Clearly if you think I'm out of my depth, you have NO clue on property or climate.
Yep, completely out of my depth on property. 9 properties in 8yrs (1/yr on average) since 2006, worth about $3.5m now, on current 30% LVR. $1.1m in loan left. Buying PPOR in Sydney in 2018 (once market corrects a little - I'm expecting 15-20% by 2018 (back to 2012 levels- after a 20% spike since 2012), by selling down 2 investment properties and paying cash for a $900-950K PPOR unit of the harbour. In the meantime get a handful more investmest around the country over the next 3yrs, on our $350k household income (I'm the low income earner in the family, only on $160K/yr contracting in IT). Then pay down everything over the next 7 years (have PPOR and maybe 12 investment properties completely debt free), and retire at 45 in 2021 living off $150000/yr passive income after property expenses and income tax.
SO, SO out of my depth it's unbelievable. Help me Peter, I need your wise assistance. Twits. I'm off to Somersoft. More intelligent like-minded people there. See ya twits.
I'm not saying that you haven't been successful or that you won't become a clever investor, but at this point of time your immaturity shows. You have a high income being in IT and you got a bit lucky - that doesn't make you Einstein. Of course it doesn't mean you are an idiot either.
I honestly hope that you grow into an excellent investor, but you will have to understand your fallibility first.
Except, that, even your chart shows that there was warming, but because you seem to not understand the difference between anomalies and absolute temperature, you are reading it wrong.
This is important. You have revealed your absolute ignorance of the meaning of temperature anomaly and therefore the absolute irrelevance of all your ignorant climate change beliefs.
The chart you are referring to does not show warming over the last 15 or so years. It shows that global temperatures have been around the same temperature anomaly (~0.5 degrees) for that period. No warming - zilch.
Your statement indicates the you have been under the moronic delusion that temperature anomalies on such charts indicate annual temperature rises. They do not. They indicate the absolute change for the respective year with respect to a fixed reference temperature. No change in the temperature anomaly from year to year indicates no change in absolute global temperature. You really must be cringing at your own revelation of your own ignorance.
You have made a enormous cock-up. You have lost your last tiny shred of credibility. You and we now know that you have spent the whole time on this subject talking dribble through your arse.
Now give us all a laugh and dig a deeper hole by waffling your way out of this cock-up.
peter fraser
28 Jun 2014, 03:47 PM
In addition this may be due to a temporary cycle completely unrelated to CO2 in the atmosphere.
Yes, perhaps a natural phenomenon (like the sun's behaviour?) not included in climate change models which could be ever changing.
I'm not saying that you haven't been successful or that you won't become a clever investor, but at this point of time your immaturity shows. You have a high income being in IT and you got a bit lucky - that doesn't make you Einstein. Of course it doesn't mean you are an idiot either.
I honestly hope that you grow into an excellent investor, but you will have to understand your fallibility first.
Lucky? You sound like a bear. You just got to where you are cause you got "lucky". I rad the market when Istarted investing in Sydney at the bottom of the last cycle in 2006), after the peak of 2003, and flat period of 2004-2006. While the bears here were calling a property bubble, I got "lucky" in another 40-50% up property cycle to the end of 2013, in a boom property cycle that was always going to happens. I got "lucky" with a few quick buy/sells around the country as well. Gladstone was the best I've done on any one property. Got a house for $320K in 2010, and then sold 2 yrs later for $570K. No luck there really. Just research, and being ahead of the curve of investors, and the mass of dumb prebs who wait and buy at the top of market. Like the fools who are still buying in Sydney now at the peak, and with 15-20% falls coming though to 2018 once interest rates start rising.
See ya fool. And chill on you alarmist global warming. We are heading into a cooling period the 2020's and 2030's with weakening solar activity.
Kulganis
28 Jun 2014, 11:21 AM
Except, that, even your chart shows that there was warming, but because you seem to not understand the difference between anomalies and absolute temperature, you are reading it wrong.
Excellent catch Strindberg. Completely proves that Kulganis does NOT know how to read the graphs, and what anomalies mean. This twits appears to think that the anomaly is cumulative, and shows the temperature rise from the previous year. IT IS NOT Kulganis, you complete twit. The anomaly means the different between the current temperature, and the average it's measured against. Usually the graphs take this (depending the graph) as the average between period (1980-2008).
COMLETE MORONS on this forum. holy crap, I've never come across such halfwits before. Kulganis, you've just proved you have absolutely no clue what you are talking about. QED..
Kulganis , the graph even says "DEPARTURE FROM 81 - 10 average (1981-2010 average). The attached is the land anomaly only - +0.33deg C in May 2014.
The attached is the land and ocean anomaly combined - +0.76deg C in May 2014.
Yes, perhaps a natural phenomenon (like the sun's behaviour?) not included in climate change models which could be ever changing.
I agree, the sun is our only external source of meaningful energy and it will not be an exact constant, but that neither supports or negates shadows point. How old is our solar system again?
And he is pointing to a seventeen year time frame.
It proves nothing either way does it.
Black Panther
28 Jun 2014, 04:13 PM
Conceited as per usual.
I agree.
I really really wanted to be homophobic, anti-semitic, and believe in hair brained conspiracy theories and flying saucers, but it just wasn't in me.
So, what we've learned from Shadow and Investor888 so far; the first is a hypocrite as he asks people to debate like a grown up when he can't even admit making a schoolboy error, instead inventing comments for other posters and changing the subject rather than admit it, and the second is an arrogant prick.
But obviously both of them are scientists of the highest order, their total command of the subject is quite stunning. Or maybe not. I'll come back next week to see how this is going. Not sure who said it, but to argue with people who are more determined to win the argument than actually learn anything is a futile exercise.
Lucky? You sound like a bear. You just got to where you are cause you got "lucky". I rad the market when Istarted investing in Sydney at the bottom of the last cycle in 2006), after the peak of 2003, and flat period of 2004-2006. While the bears here were calling a property bubble, I got "lucky" in another 40-50% up property cycle to the end of 2013, in a boom property cycle that was always going to happens. I got "lucky" with a few quick buy/sells around the country as well. Gladstone was the best I've done on any one property. Got a house for $320K in 2010, and then sold 2 yrs later for $570K. No luck there really. Just research, and being ahead of the curve of investors, and the mass of dumb prebs who wait and buy at the top of market. Like the fools who are still buying in Sydney now at the peak, and with 15-20% falls coming though to 2018 once interest rates start rising.
See ya fool. And chill on you alarmist global warming. We are heading into a cooling period the 2020's and 2030's with weakening solar activity.
Actually I'm not a bear, at least most wouldn't consider me to be one.
OK - you bought in 2006 because you did your research and decided to buy the - good for you. But you mentioned that you are 39 so you were 31 in 2006 and on good money. Could it be that you just happened to reach a 'home buying age" at the right time. What would your tactic be if you were just reaching that age now? Serious question - what is your answer?
You see it matters when you reach the right point in life when you have the income and deposit together. If that moment in time is after a correction it's a more affordable choice than it would be if you reach the same point as the market approaches the peak, as it is now in Sydney. Prices don't look that affordable at the moment, so buyers hesitate, as you probably would as well.
So to announce to all and sundry that you are exceptionally clever and made all the right choices in life without accepting that you had a bit of luck on your side, pretty much tells us all that you have a few property investment lessons to learn.
Nevertheless I wish you luck, may you continue to prosper with your investments.
Cheers,
Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
OK - you bought in 2006 because you did your research and decided to buy the - good for you. But you mentioned that you are 39 so you were 31 in 2006 and on good money. Could it be that you just happened to reach a 'home buying age" at the right time. What would your tactic be if you were just reaching that age now? Serious question - what is your answer?
Mate, in 2006 I was 4yrs out of a late finisher at uni (and 4yrs into a career), and earning about $75K at the time )perm. Nothing spectacular. And all the bears were calling a property market bubble at the time.
The tactic would be NO different today, or no different in 10yrs time. Property cycles have gone on for a very long time. So, if I was reaching the buying starting age now, I would still follow the same path. Right now in Sydney it's like 2003 was (a market peak), so you can expect a flat and falling market 2015-2017 (I call 15-20% by 2018). I'd invest in other locations around the country (like Brisbane, Central Coast NSW, Tweed, South East Queensland, etc now - nice 6% yields still available - and has been a flat market for 5-8yrs, and set to rise) - and also any other researched areas (not!! Melbourne or Sydney). Then start looking in Sydney 2018/2019 ahead of the next boom rises in the early 20's 2022-2024 my guess is.
So 8yrs from 2014 is 2022. Easy to start investing on $75K/yr in the easy stage of a career, and then build the career, and then portfolio, as your income rises. Get cracking 31yr old people. You could also retire at age 45 in 2029/2030 by then.
Anyway, see you fools.
Upturns of property cycles last twice as long as downturns, and make double the gains as downturn losses. Add Sydney to this Cycle 11 Upswing Mid 2012 - Mid 2014. Downturn Mid 2014 - 2017/2018 3-4yrs.
Mate, in 2006 I was 4yrs out of a late finisher at uni (and 4yrs into a career), and earning about $75K at the time )perm. Nothing spectacular. And all the bears were calling a property market bubble at the time.
The tactic would be NO different today, or no different in 10yrs time. Property cycles have gone on for a very long time. So, if I was reaching the buying starting age now, I would still follow the same path. Right now in Sydney it's like 2003 was (a market peak), so you can expect a flat and falling market 2015-2017 (I call 15-20% by 2018). I'd invest in other locations around the country (like Brisbane, Central Coast NSW, Tweed, South East Queensland, etc now - nice 6% yields still available - and has been a flat market for 5-8yrs, and set to rise) - and also any other researched areas (not!! Melbourne or Sydney). Then start looking in Sydney 2018/2019 ahead of the next boom rises in the early 20's 2022-2024 my guess is.
So 8yrs from 2014 is 2022. Easy to start investing on $75K/yr in the easy stage of a career, and then build the career, and then portfolio, as your income rises. Get cracking 31yr old people. You could also retire at age 45 in 2029/2030 by then.
Anyway, see you fools.
Upturns of property cycles last twice as long as downturns, and make double the gains as downturn losses. Add Sydney to this Cycle 11 Upswing Mid 2012 - Mid 2014. Downturn Mid 2014 - 2017/2018 3-4yrs.
I would say that an absence of bad luck is good luck, but still you've done quite well.
Good on you.
Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
Mate, in 2006 I was 4yrs out of a late finisher at uni (and 4yrs into a career), and earning about $75K at the time )perm. Nothing spectacular. And all the bears were calling a property market bubble at the time.
The tactic would be NO different today, or no different in 10yrs time. Property cycles have gone on for a very long time. So, if I was reaching the buying starting age now, I would still follow the same path. Right now in Sydney it's like 2003 was (a market peak), so you can expect a flat and falling market 2015-2017 (I call 15-20% by 2018). I'd invest in other locations around the country (like Brisbane, Central Coast NSW, Tweed, South East Queensland, etc now - nice 6% yields still available - and has been a flat market for 5-8yrs, and set to rise) - and also any other researched areas (not!! Melbourne or Sydney). Then start looking in Sydney 2018/2019 ahead of the next boom rises in the early 20's 2022-2024 my guess is.
So 8yrs from 2014 is 2022. Easy to start investing on $75K/yr in the easy stage of a career, and then build the career, and then portfolio, as your income rises. Get cracking 31yr old people. You could also retire at age 45 in 2029/2030 by then.
Anyway, see you fools.
Upturns of property cycles last twice as long as downturns, and make double the gains as downturn losses. Add Sydney to this Cycle 11 Upswing Mid 2012 - Mid 2014. Downturn Mid 2014 - 2017/2018 3-4yrs.
Catweasel say it a interesting,
how the mouse frame a arguments base on a mouse house price,
and apply similar to a science,
with use of a historical of mythical the cycles.
Of the course,
exist of a cycle,
require a actual test and observe of a model,
which the free from a creation and narrative.
In a 2003 study, Kevin Dunbar, a psychologist at the University of Maryland, showed undergraduates a few short videos of two different-sized balls falling. The first clip showed the two balls falling at the same rate. The second clip showed the larger ball falling at a faster rate. The footage was a reconstruction of the famous (and probably apocryphal) experiment performed by Galileo, in which he dropped cannonballs of different sizes from the Tower of Pisa. Galileo’s metal balls all landed at the exact same time—a refutation of Aristotle, who claimed that heavier objects fell faster.
While the students were watching the footage, Dunbar asked them to select the more accurate representation of gravity. Not surprisingly, undergraduates without a physics background disagreed with Galileo. They found the two balls falling at the same rate to be deeply unrealistic. (Intuitively, we’re all Aristotelians.) Furthermore, when Dunbar monitored the subjects in an fMRI machine, he found that showing non-physics majors the correct video triggered a particular pattern of brain activation: there was a squirt of blood to the anterior cingulate cortex, a collar of tissue located in the center of the brain. The A.C.C. is typically associated with the perception of errors and contradictions—neuroscientists often refer to it as part of the “Oh shit!” circuit—so it makes sense that it would be turned on when we watch a video of something that seems wrong, even if it’s right.
This data isn’t shocking; we already know that most undergrads lack a basic understanding of science. But Dunbar also conducted the experiment with physics majors. As expected, their education enabled them to identify the error; they knew Galileo’s version was correct.
But it turned out that something interesting was happening inside their brains that allowed them to hold this belief. When they saw the scientifically correct video, blood flow increased to a part of the brain called the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex, or D.L.P.F.C. The D.L.P.F.C. is located just behind the forehead and is one of the last brain areas to develop in young adults. It plays a crucial role in suppressing so-called unwanted representations, getting rid of those thoughts that aren’t helpful or useful. If you don’t want to think about the ice cream in the freezer, or need to focus on some tedious task, your D.L.P.F.C. is probably hard at work.
According to Dunbar, the reason the physics majors had to recruit the D.L.P.F.C. is because they were busy suppressing their intuitions, resisting the allure of Aristotle’s error. It would be so much more convenient if the laws of physics lined up with our naïve beliefs—or if evolution was wrong and living things didn’t evolve through random mutation. But reality is not a mirror; science is full of awkward facts. And this is why believing in the right version of things takes work.
Of course, that extra mental labor isn’t always pleasant. (There’s a reason they call it “cognitive dissonance.”) It took a few hundred years for the Copernican revolution to go mainstream. At the present rate, the Darwinian revolution, at least in America, will take just as long.
I would say that an absence of bad luck is good luck, but still you've done quite well.
Good on you.
If I was starting out now, I would also be factoring in the demographic changes over the next 10-15yrs. Younger people wanting to be closer to action(rather than in the burbs) , and the wave of baby boomers retiring over the next 15yrs and perhaps downsizing, moving for lifestyle. So smaller maintenance townhouses/ villas in good locations close to facilities, or houses where there is development potential, granny flat/ duplex/ subdivision, etc. And for the young, units near the action. anyway I'm off. To much time here procrastinating. See ya.
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