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Bulls gone AWOL, a sign the game is up? They've seen the writing on the wall?
Topic Started: 7 May 2014, 11:25 AM (19,803 Views)
stinkbug
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newjez
7 May 2014, 01:51 PM

Without China it may have, but then a great many things could have happened without China. Who would have thought China would save the world?
Good point.

Bear in mind, though, that as this decade progresses, we are becoming steadily less dependent on China (although they are still a major player). I've seen dept of finance information that strongly suggests that by 2020 China will no longer be our largest export destination.
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While it's true that those who win never quit, and those who quit never win, those who never win and never quit are idiots.

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MMM
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stinkbug
7 May 2014, 01:50 PM
I think this is it. If we were going to have a big crash it would have been 2009/2010, and we all saw what happened then.

In reality, govco could easily stimulate its way out of a another crash if it felt the need.

We're now in the stagnation phase, and it will take several further years to complete. Until then we'll see a few ups and downs but, barring some major catastrophe, little of real significance.

I still maintain that we don't have a bubble, because prices simply aren't high enough relative to purchasing power, yields are too strong and there isn't enough supply in high demand areas.

Just my 2 cents, I know many disagree. But time wil tell...
Time will tell alright stinky.

You want talk about rent yields , the poor excuse for return on most property. Rents in Canberra are already down 15% in the last year or so and will be dropping much further for who knows how long.

You people simply don't understand we have lost jobs that will never return , and our wages are in such a bubble we have no chance in hell or competing with anybody else. What don't you people understand about that comment......

Why would a big crash happen in 2009 /10 , interest rates had been dropped and we were still riding the back end of a mining boom and our economy looked much better back then than it does now. And the sheep had not been educated on the overall extent of the downturn happening in the economy.

The chines property bubble has now burst , you all thought that wouldn't happen either. Took a while stinky , was only a matter of time.

Guess what stinky , its not different here.
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peter fraser
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newjez
7 May 2014, 01:51 PM
Is there any data out for Brisbane yet Peter? I know you said it was starting to get hot a month or so ago.

Everywhere else seems to have run it's course. Whether it will fall from here depends on many things.
Prices have risen about 7% or so above the trough, and I think we will see another 7% to 12% growth then it will top out, still below the past high in real terms. It won't get as hot as Sydney, we have much better supply than Sydney.

No one in the industry wants a hot market, it's bad for business. It makes vendors greedy and reluctant to sell until there is no stock on the market, and it makes some buyers do silly things.

You can see how Brisbane has been rising steadily here - http://www.rpdata.com/research/back_series.html
That data is about 2 to 3 months old although it's updated daily. I was looking actively at houses a few weeks ago and it was stronger than the data suggested, but I think the talk of our federal government introducing a deficit tax has dampened the market across Australia. Given the backlash within the Liberal Party I expect almost nothing to come of it as Hockey and Abbot look for ways to save face in the backflip they are about to do.

The state governments really need the revenue raised from housing, so they will scream if the Libs don't correct their political errors quickly, and they will want more from Canberra, which blows out the budget debt even more. Abbot and Hockey have become inept clowns.
Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
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stinkbug
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MMM
7 May 2014, 02:07 PM
Time will tell alright stinky.

You want talk about rent yields , the poor excuse for return on most property. Rents in Canberra are already down 15% in the last year or so and will be dropping much further for who knows how long.

You people simply don't understand we have lost jobs that will never return , and our wages are in such a bubble we have no chance in hell or competing with anybody else. What don't you people understand about that comment......

Why would a big crash happen in 2009 /10 , interest rates had been dropped and we were still riding the back end of a mining boom and our economy looked much better back then than it does now. And the sheep had not been educated on the overall extent of the downturn happening in the economy.

The chines property bubble has now burst , you all thought that wouldn't happen either. Took a while stinky , was only a matter of time.

Guess what stinky , its not different here.
Lost jobs will never return? Why not? What about next decade when the world economy is very different? What about as Australia's population grows? Or our mineral exports grow? Or our professional services sector provides services to Asia as it grows and develops over the next few decades?

Big call MMM. I guess we will have to wait and see. (In the meantime, though, I'm quite happy to live a comfortable, wealthy life in a comfortable, wealthy country).
---------------------------------------------------------------

While it's true that those who win never quit, and those who quit never win, those who never win and never quit are idiots.

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MMM
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stinkbug
7 May 2014, 02:31 PM
Lost jobs will never return? Why not? What about next decade when the world economy is very different? What about as Australia's population grows? Or our mineral exports grow? Or our professional services sector provides services to Asia as it grows and develops over the next few decades?

Big call MMM. I guess we will have to wait and see. (In the meantime, though, I'm quite happy to live a comfortable, wealthy life in a comfortable, wealthy country).
Big call....... its a fact :bye:
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stinkbug
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MMM
7 May 2014, 02:36 PM
Big call....... its a fact :bye:
No it's not a fact. It's your magical crystal ball again!
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While it's true that those who win never quit, and those who quit never win, those who never win and never quit are idiots.

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MMM
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stinkbug
7 May 2014, 02:56 PM
No it's not a fact. It's your magical crystal ball again!
Looking back at my post, it was all clearly facts mentioned there.

Did you see this stinky......

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bNmcf4Y3lGM&feature=youtube_gdata_player

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stinkbug
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MMM
7 May 2014, 03:05 PM
Looking back at my post, it was all clearly facts mentioned there.

Did you see this stinky......

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bNmcf4Y3lGM&feature=youtube_gdata_player
Thanks, but I don't watch youtube videos to get investment information.
---------------------------------------------------------------

While it's true that those who win never quit, and those who quit never win, those who never win and never quit are idiots.

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Pig Iron
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Bogan scum

MMM
7 May 2014, 12:17 PM
You can only deny the obvious for so long.
why? you've been doing it for years without a problem.
I am the love child of Tony Abbott and Pauline Hanson
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Sweetdish
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MMM
7 May 2014, 01:33 PM
The delusion continues,just when you thought it was over.

The reality is they know they have lost, and they know the imminent price crash is simply a matter of time now.

Why don't you go and buy a unit in Melbourne for an ip as you suggested the other day sweet dish.

First of all, Im not a bull.
I called top of the market 4 weeks ago which was most likely spot on.
And i did not suggest buying an IP in Melbourne. All I did was ask where you can buy positively geared IP's.

Secondly, you are wrong, there will be no crash. I find that even less likely than a continued rapid price house growth.
What is happening is a flat lining of prices which will continue for the foreseeable future. There is some chance of a small, slow and steady decline as well. But ZERO chance of a crash in the near future. Forget it.

And BTW, I dont own property because i think that Australian property is currently a lousy investment with terrible returns.
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