Gold Bubble... Just how badly have the silly goldbugs failed?
Topic Started: 21 Jun 2014, 11:46 AM (27,187 Views)
Jimbo
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Terry
13 Dec 2015, 06:32 PM
Yes, but it's a stupid argument. If an asset class outperforms another, say property over gold, it doesn't diminish the value of the "inferior" asset.
The value of anything is relative to the value of the benchmark you decide to measure it against.

An ounce of Gold buys many more loaves of bread than it did 100 years ago. It buys less New York property than it did 500 years ago.

A million AUD buys 20% more top end Perth property than it did a year ago, 20% less Sydney property.

$5 AUD would have bought you a pint of beer in London last year, two thirds of a pint this year.



Terry
13 Dec 2015, 06:32 PM
Similarly, that is why the mining crash is largely absent from the BBQ dialogue. They don't really have any idea of the implications.
I was at a barbeque last night. One guy working as a safety officer for a major IO company has had his hours cut and his swing changed.

He will be out of pocket by around 50 hours a month.

This kicked off a bit of a convo between the rest of us and a tradie mate of mine (sparky) smuggly said "I'm glad I don't work in mining"

He is doing house wiring at the moment. Spent the last five years wiring modules for AUSCO till that died a death.

Now he is wiring new builds. Which is about to die a death.

The irony.

Edited by Jimbo, 13 Dec 2015, 06:58 PM.
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be :?: rising.
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herbie
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http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=ABX+Interactive#{"range":"max","allowChartStacking":true}

LOL
A Professional Demographer to an amateur demographer: "negative natural increase will never outweigh the positive net migration"
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John Frum
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herbie
18 Dec 2015, 05:26 AM
Links fucked Herbie, but I'm assuming your mirth is directed at another gold mining company going down the toilet.

I'm glad gold is crashing ATM too. Gold is the most unproductive and selfish investmemt play of all. At least with housing or stocks you're pretending to participate in fulfilling people's needs to improve their quality of life - with gold you're hoping to profit from fear, panic and the destruction of wealth.

It's an investment born out of spite and misanthropy, and I'm always filled with the most joyous schadenfreude every time I see the price plummet.
"It were not best that we should all think alike; it is difference of opinion that makes horse races." - Mark Twain on why he avoids discussing house prices over at MacroBusiness.
"Buy land, they're not making any more of it." - Georgist Land Tax proponent Mark Twain laughing in his grave at humourless idiots like skamy that continually use this quip to justify housing bubbles.
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Jimbo
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John Frum
18 Dec 2015, 09:01 AM
It's an investment born out of spite and misanthropy, and I'm always filled with the most joyous schadenfreude every time I see the price plummet.
So your preference is for people who try and make free money for doing nothing productive (property "investors") over those who simply try and protect the money they have already earned through sweat and toil (gold holders)?
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be :?: rising.
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Rufus
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Jimbo
18 Dec 2015, 09:10 AM
So your preference is for people who try and make free money for doing nothing productive (property "investors") over those who simply try and protect the money they have already earned through sweat and toil (gold holders)?
I love the metal Jimbo - I get to work with gold, silver, platinum, and stainless steel and I love yellow gold above the rest.

But it's a shit investment that is about to fall below $1000 USD per ounce. The Aussie goldbugs might save their ass because the AUD is also tumbling, but that's just a consolation prize.

Edited by Rufus, 18 Dec 2015, 09:30 AM.
Take risks - if you win you will become wealthy, if you lose you will become wise
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herbie
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John Frum
18 Dec 2015, 09:01 AM
Links fucked Herbie, but I'm assuming your mirth is directed at another gold mining company going down the toilet.
Yep. Barrick Gold Corporation (ABX) on the NYSE John. The world's biggest gold producer I think?

I don't follow their share price closely at all. But did notice about 9 months ago maybe that it was down from its all time peak of over USD 50 to about 11.50. And had the thought flick through my mind that if one was a punter it might be worth having a little flutter on.

The price is just under USD 7 now. After dropping a further 9% last night.

Damn. Glad I'm not a punter ... :D
A Professional Demographer to an amateur demographer: "negative natural increase will never outweigh the positive net migration"
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Bardon
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herbie
18 Dec 2015, 10:59 AM


I don't follow their share price closely at all. But did notice about 9 months ago maybe that it was down from its all time peak of over USD 50 to about 11.50. And had the thought flick through my mind that if one was a punter it might be worth having a little flutter on.
If you wanted to speculate then Australian REIT are looking like a very good punt.
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b_b
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Bardon
18 Dec 2015, 12:34 PM
If you wanted to speculate then Australian REIT are looking like a very good punt.
At a 30% premium to Book valuation?
(S – I) + (T - G) + (M - X) = 0
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Jason
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b_b
18 Dec 2015, 12:42 PM
At a 30% premium to Book valuation?
Maybe the seller could throw in a LNG company with every purchase.
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skamy
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Ex BP Golly
9 Dec 2015, 08:56 AM
Interesting investment strategy. Worst house in the worst street in the worst suburb.

I can see it now!
That is a lesson many would do well to learn in Australia. Just look at the worst suburbs that have risen in value way beyond the so called POSH suburbs.

As long as your worst suburb has good geography ie close to sea or river etc and/or good location - I think it is an excellent strategy to buy the worst house in the worst suburb. Far better than buying a crappy house in the best suburb.

Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993
The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
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