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Bulls gone AWOL, a sign the game is up? They've seen the writing on the wall?
Topic Started: 7 May 2014, 11:25 AM (19,802 Views)
Pig Iron
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Bogan scum

apex
7 May 2014, 11:25 AM
I noticed the forums a lot better recently and couldnt figure out what changed until I realised most of the idiot bull spruikers are MIA or not posting much any more.

There's no sign of shadow for weeks, mike & stringberg not posting much, skamy AWOL.

Did they see the writing on the wall and run away before they have to face the music?

The budget and highest debt in history has got them spooked!

A pity, I hoped they'd stick around and take whats coming to them.

They left peter and frank holding the fort??? :bl:
it's over, they won. it's only idiots like you that can't see it.

oh that's right, property prices "only" up 11.2% yoy.
I am the love child of Tony Abbott and Pauline Hanson
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Sweetdish
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stinkbug
7 May 2014, 01:50 PM
I think this is it. If we were going to have a big crash it would have been 2009/2010, and we all saw what happened then.

In reality, govco could easily stimulate its way out of a another crash if it felt the need.

We're now in the stagnation phase, and it will take several further years to complete. Until then we'll see a few ups and downs but, barring some major catastrophe, little of real significance.

I still maintain that we don't have a bubble, because prices simply aren't high enough relative to purchasing power, yields are too strong and there isn't enough supply in high demand areas.

Just my 2 cents, I know many disagree. But time wil tell...
I agree with pretty much all you are saying except for yields which are awful in capital cities even with historically low interest rates.
From a purely logical stand point there is no reason whatsoever to invest in property right now. Rates will go up eventual bringing down yields even further and prices are most likely stagnating so its a loss no-matter how you look at it. At least in the short term.
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MMM
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stinkbug
7 May 2014, 04:38 PM
Thanks, but I don't watch youtube videos to get investment information.
No stinky, tell everybody the facts.

You have recently bought another four IPS , not to mention at the height of a bubble when the economy is collapsing like never before, but using what home equity you had to do so, you put down no money whatsoever and leveraged at 100% into these properties, they are all negatively geared and your probably paying interest only on all of them . You have not diversified in any shape or form , have thrown all your overleveradged eggs into the one basket , being Canberra, a basket case at best.
You have around ten properties, all in Canberra and they are all dropping in both price and rents.
I'm starting to feel I'll just thinking about it , and I'm not even you.
You jibber that things will improve but know deep down there is no chance in hell of that happening now.

Only an idiot would deny what's happening with the economy now, the government have no answer at all to the jobs losses and simply refuse to talk about it. Tony Abbott talkex about creating a million or so jobs a few months ago, that joke has since gone out the window and there has been no talk whatsoever. They don't have a clue what to do now, that's why they have resorted to robbing the people of more.
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newjez
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Sweetdish
7 May 2014, 04:51 PM

First of all, Im not a bull.
I called top of the market 4 weeks ago which was most likely spot on.
And i did not suggest buying an IP in Melbourne. All I did was ask where you can buy positively geared IP's.

Secondly, you are wrong, there will be no crash. I find that even less likely than a continued rapid price house growth.
What is happening is a flat lining of prices which will continue for the foreseeable future. There is some chance of a small, slow and steady decline as well. But ZERO chance of a crash in the near future. Forget it.

And BTW, I dont own property because i think that Australian property is currently a lousy investment with terrible returns.
I'll keep an eye on it out of interest more than anything. Logic says it should rise. Ad looks to be rising slightly too.

Funny thing politics. They were hero's twelve months ago.
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
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stinkbug
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Sweetdish
7 May 2014, 04:55 PM
I agree with pretty much all you are saying except for yields which are awful in capital cities even with historically low interest rates.
From a purely logical stand point there is no reason whatsoever to invest in property right now. Rates will go up eventual bringing down yields even further and prices are most likely stagnating so its a loss no-matter how you look at it. At least in the short term.
My comment about yields was more in the context of genuine bubble situations than apssing judgement as to whether they are acceptable from an investment perspective. When Tokyo was at its peak, yields on property were around 0.2%. Compared to a Sydney or Melbourne property yielding 2%, this made Tokyo prices 10 times higher for the same rental return! Now that's a bubble!
---------------------------------------------------------------

While it's true that those who win never quit, and those who quit never win, those who never win and never quit are idiots.

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MMM
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Pig Iron
7 May 2014, 04:51 PM
it's over, they won. it's only idiots like you that can't see it.

oh that's right, property prices "only" up 11.2% yoy.
Over alright Timmy. Only an idiot could not see how this will end.

They like you were not able to see the bigger picture here.

All over for iron ore prices to Timmy, the Perth bubble was built on iron ore prices, and will collapse along with it.

Over Timmy, over......

The fat lady is singing loud and clear over there. Turning Japanese Timmy, I really think so..

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goldbug
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stinkbug
7 May 2014, 11:27 AM
The forum's been a bit quiter lately anyway. Fewer crash-spruikers too, which has been good.
The only people here I have ever heard using the crash word are the bulls. And here you are, using it again? I think years ago there was talk of a crash but instead we got a screwed up market and a bigger bubble so don't go thinking just because we never got the "Crash" some prediced you are out of the woods SB. Far from it in fact. Now you are even deeper in the woods, and even more capital has been wasted funding residential that could have steered into more logical investments to weather the turmoil we are now in.

Landlords all across the country are now experiencing broken leases, long voids and stagnant or falling rents. It will only get worse I am afraid.

Shadow was hopelessly wrong about the Gold Bull Market.
What else is he wrong about?
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stinkbug
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MMM
7 May 2014, 04:58 PM
No stinky, tell everybody the facts.

You have recently bought another four IPS , not to mention at the height of a bubble when the economy is collapsing like never before, but using what home equity you had to do so, you put down no money whatsoever and leveraged at 100% into these properties, they are all negatively geared and your probably paying interest only on all of them . You have not diversified in any shape or form , have thrown all your overleveradged eggs into the one basket , being Canberra, a basket case at best.
You have around ten properties, all in Canberra and they are all dropping in both price and rents.
I'm starting to feel I'll just thinking about it , and I'm not even you.
You jibber that things will improve but know deep down there is no chance in hell of that happening now.

Only an idiot would deny what's happening with the economy now, the government have no answer at all to the jobs losses and simply refuse to talk about it. Tony Abbott talkex about creating a million or so jobs a few months ago, that joke has since gone out the window and there has been no talk whatsoever. They don't have a clue what to do now, that's why they have resorted to robbing the people of more.
Now you're making shit up again.

I didn't use home equity (because I didn't need to). My portfolio is not negatively geared (and doesn't need to be). I'm paying down my own home loan principle at the rate of many thousands of dollars each month (I'll own it outright in a few years). My properties are not overleveraged, or even all on interest only.

Again, you've shown yourself to be an ignorant fool.
goldbug
7 May 2014, 05:25 PM
The only people here I have ever heard using the crash word are the bulls. And here you are, using it again? I think years ago there was talk of a crash but instead we got a screwed up market and a bigger bubble so don't go thinking just because we never got the "Crash" some prediced you are out of the woods SB. Far from it in fact. Now you are even deeper in the woods, and even more capital has been wasted funding residential that could have steered into more logical investments to weather the turmoil we are now in.

Landlords all across the country are now experiencing broken leases, long voids and stagnant or falling rents. It will only get worse I am afraid.
You don't think talk by known bears of widespread job losses, end of the mining boom, manufacturing collapsing and unemployment jumping equate to talk of a property price crash? Um, ok...
Edited by stinkbug, 7 May 2014, 05:35 PM.
---------------------------------------------------------------

While it's true that those who win never quit, and those who quit never win, those who never win and never quit are idiots.

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MMM
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stinkbug
7 May 2014, 05:33 PM
Now you're making shit up again.

I didn't use home equity (because I didn't need to). My portfolio is not negatively geared (and doesn't need to be). I'm paying down my own home loan principle at the rate of many thousands of dollars each month (I'll own it outright in a few years). My properties are not overleveraged, or even all on interest only.

Again, you've shown yourself to be an ignorant fool.

You don't think talk by known bears of widespread job losses, end of the mining boom, manufacturing collapsing and unemployment jumping equate to talk of a property price crash? Um, ok...
Yeh I'm making up shit again stinky.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bNmcf4Y3lGM&feature=youtube_gdata_player

Everybody in canberra knows it but you.

http://m.canberratimes.com.au/domain/real-estate-news/act-house-prices-fall-most-in-australia-20140423-374si.html

All made up shit , right stinky.......
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goldbug
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peter fraser
7 May 2014, 02:26 PM
newjez
7 May 2014, 01:51 PM
Is there any data out for Brisbane yet Peter? I know you said it was starting to get hot a month or so ago.

Everywhere else seems to have run it's course. Whether it will fall from here depends on many things.
Prices have risen about 7% or so above the trough
I have pointed out before that such figures are meaningless. median home prices in brisbane have been pushed up by the high end, specifically by the abundance of inner city properties that have seen old homes demolished and expensive new homes built on the site. Or homes bought, madeover, and subsequently resold at a much higher price.

This is all that's going on building wise in Bribane now. New estates, if being built, are far out either in redlands shire or logan city and beyond, or up in the northern shires. none of which effect Brisbane prices.

Take a suburb, a nice suburb, but one that doesn't lend itself to this sort of quick buck making. Algester, all brick homes, upmarket. Read the old listed prices against what they are asking today and you will see that asking prices are down.

http://www.oldlistings.com.au/real-estate/QLD/Algester/4115/buy/

I wont cherry pick it, there are dozens of pages but the first five or so have homes and units listed for sale recently. If you scan down and look at ones where a price from 12 months ago is also listed the pattern is obvious. Asking prices are falling which means final sale prices will be lower still.

Try Carindale, another nice leafy suburb with young brick homes
http://www.oldlistings.com.au/real-estate/QLD/Carindale/4152/buy/
Same story. Pick a few suburbs yourself, but not any with lots of old wooden dumps.

Here, this is typical example of why not. Tarragindi, all old queenslanders and little wooden dumps.
26 Andew Av 647 m2
Last Advertised Price :
March 2014 $1,095,000 Offers
January 2012 $510,000 Offers
http://www.oldlistings.com.au/real-estate/QLD/Tarragindi/4121/buy/

This andrew avenue property has gone up 50% in 2 years, I bet if I drove by it I would find a big new Mac Mansion on it. And Bingo! Home prices in Tarragindi are going through the roof.

But not all home prices...
117 toohey Rd
March 2014 $895,000 Offers over
June 2011 $950,000
May 2011 By Negotiation
May 2011 $950,000


It's all bullshit peter.
Shadow was hopelessly wrong about the Gold Bull Market.
What else is he wrong about?
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