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The Gold Bubble... Just how badly have the silly goldbugs failed?
Topic Started: 21 Jun 2014, 11:46 AM (27,206 Views)
Blondie girl
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FiatBug
20 Mar 2015, 03:16 AM

Just for you Blondie and for the silly Goldbugs and for the ever so clever Housebugs who also bought in 1999.
(NB:The ABS indices I have only go back to March 2002 so for
the period June 1999 to March 2002 I spliced in data from Residex)

Posted Image



Houses priced in gold were crashing up until 2012 after which interest rate reductions
and the blow-off in the gold price caused a sharp reversal in Australia and USA (but also in UK, Canada, and NZ).
For simplicity the attached chart just shows Australia and USA.
Right now the 'median' priced house in USA will cost 100 oz go gold but in Australia it requires around 400oz





Posted Image
Correction - that's 200oz in USA
Waaaaaaahhhhhhhhhhhhaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa LMAO. Blah blah.

Oh the cheek in falsely quoting words I haven't actually posted...
I suppose if you're looking for a paper option but backed by physical gold there's the Perth Mint Program.



Someone said to me one thing worth thinking.
"you need to have some political diversification . The main risk you have is your OWN govt. you have to diversify your assets out of the control of your govt. This is even more important than picking the right investment today."

Another thing, with Gold I think when too many people advise to get into it..it's usually a sign that it's too late to get into it.
So, one stores physical gold as a long term protection of my investments not to make short term profits ...

Well it's sounds like the same principle for prop investing ..it's about investing in the long term isn't it? :bl:

My Bro was telling me that there were some people that were buying gold in Holland & hiding it in the car bumpers, then swapping number plates on an identical car on a day triptoFrance to get the Gold in the UK& therefore supplying a few jewellry makers with the Gold VAT free.

Wow. :lol Suppose it would work...
Edited by Blondie girl, 21 Mar 2015, 01:52 PM.
Newjerk? can you try harder than dig up another person's blog. My first promo was with Billabong and my name in English is modified with a T, am Perth born but also lived in Sydney to make my $$
It's Absolutely Fabulous if it includes brilliant locations, & high calibre tenants..what more does one want? Understand the power of the two "P"" or be financially challenged
Even better when there is family who are property mad and one is born in some entitlements.....Understand that beautiful women are the exhibitionists we crave attention, whilst hot blooded men are the voyeurs ... A stunning woman can command and takes pleasure in being noticed. Seems not too many understand what it means to hold and own props and get threatened by those who do.
Banks are considered to be law abiding and & rather boring places yeah not true . A bank balance sheet will show capital is dwarfed by their liabilities this means when a portions of loans is falling its problems for the bank.
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Shadow
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FiatBug
20 Mar 2015, 05:09 PM
Posted Image
Somewhat similar to an analysis I posted last year...

Australian Property vs Gold over the past decade

Posted Image

'Over the past five years, property easily beats gold under all three scenarios. This is to be expected given that the gold bubble popped in 2011 and has crashed nearly 30% since then.

The comparison is more interesting over ten years. Gold easily wins on a pure capital gain basis, but when we include rental income, property comes very close to gold's performance over the past ten years, and if we look at the performance of a typical property investor leveraged at 80% LVR, then property absolutely smashes gold.

So despite the fact that gold experienced its biggest bull run for a generation during this period, a typical property investor still came out miles in front.'
Edited by Shadow, 22 Mar 2015, 10:45 PM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Trollie
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Shadow
22 Mar 2015, 10:43 PM
Somewhat similar to an analysis I posted last year...

Australian Property vs Gold over the past decade

Posted Image

'Over the past five years, property easily beats gold under all three scenarios. This is to be expected given that the gold bubble popped in 2011 and has crashed nearly 30% since then.

The comparison is more interesting over ten years. Gold easily wins on a pure capital gain basis, but when we include rental income, property comes very close to gold's performance over the past ten years, and if we look at the performance of a typical property investor leveraged at 80% LVR, then property absolutely smashes gold.

So despite the fact that gold experienced its biggest bull run for a generation during this period, a typical property investor still came out miles in front.'
Shadow, apply leverage to that. Remember that the stupid goldbugs only ever use the milk money their mum gives them to buy so that's 13% of a pittance.
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Kuyuss
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Shadow
22 Mar 2015, 10:43 PM
Somewhat similar to an analysis I posted last year...

Australian Property vs Gold over the past decade

Posted Image

'Over the past five years, property easily beats gold under all three scenarios. This is to be expected given that the gold bubble popped in 2011 and has crashed nearly 30% since then.

The comparison is more interesting over ten years. Gold easily wins on a pure capital gain basis, but when we include rental income, property comes very close to gold's performance over the past ten years, and if we look at the performance of a typical property investor leveraged at 80% LVR, then property absolutely smashes gold.

So despite the fact that gold experienced its biggest bull run for a generation during this period, a typical property investor still came out miles in front.'
I admire your commitment to the cause. And of course, the reality is not "either or", it's "both." Everyone wins in their own way. The problem is the tit-for-tat of it all serves little purpose. If it all boils down to a mainstream argument solidly built around the idea that with leverage you cannot lose (most of the time). Therefore, the 80% are stupefied into behaving in exactly the same way and forgoing the actually think. It's a kind of cookie cutter life where you follow the simple rules and everything will be provided for.

I like the logic of the idea that house prices have outperformed the "bubble price" of gold, but house prices are not in a bubble. But not that just that, it "smashes" gold for the investor. There you go. Logic for the masses.
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Shadow
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Kuyuss
22 Mar 2015, 11:56 PM
The problem is the tit-for-tat of it all serves little purpose
Then perhaps you should stop engaging in it. ;)
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Kuyuss
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Shadow
23 Mar 2015, 08:34 AM
Then perhaps you should stop engaging in it. ;)
I don't. That's why I predicated with "everyone wins." But suggesting that someone who owns gold has "lost" by not diverting their resources into property is the "tit for tat" that defeats any purpose. It's the same argument you could apply that gold is a "losing investment" because the NZX50 is up 100%+ since the GFC and NZD has appreciated hugely against AUD. Also, it's silly to value an investment decision on whether or not you have to leverage into that investment. Sure, many people will argue that Sydney houses is the safest, most obvious investment on the planet right now for the right person. And there's evidence that many people do believe that. But it doesn't make other investments inferior simply because they don't follow mainstream behavior or what sometimes resembles a national obsession with approval and support from our institutions.
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Shadow
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Shadow
21 Jun 2014, 11:46 AM
Gold is an epic failure.

Below 2009 levels in nominal terms. Even worse in real terms.

The gold bubble popped, yet the silly goldbugs think it's a great investment, despite falling in value for years and paying zero yield...

Posted Image

And still the goldbugs keep hoarding it. But never selling. Goldbugs never sell. So it's completely pointless.

They will die with their little hoard of shiny trinkets still intact, it having provided them with zero income and therefore zero financial benefit during their lives.

That's not an investment. It's a hobby, like collecting stamps.
A year and a half later, and gold is still below it's 2009 level.

That's nearly seven years going backwards, with zero yield.

No wonder Goldbug/FrankRider/TheWholeTruth has vanished.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Rastus2
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Shadow
30 Nov 2015, 12:50 PM
A year and a half later, and gold is still below it's 2009 level.

That's nearly seven years going backwards, with zero yield.

No wonder Goldbug/FrankRider/TheWholeTruth has vanished.

Has property ever had a flat or down 6 year period ?
Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
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Shadow
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Rastus2
30 Nov 2015, 01:55 PM

Has property ever had a flat or down 6 year period ?
Sure, but it always provides a nice rental yield to make up for it.

Unlike depreciating zero yield gold.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Terry
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Shadow
30 Nov 2015, 12:50 PM
A year and a half later, and gold is still below it's 2009 level.

That's nearly seven years going backwards, with zero yield.

No wonder Goldbug/FrankRider/TheWholeTruth has vanished.
The ASX200 is approx 23% lower today than its peak 7 yeas ago "with yield." The gold price has doubled in 10 years "with no yield."

Silly old troll.
Edited by Terry, 30 Nov 2015, 06:36 PM.
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