25% annual growth could not be sustained every year for the rest of eternity, no.
Growth is likely to slow, and then after a while prices will decline, then stagnate for a while, then start rising again.
You know... the cycle.
The point is that Ireland coped just fine with higher unemployment for long periods of time.
This type of cycle is dysfunction writ large.
And Ireland didn't cope just fine. It was a basket case. Until the 1990s it was probably the least developed economy is Western Europe will all the attendant social and economic ills.
Right now it is not coping just fine.
Many thousands of its citizens are unemployed or under employed and thousands more have left due to crash.
Social services have been cut to the bone. Homelessness has increased massively.
Ireland is recovering. Slowly.
But when you fall that far, for so long, the only way is up.
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?
The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly. Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
And Ireland didn't cope just fine. It was a basket case. Until the 1990s it was probably the least developed economy is Western Europe will all the attendant social and economic ills.
I lived in Ireland during the 70s, 80s and 90s, and don't recall being particularly miserable, or having to do without anything.
But I suppose, you not having been there, would probably know more about it than me.
I lived in Ireland during the 70s, 80s and 90s, and don't recall being particularly miserable, or having to do without anything.
But I suppose, you not having been there, would probably know more about it than me.
I'm glad you had a nice childhood.
That doesn't change the fact that Ireland was a consistent economic underperformer for most of the post War period.
High unemployment. High emigration. All sorts of other nasties.
Things got better for a spell from the late 90s until the crash in 07 but the history of Ireland is still one of being one of ( if not the poorest performer) of all the Western European countries.
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?
The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly. Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
25% annual growth could not be sustained every year for the rest of eternity, no.
Growth is likely to slow, and then after a while prices will decline, then stagnate for a while, then start rising again.
You know... the cycle.
The point is that Ireland coped just fine with higher unemployment for long periods of time.
Veritas, I know where you're coming from and agree with almost all of what you say on APF, but you have to hand it to skamy and shadow here - they've generally predicted most of the events of the last few years correctly. You're letting your emotions get in the way of an argument which is strictly about outcomes.
Admit, like I have, that you didn't know the depths to which western nations could go to keeping the property bubble rising. They've been doing it for 30 years, chipping away at financial regulators and peddling debt, and every time it blows up they can throw more loose monetary policy on the fire and carry on, albeit with just a little more creativeness to fool us each time. And the reason they can do this is that we let them get away with it.. Nobody ever goes to jail over these heists. Unfortunately history indicates that the only thing that will stop this royal shafting is pitchforks, and I think inequality has a lot further to rise to trigger that.
You can argue the morality point separately, and like I said before I'm with you on that, but it's fallacious to use it ito try and win an argument here against the bulls, that and a massive waste of effort.
"It were not best that we should all think alike; it is difference of opinion that makes horse races." - Mark Twain on why he avoids discussing house prices over at MacroBusiness. "Buy land, they're not making any more of it." - Georgist Land Tax proponent Mark Twain laughing in his grave at humourless idiots like skamy that continually use this quip to justify housing bubbles.
Skamy, last year you told us that the American banks brought down the Irish banks.
That one simple statement revealed that you know nothing of the history of Irelands recent collapse.
If you are stupid enough to believe that out of control house price inflation is indicative of a healthy and recovering economy then you are moronic beyond comprehension.
The whole lesson of the crash in Ireland is that trying to get rich by bidding up the price of houses using money funnelled through reckless banks is the road to ruin.
And yet, somehow, you seem to be arguing that a ramp up in prices like that again is desirable?
You need your head examined love.
You were always completely unable to accept that ordinary Irish people did not bring this crisis down on their own heads. You needed to believe this in order to justify your hopes of a crash in Australia it was always nonsense. You are still spouting this rubbish.
You never understood what I tried to explain and you have been proved wrong and I have been proved right. Man up and stop digging holes.
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993 The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
You were always completely unable to accept that ordinary Irish people did not bring this crisis down on their own heads. You needed to believe this in order to justify your hopes of a crash in Australia it was always nonsense. You are still spouting this rubbish.
You never understood what I tried to explain and you have been proved wrong and I have been proved right. Man up and stop digging holes.
Your prediction was correct. Your assertion that this constitutes an economic recovery is just laughable.
Get your head out of the sand.
"It were not best that we should all think alike; it is difference of opinion that makes horse races." - Mark Twain on why he avoids discussing house prices over at MacroBusiness. "Buy land, they're not making any more of it." - Georgist Land Tax proponent Mark Twain laughing in his grave at humourless idiots like skamy that continually use this quip to justify housing bubbles.
Veritas, I know where you're coming from and agree with almost all of what you say on APF, but you have to hand it to skamy and shadow here - they've generally predicted most of the events of the last few years correctly. You're letting your emotions get in the way of an argument which is strictly about outcomes.
Admit, like I have, that you didn't know the depths to which western nations could go to keeping the property bubble rising. They've been doing it for 30 years, chipping away at financial regulators and peddling debt, and every time it blows up they can throw more loose monetary policy on the fire and carry on, albeit with just a little more creativeness to fool us each time. And the reason they can do this is that we let them get away with it.. Nobody ever goes to jail over these heists. Unfortunately history indicates that the only thing that will stop this royal shafting is pitchforks, and I think inequality has a lot further to rise to trigger that.
You can argue the morality point separately, and like I said before I'm with you on that, but it's fallacious to use it ito try and win an argument here against the bulls, that and a massive waste of effort.
John, I have a social conscience as much as you do where we differ is what is a suitable means to an end.
Bears have been arguing that massive crashes are a good thing and that they will cause banks problems and remove profiteering from the property market. This is a fallacy, the banks always emerge from a downturn with a much much stronger asset book. The only people who suffer in a downturn are young first home buyers and people without vast savings. Each and every downturn that I have lived through increases inequality.
The real people who stood up for working class people and protected them from the worst of the banks bad behavior were politicians who took measure to prevent people losing their homes.
The bears are like little ragged trousered philanthropists wishing calamity on themselves and giving up their benefits such as NG on an empty promise of a cheap home.
The whole crash agenda during the GFC was a main stream media event, it was to benefit the rich at the expense of the poor and it frustrates me enormously to see a good kid like Veritas completely brainwashed by this hogwash.
No decent person would want Australia to suffer as Ireland did, the suicides, the despair, the children forced to emigrate for work again.
Now you guys can sit back and watch the juicy bank record profits and massively increased asset bases and then finally you may understand what a property house price crash does and what a terrible tragedy it can be for all but the big banks and the rich.
Quote:
Bank of Ireland was the subject of a massive stock gamble by North American investors Wilbur Ross and Prem Watsa over the last few years after they sold off part of a stake in the bank in June.
They bought in with an investment of about one billion euro as the financial crisis peaked in early 2011, staving off a further state bailout. The share price was about 10 cents at the time and closed at 33 cents on the back of the deal.
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993 The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
Largely rural population since it's inception as a nation, the influence of the Catholic Church on the constitution was considerable.
In the 90s, the Government looked to develop a high-skills economy, lowering the corporation tax and training graduates to entice in the multi-nationals. Aside from economic change, there was also a lot of social change, it was only in 1992 that contraceptives were made available without prescription.
2001 - IT downturn - property up turn - employment in construction grows
2003 - Government still flush with cash, starts spending
2003- 2007 - Cost of living goes through the roof, migrants flock to country from Africa/eastern Europe - 100% mortgages are sold
2007 - The cost of living gets to be a bit too much, migration starts to slow. Oversupply of houses becomes apparent and suddenly the leverage of developers starts to become an issue.
2008 - Oversupply of houses. Those on 100% mortgages are in trouble. Jobs in Contruction start to dry up
2009 - Recession hits, and Irish banks can't fund developments - the over supply is now apparent and numbers of people in negative equity goes up - Government is forced to nationalize the banks, getting funding from Europe to do so
2009 - present Europe takes over Ireland!
So now they are at a point where they have gone through a relatively successful austerity process that has brought the people to their knees. Since the construction industry is dead nothing is being built, but the demand is still there. Now that the banks have returned a profit they are starting to lend again, to a credit fuelled bubble driven by under supply is probably what's happening at the moment in Dublin.
I reckon Australia now is where Ireland was circa 2001 - it's make or break time. In order to have a healthy property market, Australia should have a big correction to weed out those who have taken too big a risk (whether knowingly or unknowingly), and remove the myth that property never loses.
This is a fallacy, the banks always emerge from a downturn with a much much stronger asset book.
Courtesy of the taxpayer via bailouts by any chance?
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be rising.
Bears have been arguing that massive crashes are a good thing and that they will cause banks problems and remove profiteering from the property market. This is a fallacy, the banks always emerge from a downturn with a much much stronger asset book. The only people who suffer in a downturn are young first home buyers and people without vast savings. Each and every downturn that I have lived through increases inequality.
The crash was the inevitable result of the bubble. Thats the whole point.
Don't blame the crash, blame the bubble.
And the banks only survived due to first being underwritten by the Irish State ( which led to the IMF being called in) and secondly through massive recapitalization programs again funded by the Irish tax payer present and future.
Now, none of that would have been neccessary without the property bubble.
Therefore, property bubbles bad. Slow and steady increases in property prices with tight regulation good. Do you understand? I'm really not sure you do.
Quote:
The real people who stood up for working class people and protected them from the worst of the banks bad behavior were politicians who took measure to prevent people losing their homes.
Would these be the same politicians who did such a sterling job of regulating the banks and then sent the country bankrupt by underwriting their entire rotten loan book?
Also, many of those people who took those loans should have lost their homes. They borrowed more than they could repay. Is it the responsibility of tax payers who are not homeowners or who borrowed prudently to bail out property investors and people who borrowed foolishly?
Quote:
The whole crash agenda during the GFC was a main stream media event, it was to benefit the rich at the expense of the poor and it frustrates me enormously to see a good kid like Veritas completely brainwashed by this hogwash.
Crash agenda? You're an idiot. Again, do you understand that the crash was the inevitable conclusion of the bubble? You get that right? Cause and effect. You understand, yes?
Or perhaps you think the bubble could/should have stayed inflated. If so, please tell me how that would have been possible?
John Frum
26 Aug 2014, 07:46 PM
Veritas, I know where you're coming from and agree with almost all of what you say on APF, but you have to hand it to skamy and shadow here - they've generally predicted most of the events of the last few years correctly. You're letting your emotions get in the way of an argument which is strictly about outcomes.
Admit, like I have, that you didn't know the depths to which western nations could go to keeping the property bubble rising. They've been doing it for 30 years, chipping away at financial regulators and peddling debt, and every time it blows up they can throw more loose monetary policy on the fire and carry on, albeit with just a little more creativeness to fool us each time. And the reason they can do this is that we let them get away with it.. Nobody ever goes to jail over these heists. Unfortunately history indicates that the only thing that will stop this royal shafting is pitchforks, and I think inequality has a lot further to rise to trigger that.
You can argue the morality point separately, and like I said before I'm with you on that, but it's fallacious to use it ito try and win an argument here against the bulls, that and a massive waste of effort.
John,
I agree.
However, I dont think the Irish recovery in terms of property prices is sustainable and will run out of puff.
Or go higher and crash, just like before.
But yeah, all the stops are being pulled out to reinflate the bubble.
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?
The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly. Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
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