Under our system of enclosed land, land values must increase in value, I know that.
Sorry, that just is not a given. It is only a given if there is rising demand. We don't HAVE to have rising demand. Turn off the immigration tap and demand would decline. Emigration is now almost 100K per year.
Second, the land's value is not increasing, only it's relative scarcity. Our system of enclosed land distorts the supply side. If demand rises, the land becomes relatively more scarce, and those with monopoly control over it can extract higher rents, but that can only continue if demand continues to rise.
------------------------------ " ... which is that all-too-familiar dynamic in Irish life where people tell lies, cover them up and create all sorts of collateral damage, sometimes spread out over decades, and never take responsibility." - Alan Glynn
Come on, Veritas. There was a time when you used to give a real contest. Nowadays you only seem interested in petty point-scoring and silly one-upmanship. Please make the case for a crash with some relevant analysis.
I think its a perfectly reasonable response to the self administered blow job that I was replying too.
Only a fool or a knave continues to argue a point that they are convinced they have already won.
Which do you think Shadow is?
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?
The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly. Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
I think its a perfectly reasonable response to the self administered blow job that I was replying too.
Only a fool or a knave continues to argue a point that they are convinced they have already won.
Which do you think Shadow is?
This is not what we should be arguing about. It's just silly point-scoring. Let's argue about the fundamentals and outlook for the Australian property market.
The trouble with the world is that the stupid are cocksure and the intelligent are full of doubt — Bertrand Russell
Please make the case for a crash. Explain why you think it will happen. Back up your predictions with some analysis. Come on, you can do better than your recent posts.
There was a time when bears used to do just that. I remember Foundation offering what he claimed to be mathematical proof that a crash was inevitable. It was interesting addressing his ideas. I remember he also provided a picture of a tank of water representing money in housing with various pipes pouring money in and other pipes draining money. Again, it was interesting for discussion. The good old days.
There was a time when bears used to do just that. I remember Foundation offering what he claimed to be mathematical proof that a crash was inevitable. It was interesting addressing his ideas. I remember he also provided a picture of a tank of water representing money in housing with various pipes pouring money in and other pipes draining money. Again, it was interesting for discussion. The good old days.
This just a rehash of what I wrote in the previous post - you come to an anonymous forum to argue with others because you want to be stimulated by intelligent discussion, not to increase your social standing.
And if you'd read any economic history you would of course know about Long Term Capital Managment, an algo hedge fund run by smart boffins that required a massive bail out when the developers discovered they hadn't anticipated Russia's government bonds defaulting. Proof if ever there was needed that mathematical wherewithal is no match for the vagaries of the global market.
It's obvious to anyone with half a brain that australia is in a dangerous spot, leveraged to the eyeballs with property and facing the very real risk of getting caught with a mountain of debt in a low growth environment. Its also obvious that all the usual attempts to stimulate via loose monetary policy are currently just pumping up assest prices and reducing yields.
But anyone who claims to know exactly when or how this will all keel over is just trying to sell you something. All we can do is get on public forums and rant. And be extremely pedantic to feel superior.
"It were not best that we should all think alike; it is difference of opinion that makes horse races." - Mark Twain on why he avoids discussing house prices over at MacroBusiness. "Buy land, they're not making any more of it." - Georgist Land Tax proponent Mark Twain laughing in his grave at humourless idiots like skamy that continually use this quip to justify housing bubbles.
There was a time when bears used to do just that. I remember Foundation offering what he claimed to be mathematical proof that a crash was inevitable. It was interesting addressing his ideas. I remember he also provided a picture of a tank of water representing money in housing with various pipes pouring money in and other pipes draining money. Again, it was interesting for discussion. The good old days.
Youre not here to discuss, you are here to spin.
If you were here to discuss you would discuss nonsensical statments made by the bulls.
But you dont.
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?
The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly. Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
I genuinely don't get why there is so much emphasis on this bull & bear stuff, I believe it gets exaggerated.
It's an overkill really.
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I'm only stating what's been brought up out there by others & it's yes lot of speculation about this shadow, you have also been out there mentioned.
What has been 'brought up', where?
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It's not my doing.
What's not your doing?
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So don't try & make me look like a b.
You don't need any help in that regard. If you just stopped randomly abusing posters perhaps you wouldn't cop it yourself and you wouldn't look like a bitch.
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Now do please leave me alone because you are trolling me. Please.
It's a public forum. I'll post what I like till I'm asked to stop by a mod.
If you don't like what I say then put me on ignore. Ignorance is bliss!
If you were here to discuss you would discuss nonsensical statments made by the bulls.
But you dont.
Like skamys claim that Perth prices haven't changed since 2007. The only bull I've seen stringbean challenge is Peter, and I assume they must have fallen out on macro business.
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
The only bull I've seen stringbean challenge is Peter, and I assume they must have fallen out on macro business.
No it wasn't MB it was when he and shadow were wrong on whether or not a mortgage can be called on even if the repayments are being met. Whilst in practice I agreed with him and I know that won't happen in 99.999% of cases, I also know that the mortgages do contain that ability and in rare circumstances that clause could be invoked.
I would like to think that occasionally I can overcome my natural optimistic bias and accept that sometimes markets fall, in fact I like taking advantage of those moment in time although I don't wish for them.
Strindberg is an exceptionally good blogger but he sees things in black and white whereas I'm stuck in the reality of dealing with shades of grey, which is normal for markets no matter how much they are regulated.
Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
No it wasn't MB it was when he and shadow were wrong on whether or not a mortgage can be called on even if the repayments are being met. Whilst in practice I agreed with him and I know that won't happen in 99.999% of cases, I also know that the mortgages do contain that ability and in rare circumstances that clause could be invoked.
It'd be rarer than that, a 0.001% chance would mean it happens 50 times a year (5 million mortgaged homes in Oz). If it happened that much we'd have heard about it. If it happened once we'd have heard about it! I've never heard of it happening, probably cos a bank would have no reason to do it. What would be the point of calling in a loan if the repayments are being met. It's one of those silly bear myths that just won't die!
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