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Global Warming: Glaciers, ice caps and ice sheets are collapsing, and it's unstoppable; How the planet's ice cover is being altered by climate change
Topic Started: 27 May 2014, 01:51 PM (22,669 Views)
Shadow
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Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

peter fraser
27 Jun 2014, 10:20 PM
you are telling me what you want to believe, but it's hardly data.
Whether or not I 'want to believe' the data is irrelevant - the data is the data, and it shows the warming ended two decades ago.

The official Met Office source data is here... http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcrut3/diagnostics/global/nh+sh/

And the chart below is a graphical representation of the data...

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And this one is for ocean temperatures...

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Kulganis
28 Jun 2014, 08:49 AM
some of their models were right
Which models were right? They were 95% certain temperatures would keep rising.

So are you saying 95% of their models were wrong and 5% were right? That's not very reassuring - a random set of data models would have performed better.



Massive
27 Jun 2014, 10:23 PM
scientists have found its apparent that this last decade the atmospheric heat gain has been transferred to the oceans
If that were true, then isn't it possible that some warming in earlier decades was at least partly caused by ocean heat being transferred to the atmosphere?

It's also likely that a lot of warming in earlier decades was caused by the sun.

Here's a thought... perhaps the sun, which burns at 27 million degrees and keeps us warm and helps create our tides and weather patterns, is responsible for most of the heat in our oceans and atmosphere! Sometimes the simple answer is the correct one...

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Edited by Shadow, 28 Jun 2014, 09:17 AM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Kulganis
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Shadow
28 Jun 2014, 08:50 AM
Which models were right? They were 95% certain temperatures would keep rising.

So are you saying 95% of their models were wrong and 5% were right? That's not very reassuring - a random set of data models would have performed better.
There is more than 80 pages of simulations in the AR5 Report, and hundreds of individual models.

What I'm saying is, that the observations fell within the range where the IPCC was 90% confident they would fall, it was not a 'Spectacular Miscalculation' as David Rose puts it.

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In fact, accounting for observational uncertainty, the observations may actually fall within the band that the IPCC were 50% confident they would fall. And on the other hand, may, just, slightly, reach outside the 90% confidence band.
Shadow
28 Jun 2014, 08:50 AM
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Ooooh, correlations, I love this game...

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Obviously, more lawyers cause more suicides... Or is it the other way around?

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Obviously, copying works of art, prevent women in New York from tripping and dying.

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Apparently pets cause suicides...

Edited by Kulganis, 28 Jun 2014, 10:05 AM.
"If man is to survive, he will have learned to take a delight in the essential differences between men and between cultures. He will learn that differences in ideas and attitudes are a delight, part of life's exciting variety, not something to fear." - Gene Roddenberry

"Balloon animals are a great way to teach children that the things they love dearly, may spontaneously explode" -- Lee Camp
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Shadow
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Kulganis
28 Jun 2014, 09:57 AM
In fact, accounting for observational uncertainty, the observations may actually fall within the band that the IPCC were 50% confident they would fall. And on the other hand, may, just, slightly, reach outside the 90% confidence band
The IPCC were 95% certain temperatures would keep rising. Temperatures did not keep rising.

Now the IPCC are scrambling to explain the 'hiatus' that they did not predict...

http://www.dailytech.com/After+Missing+5+Predictions+IPCC+Cuts+Global+Warming+Forecast/article33457.htm

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Quote:
 
Obviously, more lawyers cause more suicides... Or is it the other way around?
It's true that in many cases of correlation, correlation does not imply causation, however the sun actually does cause heat. Here's an experiment you can easily perform at home. Next sunny day, walk outside to a sunny area and note the warmth of the sun on your face. Then move to a shaded area - you should feel an immediate reduction in the heat. Give it a try. There is a clear relationship between the sun and heat. The sun causes heat.

I'm not familiar with the causal relationship between lawyers and suicides... can you explain further?
Edited by Shadow, 28 Jun 2014, 10:30 AM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Foxy
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Zero is coming...

Kulganis
28 Jun 2014, 12:04 AM
I just have to ask, as a test question, what are your thoughts on the Y2K bug?
oh no.

Peter
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Shadow
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Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

Here are some direct quotes from the IPCC 1990 report... http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/far/wg_I/ipcc_far_wg_I_spm.pdf

'emissions resulting from human activities are substantially increasing the atmospheric concen
trations of the greenhouse gases carbon dioxide, methane, chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and nitrous
oxide These increases will enhance the greenhouse effect, resulting on average in an additional warming
of the Earth's surface'


'increase of global mean temperature during the next century of about 0 3°C per decade (with an uncertainty range of
0 2°C to 0 5°C per decade), this is greater than that seen over the past 10,000 years This will result in a
likely increase in global mean temperature of about 1°C above the present value by 2025'


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The IPCC predicted more warming. They got it wrong.
Attached to this post:
Attachments: IPCC_Wrong.jpg (25.25 KB)
Edited by Shadow, 28 Jun 2014, 10:38 AM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Kulganis
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Shadow
28 Jun 2014, 10:17 AM
The IPCC were 95% certain temperatures would keep rising. Temperatures did not keep rising.

Now the IPCC are scrambling to explain the 'hiatus' that they did not predict.
Again, no, the observations, so far, have fallen within their projections; and temperatures are still rising, just not as fast as predicted.

Quote:
 
It's true that in many cases of correlation, correlation does not imply causation, however the sun actually does cause heat. Here's an experiment you can easily perform at home. Next sunny day, walk outside to a sunny area and note the warmth of the sun on your face. Then move to a shaded area - you should feel an immediate reduction in the heat. Give it a try. There is a clear relationship between the sun and heat. The sun causes heat.
Do you know that without greenhouse gases, the earth would be about 40oC colder than it is now.

Here, I never thought any grown person would need a video like this, it was all explained to me in primary school...



Quote:
 
I'm not familiar with the causal relationship between lawyers and suicides.. can you explain further?
No, I think I will leave that to you, if I told you all the answers, how would you learn?
"If man is to survive, he will have learned to take a delight in the essential differences between men and between cultures. He will learn that differences in ideas and attitudes are a delight, part of life's exciting variety, not something to fear." - Gene Roddenberry

"Balloon animals are a great way to teach children that the things they love dearly, may spontaneously explode" -- Lee Camp
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Foxy
Member Avatar
Zero is coming...

Kulganis
28 Jun 2014, 08:49 AM
No, you're confusing 'almost all' to mean 'all', which it doesn't, some of their models were right.

Just like some of their projections were correct, perhaps not the 'worst case scenarios' that you focus on, but that's the thing, they were, 'worst case scenarios', there were scenarios that were 'best case scenarios' and unfortunately, it seems we may be beyond those.
It was all just a scam, and ofcourse the more complex the scam the greater chance the mark can not detect it.
Al Gore is a very rich man now, he could have donated all that extra cash to stop global warming.
But did he??
Yeh right.

Come on boys and girls don't give your candy to the nice man.

Peter
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Kulganis
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Shadow
28 Jun 2014, 10:35 AM
The IPCC predicted more warming. They got it wrong.
No, they didn't, David Rose got it wrong.
"If man is to survive, he will have learned to take a delight in the essential differences between men and between cultures. He will learn that differences in ideas and attitudes are a delight, part of life's exciting variety, not something to fear." - Gene Roddenberry

"Balloon animals are a great way to teach children that the things they love dearly, may spontaneously explode" -- Lee Camp
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Foxy
Member Avatar
Zero is coming...

Kulganis
28 Jun 2014, 10:40 AM
Again, no, the observations, so far, have fallen within their projections; and temperatures are still rising, just not as fast as predicted.


Do you know that without greenhouse gases, the earth would be about 40oC colder than it is now.

Here, I never thought any grown person would need a video like this, it was all explained to me in primary school...




No, I think I will leave that to you, if I told you all the answers, how would you learn?
The video misses the bit where you give the nice man your money????

Now that is not good.

Why not the full story??

Scam alert.

Peter
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Shadow
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Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

Kulganis
28 Jun 2014, 10:40 AM
Again, no, the observations, so far, have fallen within their projections; and temperatures are still rising, just not as fast as predicted.
No, the IPCC predicted atmospheric warming - refer to the chart below.

But atmospheric temperatures are not still rising (hence the IPCC reference to the 'haitus' in their recent report).

Posted Image

'increases will enhance the greenhouse effect, resulting on average in an additional warming of the Earth's surface'

'increase of global mean temperature during the next century of about 0 3°C per decade'

'increase in global mean temperature of about 1°C above the present value by 2025'


Quote:
 
Do you know that without greenhouse gases, the earth would be about 40oC colder than it is now.
This doesn't change the fact that the sun causes warming... try the experiment I suggested if you don't believe me.
Edited by Shadow, 28 Jun 2014, 10:47 AM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
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