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Ireland Faces New Housing Crisis: Dublin property prices jump 25% in a year; Soaring house prices in Dublin spark fears of new property bubble
Topic Started: 29 May 2014, 10:13 PM (4,820 Views)
Veritas
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skamy
26 Aug 2014, 05:57 PM
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http://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/rising-house-prices-lift-45-000-out-of-negative-equity-1.1884332


Come on Veritas you were wrong and you were even accusing me of knowing nothing about my own home country. You just look like a sore loser.

I admit that the price hikes in Dublin are surprising.

But explicable and ( thank goodness ) Dublin is still some way off peak bubble prices.

Thousands are still in NE.

If prices keep raising at this rate it will be just another bubble pure and simple.

25% per year is unsustainable and a bubble.

Returning to 2007 levels would have exactly the same consequences as before.

Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?

The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly.
Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
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skamy
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Veritas
26 Aug 2014, 05:48 PM


You have just insulted 10,000s of people forced to emigrate as a result of corrupt governance and renegade banks.

Well done.

So I take it house price back to 2007 levels would be a good thing then?

You absolute fool.
You know nothing of Ireland's history and your arrogance is appalling. You just come across as a pompous whippersnapper spoilt brat living in a rich country denigrating others from the lofty heights of your own massive ego.

What is wrong with ya?

Of course house prices will rise again and rise by more than 2007 prices.

Silly people told you Ireland was fucked and in your arrogance you believed them.

Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993
The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
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Veritas
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skamy
26 Aug 2014, 06:06 PM
You know nothing of Ireland's history and your arrogance is appalling. You just come across as a pompous whippersnapper spoilt brat living in a rich country denigrating others from the lofty heights of your own massive ego.

What is wrong with ya?

Of course house prices will rise again and rise by more than 2007 prices.

Silly people told you Ireland was fucked and in your arrogance you believed them.
Skamy, last year you told us that the American banks brought down the Irish banks.

That one simple statement revealed that you know nothing of the history of Irelands recent collapse.

If you are stupid enough to believe that out of control house price inflation is indicative of a healthy and recovering economy then you are moronic beyond comprehension.

The whole lesson of the crash in Ireland is that trying to get rich by bidding up the price of houses using money funnelled through reckless banks is the road to ruin.

And yet, somehow, you seem to be arguing that a ramp up in prices like that again is desirable?

You need your head examined love.
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?

The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly.
Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
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Shadow
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Veritas
26 Aug 2014, 05:52 PM
What is that I have been proved wrong about?
A lot, but it would take too long to cover everything here, so I'll go with this quote from Nov 2012...

'Ireland has had a huge crash but hey its been 5 long years and we still havent seen bottom'

And this one from Sep 2013...

'Ireland is five years into the deepest recession in its history. No end in sight.'
Edited by Shadow, 26 Aug 2014, 06:15 PM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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This has just been another artificail propping of the economy and house prices through further debt and having rates at zero for six years.

Youth unemployment is still around 25%, real good, and the rest is still well over 10%.

They now owe three times more debt than they did in 2006 or 2008 and its still rising by the second, with debt to gdp rising by the secong also, see link below.....

http://www.financedublin.com/debtclock.php


So the reality is, artificial measures , extreme artificial measures over six years, with billions more in debt and rates at zero for six years has helped to ease the unemployment rate but it is still astronimically high six years on using such desperate measures, and are still going further into debt by the second to achieve this.

I think they also bulldozered tens of thousands of homes to achieve this. ;)

There debt to gdp, is still inceasing as shown in the link above. That is the proof that the economy IS NOT REALLY RECOVERING, just more artificial measures and debt to make it appear that way.

So come and see me when the debt to gdp is decreasing, not increasing. Until then , any so called recovery is mearely an illuison that is not sustainable.

Debt to gdp increasing is NOT an economy that is improving. Just like applying for another credit card to pay your mortgage becuase you have lost your job , or your new job with lower pay does not cover the bills anymore.
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Veritas
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Shadow
26 Aug 2014, 06:12 PM
A lot, but it would take too long to cover everything here, so I'll go with this quote from 2012...

'Ireland has had a huge crash but hey its been 5 long years and we still havent seen bottom'

And this one from 2013...

'Ireland is five years into the deepest recession in its history. No end in sight.'
Semantics and besides that was two years ago.

It looks like the upward trend in growth is sustainable for now.

It also looks like joblessness is falling on a sustained path.

But the recovery will (and is proving) slow. Unemployment is still at nose bleed levels and that is with the massive safety valve provided by emigration.

To get under 10% unemployment by 2016 will be a massive achievement- and that's almost ten years from when the crash began.

And we don't know what is going to happen with interest rates and Europe is far from out of the woods.

On top of that is the fact that Ireland still has ludicrously high national debt levels that will ( barring some form of jubilee) will be a massive drag on it for years to come.

And where did all the debt come from again? Oh yes, fuckwit bankers and fuckwit developers and fuckwit politicians cheered on by fuckwits like Skamy blowing the biggest property bubble of them all and bringing down the financial system with them.
Edited by Veritas, 26 Aug 2014, 06:20 PM.
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?

The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly.
Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Shadow
Member Avatar
Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

Veritas
26 Aug 2014, 06:19 PM
Semantics and besides that was two years ago.
Yes, two years ago you said we hadn't seen the bottom for house prices, and you said there were no signs of recovery.

But we had seen the bottom for house prices, and employment was recovering, as was the stock market. And they continue to recover.

You asked me what you got wrong, and I told you. Nothing to do with semantics.
Veritas
26 Aug 2014, 06:19 PM
Unemployment is still at nose bleed levels
Then it has been at 'nose bleed levels' for most of the past three decades...

Posted Image
Edited by Shadow, 26 Aug 2014, 06:32 PM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Like veritas said, they are still at nose bleed levels.

And shadows unemployment graph shows it is almost triple what it was ten years ago, and for the last six years we have had rates at zero and billions or trillions of debt pumped in as well.

So considering all that, Ireland is screwed , and none of this is sustainable just as it was not before. Just more debt and having rates at zero to achieve triple unemployment rates from ten years ago.

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Veritas
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Shadow
26 Aug 2014, 06:29 PM
Yes, two years ago you said we hadn't seen the bottom for house prices, and you said there were no signs of recovery.

But we had seen the bottom for house prices, and employment was recovering, as was the stock market. And they continue to recover.

You asked me what you got wrong, and I told you. Nothing to do with semantics.

Then it has been at 'nose bleed levels' for most of the past three decades...

Posted Image
Agreed, price have "recovered" ( lets call it what it is, inflated) by more than I expected or rather, at a far greater rate than expected.

But, clearly, as demonstrated we are not dealing with a properly functioning market and therefore is is highly questionable whether these rises ( and the rate of inflation is sustainable)

Do you think it is sustainable?

As for unemployment. Yes, Ireland suffered massive recessions which precipitated very high unemployment rates in both the 1980s and from 2007/08.

What's your point?

That unemployment is not at nose bleed levels because it was also high in the 1980s and early 90s?





Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?

The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly.
Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Shadow
Member Avatar
Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

Veritas
26 Aug 2014, 06:41 PM
Do you think it is sustainable?
What do you mean by sustainable?

25% annual growth could not be sustained every year for the rest of eternity, no.

Growth is likely to slow, and then after a while prices will decline, then stagnate for a while, then start rising again.

You know... the cycle.

Quote:
 
What's your point?

That unemployment is not at nose bleed levels because it was also high in the 1980s and early 90s?
The point is that Ireland coped just fine with higher unemployment for long periods of time.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
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