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The Gold Bubble... Just how badly have the silly goldbugs failed?
Topic Started: 21 Jun 2014, 11:46 AM (27,192 Views)
Shadow
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Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

Elastic
8 Dec 2015, 02:17 PM
I really don't have the energy to chase you about looking for your false or misleading statements but you conveniently still list point 6 in your signature.
That is a false statement.
No it's not. We currently have less adults per household, and more households per head of population, which means housing must be more affordable. If housing had become less affordable, then we wouldn't have been able to establish so many new households, with less adult wage earners in each one.
Edited by Shadow, 8 Dec 2015, 02:25 PM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Elastic
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Shadow
8 Dec 2015, 02:22 PM
No it's not.
It is simply a consequence of a much smaller proportion of children in the population.
I've been over this before, it's totally obvious to anyone butt you have too much hubris to admit you're wrong.
Besides the housing formation rate has decreased since about 2007 according to a graph recently posted, which would make the statement wrong on several counts.

Is it possible for housing formation rates to increase while houses are becoming less affordable.
Yes, so your statement is wrong.

You should learn what an = sign means.
Only a rat can win a rat race.

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Shadow
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Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

Elastic
8 Dec 2015, 02:30 PM
It is simply a consequence of a much smaller proportion of children in the population.
The number of children is irrelevant. The number of households has also increased as a proportion of the number of adults, not just as a proportion of the total population. The data shows the number of adults per dwelling has fallen. So there are less wage earners per household, and there are more households per head of population. That wouldn't be the likely outcome if affordability had deteriorated.
Edited by Shadow, 8 Dec 2015, 02:52 PM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Elastic
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Shadow
8 Dec 2015, 02:49 PM
The number of children is irrelevant. The number of households has also increased as a proportion of the number of adults, not just as a proportion of the total population. The data shows the number of adults per dwelling has fallen. So there are less wage earners per household, and there are more households per head of population. That wouldn't be the likely outcome if affordability had deteriorated.
Which is a consequence of adults living longer giving rise to more single old people.

People living longer (and women outliving men) resulting in more old single people = houses becoming more affordable.

Sounds almost as stupid as

People having less children = houses becoming more affordable.
Only a rat can win a rat race.

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Trollie
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Rastus2
8 Dec 2015, 12:58 PM

What you actually said was :

"You have only said it makes up a small portion of your wealth. You are slippery that way. "


Really ?

So you called me slippery for not giving details of my assets, but you are keen to avoid doing it also
I never asked for any details. I made a statement, not a question.

You are just trying to avoid the question because you've painted yourself into a corner like usual.
Rastus2
8 Dec 2015, 12:58 PM


So that's what, 1.2K per year...

Well your property must be a shitty dump in a pretty shitty area ...

Mine costs 2.5K in rates alone, 1.5k in insurance, and about 1k in maintenance (not including any reno's or extensions we are doing which is about 20k this year).
Gardens alone on my 1 acre cost us between $500 to 1,000 per year to maintain, but we do like gardening.


In about 50 years, much of the property would have to have been worked on.. in another 50 years, even more would have to have been worked on.
You sound like a complete novice investor.

Who gives a fuck if it's in a shit area, all I care about is the money it pays me. All mine are low cost and cash flow positive at this point.
Edited by Trollie, 8 Dec 2015, 03:30 PM.
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Rastus2
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Shadow
8 Dec 2015, 01:19 PM



Quote:
 
If you rented you'd still be responsible for the garden, so you can remove that cost.


Perhaps, to an extent... however my rental gardens were always needing work, especially between tenants... There is a limit to what tenants will/should do in the garden.

Also, I don't know about you, but when I drive past houses, it's often easy to see the PPOR vs Rentals with the extent of garden work put in.

If you believe that a PPOR owner does not spend any money on the garden each year, you are incorrect... if you don't spend any money on the garden as an IP, then you must have amazing tenants.
Quote:
 

If you rented you would not have the option to enjoy an extension or renovation, so you can remove that cost too.


So you are saying that owning a house means you don't need to worry about extensions or renovations... did you tell property owners that fact as they seem to be doing it regardless... Often to try and keep that rental yield up... 2 bedroom becomes 3, outdoor entertaining area to attract the higher rent, etc etc.. it's not a cost that they are able to remove once they decide to do it. How many PPOR's do you know that will not spend money on reno's or extensions... ever ?

None I would guess...


I would put the realistic cost of having a property (house and land) at more like 8k per year taking into account that people do spend, even if they don't have to.


So I disagree with your 5k final amount... I think it's more... but lets assume it is just that for now..

Quote:
 

So you're left with $5K per annum in actual holding costs. That's a lot less than it would cost to rent an equivalent property.


hmmm... so your saying that 5k is less than renting a property... that is not what we were discussing however... go back and read again what I said.

My point was that the costs of holding property offset the gains of rental yield... I believe it stand corrected... trollie claimed $100 per month storage costs (seems a little steep, but ok)...

That makes the offset which you claim does not exist about $3,800 per year. :D

My numbers put it at more like $5,000 per year offset.
Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
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Shadow
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Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

Elastic
8 Dec 2015, 03:00 PM
Which is a consequence of adults living longer giving rise to more single old people.
If more single, old people are able to afford to live in their own home, rather than having to move into nursing homes or living with their children etc., then this suggests housing has become more affordable.

Old single people wouldn't be increasingly living in their own homes if they couldn't afford to do it.

Overall, there are fewer adults per dwelling, therefore housing is more affordable than it was in the past.

If housing was less affordable, then we would see the opposite occurring - i.e. more people per dwelling, smaller dwellings, fewer empty bedrooms, generally more cramped living conditions. That's how it used to be in the past. But today, the improvement in affordability has allowed us to spread out into more homes, larger homes, and less densely occupied homes.
Edited by Shadow, 8 Dec 2015, 04:09 PM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Rastus2
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Trollie
8 Dec 2015, 03:27 PM




Quote:
 

I never asked for any details. I made a statement, not a question.


You made a statement that I was somehow slippery for not disclosing details... which makes you slippery by your own measure... actually slimy IMHO for setting a benchmark you will not meet yourself.
Quote:
 

You are just trying to avoid the question because you've painted yourself into a corner like usual.


What, exactly, is the question I am trying to avoid ? I am yet to hear a coherent one from you...

You claim you did not ask me a question... now you claim I am avoiding a question you did not ask.. :D


Quote:
 
You sound like a complete novice investor.


Do I ? well you would know.
Quote:
 

Who gives a fuck if it's in a shit area, all I care about is the money it pays me. All mine are low cost and cash flow positive at this point.


Are you a slum lord, perhaps ?
Edited by Rastus2, 8 Dec 2015, 04:05 PM.
Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
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Shadow
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Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

Rastus2
8 Dec 2015, 03:59 PM
If you believe that a PPOR owner does not spend any money on the garden each year, you are incorrect
No, if you believe tenants don't spend any money on the garden, you are incorrect.

Quote:
 
So you are saying that owning a house means you don't need to worry about extensions or renovations
Nobody needs to 'worry' about extensions/renovations. They're a choice. If people want to do them, fine. If not, also fine.

Quote:
 
so your saying that 5k is less than renting a property... that is not what we were discussing
Yes it is.
Edited by Shadow, 8 Dec 2015, 04:08 PM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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skamy
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Trollie
8 Dec 2015, 03:27 PM
I never asked for any details. I made a statement, not a question.

You are just trying to avoid the question because you've painted yourself into a corner like usual.

You sound like a complete novice investor.

Who gives a fuck if it's in a shit area, all I care about is the money it pays me. All mine are low cost and cash flow positive at this point.
This is really the difference between making a good investment and a careless one. We have a new build and it has had zero maintenance and it gets a great depro and good rent.
We also buy in up and coming suburbs not already established suburbs.

I see many people buy shit homes in good suburbs with the mistaken belief that it will make money ie buy the worst house in the best area rubbish. It never makes as much as buying a great property in an up and coming suburb.

My daughters rental has had two or three minor maintenance issues eg leaking tap and new oven over two years.

The bears are really daft if they think maintenance costs are any problem at all except if you buy a lemon and do not do due diligence.

Also if the garden is a mess they will be required to pay from the bond to get it back to the way it used to be. The owner does not pay.

Edited by skamy, 8 Dec 2015, 04:30 PM.
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993
The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
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