The most likely explanation for the lack of significant warming at the Earth’s surface in the past decade or so is that natural climate cycles—a series of La Niña events and a negative phase of the lesser-known Pacific Decadal Oscillation—caused shifts in ocean circulation patterns that moved some excess heat into the deep ocean. Even so, recent years have been some of the warmest on record, and scientists expect temperatures will swing back up soon.
et's leave out the insults and stick to the topic please.
You might have missed my earlier reply to you...
Your theory for why there has been no rise in temperatures over the past two decades is that you believe ice is now absorbing all the heat.
My question was why do you believe the ice only started doing this 20 years ago? Why didn't the ice absorb all the heat during the past 100 years too?
My reply was certainly wasn't an insult, I just pointed out your tactics to win an argument rather than mount a substantial case.
As for the issue that I pointed out, what that does is offer an explanation of why temperature changes have been less than in previous periods. Actually that concerns me more than it would if we had constant temperature rises because I know some of the issues involved.
The fact that you cannot grasp that is not adding weight to your argument, in fact it diminishes it.
im amazed the amount of times you claim to "win" arguments
Yes, I'm a pretty amazing guy, but in this case the argument I referred to was the one in which Kulganis claimed that the IPCC had not admitted to the fact that global warming had not occurred for almost two decades. When I provided evidence that global warming had in fact not taken place for nearly two decades, and that the IPCC had in fact acknowledged this, Kulganis said I was full of shit. I assumed he was abusing me because he had lost that argument.
Quote:
there is no conclusive debunking that humans are causing global warming
You mean the warming that the IPCC concedes ended nearly two decades ago despite humans continuing to emit increasing amounts of CO2.
Only half of experts think humans were primarily responsible for that warming.
My reply was certainly wasn't an insult, I just pointed out your tactics to win an argument rather than mount a substantial case.
As for the issue that I pointed out, what that does is offer an explanation of why temperature changes have been less than in previous periods. Actually that concerns me more than it would if we had constant temperature rises because I know some of the issues involved.
The fact that you cannot grasp that is not adding weight to your argument, in fact it diminishes it.
Peter, you've still not addressed the question asked of you:
Quote:
My question was why do you believe the ice only started doing this 20 years ago? Why didn't the ice absorb all the heat during the past 100 years too?
The trouble with the world is that the stupid are cocksure and the intelligent are full of doubt — Bertrand Russell
this is what scientists are saying ( what you or i believe is irrelevant )
The most likely explanation for the lack of significant warming at the Earth’s surface in the past decade or so is that natural climate cycles—a series of La Niña events and a negative phase of the lesser-known Pacific Decadal Oscillation—caused shifts in ocean circulation patterns that moved some excess heat into the deep ocean. Even so, recent years have been some of the warmest on record, and scientists expect temperatures will swing back up soon.
So the scientists are putting forward natural reasons for climate change now? But before they said it was all caused by humans!
If the lack of warming was caused by La Nina and negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation, then doesn't it follow that the previous warming may have caused been by the absence or reverse of those things? They can't have it both ways. They can't say that when temperatures rise it's caused by humans, but when temperatures fall it's caused by natural forces.
peter fraser
27 Jun 2014, 03:29 PM
As for the issue that I pointed out, what that does is offer an explanation of why temperature changes have been less than in previous periods.
Your theory that ice is now absorbing all the heat doesn't explain why the ice only started doing this 20 years ago.
Why didn't the ice absorb all the heat during the past 100 years too?
Peter, you've still not addressed the question asked of you:
Yes I have answered it in full, it's just that you don't understand it.
So my question to you is why haven't you done some basic research to help you understand what is a very elementary characteristic of H2O when it transitions from a solid (ice) to a liquid (water)
Ten year old schoolchildren can understand the physics behind it and it places a serious question over Shadows long held belief that a period of 17.5 years without significant temperature change somehow supports his beliefs - in fact it could well mean the exact opposite.
Surely you understand that.
Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
Ten year old schoolchildren can understand the physics behind it and it places a serious question over Shadows long held belief that a period of 17.5 years without significant temperature change somehow supports his beliefs - in fact it could well mean the exact opposite.
Peter, we understand your theory, and I have reiterated it to you several times so that you realise I understand it.
Your theory is that the lack of warming over the past two decades is a result of ice now absorbing the heat.
It's an interesting theory, but before taking it to the IPCC for their consideration you would need to put some further thought into the question of why the ice only started doing this two decades ago - i.e. why the ice did not absorb all the heat during the prior 100 years too.
I don't have time to play games, but here is a youtube presentation that shows the ice being heated for sometime before there is an appreciable temperature change. A similar effect occurs when the water reaches boiling point. This is simply a characteristic of H2O.
there are probably better examples but I just don't have the time to search for them.
Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
I don't have time to play games, but here is a youtube presentation that shows the ice being heated for sometime before there is an appreciable temperature change. A similar effect occurs when the water reaches boiling point. This is simply a characteristic of H2O.
there are probably better examples but I just don't have the time to search for them.
That's a nice clip, but it still doesn't explain why the ice only started doing this two decades ago - i.e. why the ice didn't absorb all the heat during the prior 100 years too?
If the experiment in the video was performed 20 years ago, and then performed again today, you would expect the same results, right?
But in the case of your sea ice theory, you need to explain why the ice today is behaving differently to the ice 20+ years ago
Peter, we understand your theory, and I have reiterated it to you several times so that you realise I understand it.
Your theory is that the lack of warming over the past two decades is a result of ice now absorbing the heat.
It's an interesting theory, but before taking it to the IPCC for their consideration you would need to put some further thought into the question of why the ice only started doing this two decades ago - i.e. why the ice did not absorb all the heat during the prior 100 years too.
shadow It's not a theory, it's so well understood that people with knowledge wouldn't even mention this. It's like gravity.
You are denying a very basic law of physics.
Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
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