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Real Wages Now Falling; Is this how it ends?
Topic Started: 19 Feb 2014, 05:48 PM (7,694 Views)
Dr Kinetoscope
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"The latest wage price index - the Reserve Bank's preferred measure of wages growth - saw the annual rate ease to 2.6 per cent, the lowest level since the data series began in 1997."
I really can't see how this can be dressed up as anything but bad news.
Architecture Porn
ShadBerg's torrid Macrobusiness love affair
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Poontang
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Perthite
19 Feb 2014, 06:53 PM
Lets just get something straight besides the semantics...

Do you think wages will outpace inflation over the next 12 months?
Quote:
 
Strindberg: Your joy at this may be short lived. The ABS Wages Index was reported today to be at 2.6% (CPI is 2.7%?). I see MB are dancing with glee at these figures.

The wages index (based on the hourly rate) is not the same as actual average earnings. It includes many adjustments.



Average Weekly Earnings data will be published by the ABS tomorrow. It typically records greater rises than the wages index. I don't know why.

If tomorrows earnings data comes in lower than CPI then you are welcome to gloat. If it comes in higher than CPI then I will remind you of this post.



The trend is the issue.
There are some people who seem angry and continuously look for conflict.
Walk away, the battle they are fighting isn't with you, it's with themselves.

The first lesson of economics is scarcity: There is not enough of anything to satisfy all who want it.
The first lesson of politics is to disregard the first lesson of economics. ~ Thomas Sowell.

Who was the fool, who the wise man, who the beggar or the Emperor? Whether rich or poor, all are equal in death.
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Strindberg
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Perthite
19 Feb 2014, 06:53 PM
Lets just get something straight besides the semantics...

Do you think wages will outpace inflation over the next 12 months?
I believe average weekly earnings as per ABS 6302.0 will grow more than CPI over the next 12 months. Perhaps not by much and I don't guarantee it.

I don't know enough about the wages index to make a prediction and I'm not really interested in knowing more about it because it doesn't tell us if and how much earnings are increasing. I'm more interested in whether people are earning more and the Average Weekly Earnings report seems to provide that.
Housing costs to Income broadly unchanged since 1994 - re-ratified here
The People of Australia have the highest median wealth in the World
2002-2012 10 year house price growth the SLOWEST since 1952-1962
"There are two kinds of people in this world: ones that fiddle around wondering whether a thing's right or wrong and guys like us." (Hugo to Gagin in Ride the Pink Horse)
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Veritas
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Dr Kinetoscope
19 Feb 2014, 07:05 PM
"The latest wage price index - the Reserve Bank's preferred measure of wages growth - saw the annual rate ease to 2.6 per cent, the lowest level since the data series began in 1997."
I really can't see how this can be dressed up as anything but bad news.

Shadberg. I like it. :D
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?

The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly.
Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
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goldbug
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lulldapull
19 Feb 2014, 06:58 PM


The real fun will begin when the broke corporations will force the government on not only austerity, as that's in style now, or worse start cutting off the welfare and retirement benefits.

Then all of the them will shut the fukk up quick. Enjoy the show, as it has begun.
It has begun alright, all across the globe. Deflation!
It spells doom for anyone with debt, it spells doom for house prices and yields.
I have warned about this for years, it's the end game of a debt super-cycle and un-avoidable. It's how they clear the books and reset the system for the next cycle. If you see it coming you can hoard up cash and cash equivalents an have a field day when the prices of everything crash.

Bring it on.
Shadow was hopelessly wrong about the Gold Bull Market.
What else is he wrong about?
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Pig Iron
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Bogan scum

Perthite
19 Feb 2014, 06:06 PM
Still had the balls to make this call. Where was your crystal ball dhead.
where did you make this call.

constant moaning doesn't count as a call, a call has a beginning and an end.
lulldapull
19 Feb 2014, 06:58 PM
these are all pensioners here Perthite...........loose comment after another, whereas the daily jobs bloodbath on the news points to a near collapse of the economy.

The real fun will begin when the broke corporations will force the government on not only austerity, as that's in style now, or worse start cutting off the welfare and retirement benefits.

Then all of the them will shut the fukk up quick. Enjoy the show, as it has begun.

nothing will make me happier then seeing a lot of these freeloaders denied of their 'entitlements'......
FMG announced a record profit. so much for those broke corporations you keep bleating about. :bye:



http://www.perthnow.com.au/business/fortescue-metals-group-posts-record-halfyear-profit/story-fnhocr4x-1226831610742
Edited by Pig Iron, 19 Feb 2014, 09:32 PM.
I am the love child of Tony Abbott and Pauline Hanson
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Joseph
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"the recent pick up in housing construction saw demand for labourers surge by nearly 10 per cent in january"

There is always work for the willing Perthite.
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Strindberg
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Strindberg
19 Feb 2014, 06:25 PM
Your joy at this may be short lived. The ABS Wages Index was reported today to be at 2.6% (CPI is 2.7%?). I see MB are dancing with glee at these figures.

The wages index (based on the hourly rate) is not the same as actual average earnings. It includes many adjustments.



Average Weekly Earnings data will be published by the ABS tomorrow. It typically records greater rises than the wages index. I don't know why.

If tomorrows earnings data comes in lower than CPI then you are welcome to gloat. If it comes in higher than CPI then I will remind you of this post.
So, no surprise.
http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Products/6302.0~Nov+2013~Main+Features~Key+Figures?OpenDocument

Average Weekly earnings growing faster than CPI.

AWE Nov 2012-Nov 2013 +3.2%.

REAL AWE continues growing.
Edited by Strindberg, 20 Feb 2014, 01:41 PM.
Housing costs to Income broadly unchanged since 1994 - re-ratified here
The People of Australia have the highest median wealth in the World
2002-2012 10 year house price growth the SLOWEST since 1952-1962
"There are two kinds of people in this world: ones that fiddle around wondering whether a thing's right or wrong and guys like us." (Hugo to Gagin in Ride the Pink Horse)
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Veritas
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Joseph
19 Feb 2014, 10:08 PM
"the recent pick up in housing construction saw demand for labourers surge by nearly 10 per cent in january"

There is always work for the willing Perthite.
So all those millions of unemployed European and American youths are not willing to work? :re:
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?

The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly.
Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
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Dr Watson
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Dr Kinetoscope
19 Feb 2014, 07:05 PM
"The latest wage price index - the Reserve Bank's preferred measure of wages growth - saw the annual rate ease to 2.6 per cent, the lowest level since the data series began in 1997."
I really can't see how this can be dressed up as anything but bad news.
If one were a housing bull, it could be seen as good news in the sense that it puts downward pressure on the cash rate. if the RBA decides to resume cutting because of this (and other) bad news house prices will trend higher. People will borrow as much as the RBA allows them to.
The trouble with the world is that the stupid are cocksure and the intelligent are full of doubt — Bertrand Russell
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