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Iron ore - supply and demand rides again
Topic Started: 30 May 2014, 03:23 PM (44,297 Views)
miw
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Mustapha Mond
14 Jun 2014, 06:05 PM
Time will tell.
I say the mines will idle.
$60 per ton.
Big call but lets see.

Peter
If they idle you won't get $60/tonne. The price will go back up to about $120, at which point the mines will start production again and the cycle will repeat.
The truth will set you free. But first, it will piss you off.
--Gloria Steinem
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newjez
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miw
15 Jun 2014, 01:18 AM
If they idle you won't get $60/tonne. The price will go back up to about $120, at which point the mines will start production again and the cycle will repeat.
I do find it rather strange that for someone who repeats the mantra 'supply and demand' at every opportunity, that the man doesn't seem to understand what it means.

I would say a bit lower MIW. Maybe 90 - 110 could be a trading range. Might pick up a bit higher if China stimulates, or a bit lower if they hit troubles, but I see 100 as the middle point going forwards. That's about as low as we can go without hitting supply problems.
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Foxy
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Zero is coming...

What if the Chinese buy there own iron ore??
Peter
http://www.afr.com/content/dam/images/g/n/2/1/u/8/image.imgtype.afrArticleInline.620x0.png/1456285515560.png
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newjez
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Mustapha Mond
15 Jun 2014, 02:38 AM
What if the Chinese buy there own iron ore??
Peter
What do you think they do with it? Sell it to the Martians?
newjez
15 Jun 2014, 03:50 AM
What do you think they do with it? Sell it to the Martians?
They could subsidize their iron ore industry - which is I think what you meant. There is logic in this. But I can see many people getting pissed off, both internally and externally.
Edited by newjez, 15 Jun 2014, 03:54 AM.
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
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miw
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Mustapha Mond
15 Jun 2014, 02:38 AM
What if the Chinese buy there own iron ore??
If My Uncle were a women, she'd be my auntie.

They haven't done it in the past. What makes you think they'll do it in the future?
The truth will set you free. But first, it will piss you off.
--Gloria Steinem
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Foxy
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Zero is coming...

miw
15 Jun 2014, 01:40 PM
If My Uncle were a women, she'd be my auntie.

They haven't done it in the past. What makes you think they'll do it in the future?
They will tap the 99.99% pure iron ore.
That is to come.
Peter

Work it out.

The number is 1.



Edited by Foxy, 15 Jun 2014, 07:06 PM.
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newjez
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Mustapha Mond
15 Jun 2014, 06:32 PM
They will tap the 99.99% pure iron ore.
That is to come.
Peter

Work it out.

The number is 1.


You're talking a lot of scrap man.
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miw
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Mustapha Mond
15 Jun 2014, 06:32 PM
They will tap the 99.99% pure iron ore.
That is to come.
Peter

Work it out.

The number is 1.


If you are talking about scrap, you are wrong. China uses all its scrap already. Back in the mid-2000s when there was a huge shortage of steel here, people had me looking around oz to see if I could find scrap to import even.
The truth will set you free. But first, it will piss you off.
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Foxy
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Zero is coming...

miw
16 Jun 2014, 03:02 AM
If you are talking about scrap, you are wrong. China uses all its scrap already. Back in the mid-2000s when there was a huge shortage of steel here, people had me looking around oz to see if I could find scrap to import even.
Yes that is true,
But scrap iron does not disappear.
One day it will start to increase in the % of use.
Every % increase in scrap iron use will decrease the amount of new iron required.
I know this will take time but it may become a trend.
Equilibrium in my view will be reached.

If a butterfly beats its wings just once every 1,000 years on mount Everest one day Mount Everest will be gone.

Peter
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Frank Castle
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Business As Usual

Mustapha Mond
15 Jun 2014, 06:32 PM

The number is 1.


Thanks for the memory jolt :tu:



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