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Ireland Faces New Housing Crisis: Dublin property prices jump 25% in a year; Soaring house prices in Dublin spark fears of new property bubble
Topic Started: 29 May 2014, 10:13 PM (4,821 Views)
Veritas
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Shadow
26 Aug 2014, 05:17 PM
If prices recover 25% in just one year then that is a definite sign that prices are recovering. I don't see how you could view it as anything else?

By how much more would prices need to recover before you would concede that they are recovering?
Define recovering? 25% in one year is unsustainable madness.

At what point would it be just another bubble?

BTW, outside of Dublin, property in Ireland is still in big trouble.

The main issue right now in Dublin is supply.

There is a market failure and many would argue a very deliberately created market failure given who is benefitting most from it (the banks)

Then there is the issue of NAMA and all the properties it is holding back from the market and the thousands of homes that, sooner or later, will be coming to market once the foreclosures start in earnest.

Its a Frankenstein market.

Why don't you read all about it here. Its the Irish equivalent of APF from what I can see.

www.thepropertypin.com

Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?

The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly.
Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
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skamy
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Veritas
26 Aug 2014, 05:09 PM


We sure have.

You told us fascinating stories about American banks brining down Irish banks and other fairy tales.

I wouldn't be commenting on Ireland any more dear.

You are clearly very ill informed.
You are such a sore loser Veritas - come on for once give me credit for getting the call on Ireland right when NOONE was willing to make the call.
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993
The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
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Shadow
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Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

Veritas
26 Aug 2014, 05:23 PM
Define recovering?
A recovery in economics generally refers to the period after a crash/recession/downturn etc where prices and other economic indicators start to improve.

House prices are rising right across Ireland, but most strongly in Dublin.

Unemployment is improving steadily and the stock market is rising.

I have family there and they say business is picking up. Confidence is building.

Looks like a recovery to me.

Posted Image
Edited by Shadow, 26 Aug 2014, 05:33 PM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Veritas
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skamy
26 Aug 2014, 05:28 PM
You are such a sore loser Veritas - come on for once give me credit for getting the call on Ireland right when NOONE was willing to make the call.
What call did you get right?

Unemployment is falling but it is still above 10%

Irelands national debt is still sky high.

Personal debt levels are still sky high.

People are still emigrating.

Ireland is recovering slowly because the crash started 7 years ago. But that is a bloody long recession and there is still an awful long way to go.

So what are you asking credit for?

Oh, it must be because house prices in Dublin have risen 25% in one year.

Because that the biggest sign of recovery of all. :re:
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?

The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly.
Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
skamy
Member Avatar


Veritas
26 Aug 2014, 05:23 PM
Define recovering? 25% in one year is unsustainable madness.

At what point would it be just another bubble?

BTW, outside of Dublin, property in Ireland is still in big trouble.

The main issue right now in Dublin is supply.

There is a market failure and many would argue a very deliberately created market failure given who is benefitting most from it (the banks)

Then there is the issue of NAMA and all the properties it is holding back from the market and the thousands of homes that, sooner or later, will be coming to market once the foreclosures start in earnest.

Its a Frankenstein market.

Why don't you read all about it here. Its the Irish equivalent of APF from what I can see.

www.thepropertypin.com
Aha that is where you are getting all your silly ideas from.


The truth is that a recovery in Ireland completely negates your views that all the suffering was worth it doesn't it.

All your dreams of burning the village are all coming to naught thank goodness.

What happens in Dublin and the rest of Ireland, will depend on confidence - have you any idea at all on how large the Irish diaspora is? Many have ridden out this storm in overseas jobs. One day they will return cash in hand to build homes again. I just hope they keep institutional investors and buy to flip speculation out of it this time.


Shadow
26 Aug 2014, 05:32 PM
A recovery in economics generally refers to the period after a crash/recession/downturn etc where prices and other economic indicators start to improve.

House prices are rising right across Ireland, but most strongly in Dublin.

Unemployment is improving steadily and the stock market is rising.

I have family there and they say business is picking up. Confidence is building.

Looks like a recovery to me.

Posted Image
Oh that graph is great, I really hope things are getting better people have really been through a terrible time. I am going over in a few weeks so I shall find out first hand if the youngsters are finding employment at home again.
Edited by skamy, 26 Aug 2014, 05:40 PM.
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993
The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
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Shadow
Member Avatar
Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

Veritas
26 Aug 2014, 05:37 PM
People are still emigrating
People have been emigrating from Ireland for hundreds of years. In the 1800s, the Irish population was around 8-9 million (nearly double what it is today).

Were you aware that people are still emigrating from every country in the world?

Quote:
 
Ireland is recovering slowly
Since you now agree with Skamy that Ireland is recovering, perhaps an apology is in order.
Edited by Shadow, 26 Aug 2014, 05:49 PM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Veritas
Default APF Avatar


Quote:
 
All your dreams of burning the village are all coming to naught thank goodness.

What happens in Dublin and the rest of Ireland, will depend on confidence - have you any idea at all on how large the Irish diaspora is? Many have ridden out this storm in overseas jobs. One day they will return cash in hand to build homes again. I just hope they keep institutional investors and buy to flip speculation out of it this time.


You have just insulted 10,000s of people forced to emigrate as a result of corrupt governance and renegade banks.

Well done.

So I take it house price back to 2007 levels would be a good thing then?

You absolute fool.

Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?

The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly.
Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Shadow
Member Avatar
Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

Veritas
26 Aug 2014, 05:48 PM
You absolute fool.
Such anger and bitterness at being proved wrong again.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Veritas
Default APF Avatar


Shadow
26 Aug 2014, 05:47 PM
People have been emigrating from Ireland for hundreds of years. In the 1800s, the Irish population was around 8-9 million (nearly double what it is today).


Since you now agree with Skamy that Ireland is recovering, perhaps an apology is in order.
Why would I apologise.

Did I ever say that Ireland would never recover?

I never said anything of the sort.

I said the recovery would be slow because of the sheer scale of the crash.

And that is entirely correct.

BTW, Emigration from Ireland ( as you well know correlates with its all too frequent economic busts)

Posted Image

Posted Image


Shadow
26 Aug 2014, 05:50 PM
Such anger and bitterness at being proved wrong again.

What is that I have been proved wrong about?

I think it is wonderful that Ireland is recovering after such a long spell in the doldrums.

Clowns like Skamy are still trying to figure out what wrong in the first place as evidenced by the view that property prices returning to bubble prices can in any way be considered a sign of economic health.

Have you learned nothing from that calamity? :re:
Edited by Veritas, 26 Aug 2014, 05:56 PM.
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?

The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly.
Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
skamy
Member Avatar


Veritas
26 Aug 2014, 05:37 PM
What call did you get right?

Unemployment is falling but it is still above 10%

Irelands national debt is still sky high.

Personal debt levels are still sky high.

People are still emigrating.

Ireland is recovering slowly because the crash started 7 years ago. But that is a bloody long recession and there is still an awful long way to go.

So what are you asking credit for?

Oh, it must be because house prices in Dublin have risen 25% in one year.

Because that the biggest sign of recovery of all. :re:
Posted Image

Quote:
 
At this rate, the ESRI is predicting the number of households in negative equity will have fallen by 43 per cent by the end of the year from its peak in 2012.

http://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/rising-house-prices-lift-45-000-out-of-negative-equity-1.1884332


Come on Veritas you were wrong and you were even accusing me of knowing nothing about my own home country. You just look like a sore loser.


Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993
The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
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