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Global Warming: Glaciers, ice caps and ice sheets are collapsing, and it's unstoppable; How the planet's ice cover is being altered by climate change
Topic Started: 27 May 2014, 01:51 PM (22,671 Views)
Kulganis
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Shadow
27 Jun 2014, 07:28 PM
So you believe that the previous warming may have been caused by oceans releasing heat, rather than by humans emitting CO2?
Why is it an all or nothing prospect for you?

I don't think I've ever read anyone saying that humanity is the only driver of the climate.
"If man is to survive, he will have learned to take a delight in the essential differences between men and between cultures. He will learn that differences in ideas and attitudes are a delight, part of life's exciting variety, not something to fear." - Gene Roddenberry

"Balloon animals are a great way to teach children that the things they love dearly, may spontaneously explode" -- Lee Camp
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Massive
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Shadow
27 Jun 2014, 07:28 PM
So you believe that the previous warming may have been caused by oceans releasing heat, rather than by humans emitting CO2?
stop putting words in my mouth strawman ... ( and it doesnt matter what i believe.. )

edit ( this is all my layman, high school science understanding )

the heat from oceans didnt magically appear in the water to warm up the atmosphere, though heat IS transferred to and from the oceans causing variations in atmospheric temperatures ... HOWEVER, we are still seeing an increase in global temperatures, not simply a transfer .. so the question is why ?

Sceintists are telling us CO2 and other greenhouse gasses are trapping more and more heat in the atmosphere before it has a chance to bounce back into to space.. Currently La Nina winds are forcing up cool, deep water that is taking this extra heat and distributing it into the ocean ( while our CO2 is continuing to trap more heat that would have otherwise escaped into space )

What this means is a net heat gain, that may well not have been occuring to the same extent had we not pumped all this shit in our atmosphere to trap the heat in the first place. If all this theory is correct ( and there is a LOT of science behind it ) when this ocean cooling effect is over, there is going to be a ton of heat dumped back into our atmosphere..


Edited by Massive, 27 Jun 2014, 07:40 PM.
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peter fraser
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Shadow
27 Jun 2014, 07:20 PM
No. Why?

Can you post a link to where you believe I accepted that my theory is badly flawed?
I guess that you are in denial then.

Your theory has been debunked but you can't accept that.

Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
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Shadow
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peter fraser
 
Your theory has been debunked but you can't accept that.
First you said I accepted my theory has been debunked. Now you say I can't accept it has been debunked?

What theory are you referring to anyway, and where was it debunked?


Massive
27 Jun 2014, 07:37 PM
we are still seeing an increase in global temperatures, not simply a transfer
We're not seeing an increase in atmospheric temperatures, so if you believe we are seeing an increase in global temperatures despite no increase in atmospheric temperatures, then you must believe there IS a transfer - i.e. the warming that was previously making atmospheric temperatures rise must have been transferred elsewhere (e.g. the oceans)?

Quote:
 
Currently La Nina winds are forcing up cool, deep water that is taking this extra heat and distributing it into the ocean
If that were true, then couldn't the earlier rise in temperatures be attributed to the reverse phenomenon - i.e. El Nino and positive phase decadal variation forcing heat out of the ocean?

Also, La Nina is a fairly regular occurrence (every few years), so why is it that recent La Nina is responsible for the past two decades of non-warming, when over the prior 100 years the La Nina's did not interrupt global warming?
Edited by Shadow, 27 Jun 2014, 09:43 PM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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peter fraser
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Shadow
29 May 2014, 05:01 PM
This is the equivalent of a small child putting his hands over his hears and shouting 'LALALALALA' to drown out anything he doesn't want to hear.

You are doing exactly what you accuse the 'deniers' of doing - i.e. refusing to be educated, and ignoring new data.

As new data comes out, it destroys the false theories and predictions that the alarmists have been spruiking for years.

The tide of data and public opinion is increasingly turning against the alarmists.

Global temperatures haven't been rising for two decades, and Antarctic sea ice coverage is at record levels, debunking the myth that the warming is now hiding in the oceans. Over the next few decades global temperatures will be trending down. It will be very amusing to watch the alarmists spin this cooling as just another 'counter-intuitive sign' of man made global warming. :lol
And here is you refusing to be educated.

You are adamant that because temperatures haven't been rising for twenty years there has been no global warming.

Now that it has been shown that it is very possible to introduce more heat without a rise in temperature your assertion or theory is certainly not absolutely true is it.

It's got more holes in it than the Titanic.
Quote:
 

First you said I accepted my theory was debunked. Now you say I can't accept it has been debunked?

What theory are you referring to anyway, and where was it debunked?


It was the one above and it has been shown to be very questionable, hasn't it. A few pages ago you were relying on it as your centrepiece, now it's in shreds.

What else do you have?

Edited by peter fraser, 27 Jun 2014, 09:56 PM.
Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
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Shadow
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peter fraser
27 Jun 2014, 09:53 PM
You are adamant that because temperatures haven't been rising for twenty years there has been no global warming
I'm adamant there has been no atmospheric warming, which was the IPCC's original method for determining global warming.

Of course that was before the IPCC realised atmospheric warming had stopped and decided the warming must be hiding in the ocean now.

The IPCC predictions (refer to chart below) were based on atmospheric warming...

Posted Image

The IPCC now concede they got it wrong.

There is also no evidence that the oceans are getting warmer. In fact they are getting colder, and global sea ice coverage hasn't really changed in 30 years...

Quote:
 
http://www.bibliotecapleyades.net/ciencia/ciencia_globalwarmingpseudo131.htm

The global sea ice extent today (combined sea ice at both Poles) is nearly the same as the average of the last 30 years according to NASA and NSIDC:

Posted Image

Quote:
 
http://www.bibliotecapleyades.net/ciencia/ciencia_globalwarmingpseudo131.htm

NSIDC/NASA AMSR-E also shows that the overall trend of ocean temperatures since 2002 is one of cooling in spite of a recent short lived El NiƱo warming event:

Posted Image


Quote:
 
Posted Image
Edited by Shadow, 27 Jun 2014, 10:07 PM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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peter fraser
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Shadow
27 Jun 2014, 10:00 PM
I'm adamant there has been no atmospheric warming, which was the IPCC's original method for determining global warming.

Of course that was before the IPCC realised atmospheric warming had stopped and decided the warming must be hiding in the ocean now.

The IPCC predictions (refer to chart below) were based on atmospheric warming...

The IPCC now concede they got it wrong.

There is also no evidence that the oceans are getting warmer. In fact they are getting colder, and global sea ice cover hasn't really changed.
and you're quite entitled to hold that belief, as others are entitled to disagree with you.
Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
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Kulganis
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Shadow
27 Jun 2014, 10:00 PM
I'm adamant there has been no atmospheric warming, which was the IPCC's original method for determining global warming.

Of course that was before the IPCC realised atmospheric warming had stopped and decided the warming must be hiding in the ocean now.

The IPCC predictions (refer to chart below) were based on atmospheric warming...

Posted Image

The IPCC now concede they got it wrong.

There is also no evidence that the oceans are getting warmer. In fact they are getting colder, and global sea ice cover hasn't really changed.
But it's not an IPCC chart, it's a mangled version of the Ed Hawkins original. The IPCC admitted nothing, David Rose thought he could get away with making misquotes, taking people out of context and so on, that you have taken hook, line and sinker.

Here's an updated original, from Ed Hawkins...

Posted Image

Notice how observational uncertainty shows that the observed temperatures could be either, just inside the projections, or just inside the 25-75% Confidence band? Not even close to a "Spectacular Miscalculation"
Edited by Kulganis, 27 Jun 2014, 10:13 PM.
"If man is to survive, he will have learned to take a delight in the essential differences between men and between cultures. He will learn that differences in ideas and attitudes are a delight, part of life's exciting variety, not something to fear." - Gene Roddenberry

"Balloon animals are a great way to teach children that the things they love dearly, may spontaneously explode" -- Lee Camp
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Shadow
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peter fraser
27 Jun 2014, 10:07 PM
and you're quite entitled to hold that belief, as others are entitled to disagree with you.
I'm just telling you what the data says.

The data says there has been no atmospheric warming for two decades, that sea temperatures are falling, and that sea ice coverage has barely changed in 30 years.

The logical conclusion is that it's not getting warmer.

To claim that it is actually getting warmer despite falling sea temperatures and stable atmospheric temperatures requires some pretty convoluted reasoning.

The simple answer is probably the most sensible one - i.e. the reason why the data shows no warming is because there is no warming.
Kulganis
27 Jun 2014, 10:09 PM
The IPCC admitted nothing
Here are some quotes directly from the IPCC's own report...

http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/uploads/WGIAR5_WGI-12Doc2b_FinalDraft_Chapter09.pdf

'the occurrence of the hiatus in GMST trend during the past 15 years raises the two related questions of what has caused it and whether climate models are able to reproduce it'

'During the 15-year period beginning in 1998, the ensemble of HadCRUT4 GMST trends lies below almost all model-simulated trends'

'Almost all CMIP5 historical simulations do not reproduce the observed recent warming hiatus'

They got it wrong, and they admitted they got it wrong.
Edited by Shadow, 27 Jun 2014, 10:12 PM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Kulganis
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Shadow
27 Jun 2014, 10:11 PM
Here are some quotes directly from the IPCC's own report...

http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/uploads/WGIAR5_WGI-12Doc2b_FinalDraft_Chapter09.pdf

'the occurrence of the hiatus in GMST trend during the past 15 years raises the two related questions of what has caused it and whether climate models are able to reproduce it'

'During the 15-year period beginning in 1998, the ensemble of HadCRUT4 GMST trends lies below almost all model-simulated trends'

'Almost all CMIP5 historical simulations do not reproduce the observed recent warming hiatus'

They got it wrong, and they admitted they got it wrong.
I see no admission that they got everything wrong, I see that they are admitting that some of the models they used were not as accurate as they had hoped, but so?

Quote:
 
'Almost all CMIP5 historical simulations do not reproduce the observed recent warming hiatus'
Notice the 'Almost' in there? Does that mean all their projections were wrong?
Edited by Kulganis, 27 Jun 2014, 10:17 PM.
"If man is to survive, he will have learned to take a delight in the essential differences between men and between cultures. He will learn that differences in ideas and attitudes are a delight, part of life's exciting variety, not something to fear." - Gene Roddenberry

"Balloon animals are a great way to teach children that the things they love dearly, may spontaneously explode" -- Lee Camp
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