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The subject of Global Warming seems to have cooled?; Ice storms put the dampers on global warming
Topic Started: 15 Feb 2014, 12:21 AM (8,018 Views)
Foxy
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Zero is coming...

Can we green house gas the bit coins with Brawndo?
Would that work?
Peter
http://www.afr.com/content/dam/images/g/n/2/1/u/8/image.imgtype.afrArticleInline.620x0.png/1456285515560.png
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Strindberg
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peter fraser
16 Feb 2014, 02:40 PM
I'm from North Qld and I take cyclones quite seriously. The cyclone season has been extended, and they are coming further south.
You must have been listening to Bob Brown and Christine Milne. It appears they are wrong, according to cyclone records.

Quote:
 
Applying the palaeo-tropical cyclone record
Jonathan Nott
James Cook University, Cairns, Australia

....
Two examples of these uses of long term cyclone records are presented here.
The first involves the development of a robust statistical technique to derive the return periods of various magnitude tropical cyclone generated marine inundation events using beach ridge sediments.
The second application is the use of high resolution isotope records to assess whether tropicalcyclone (TC) activity over the past few decades has changed substantially compared to the past 1,500 years.
.....
We developed a new index (Cyclone Activity Index - CAI), which calibrates the high resolution, long term isotope record of TC activity against the instrumental TC record. The CAI allows for a direct comparison between the past and present, and enables an examination of TC climatology at higher temporal resolution and on annual, decadal or millennial scales simultaneously, without the need to interpolate or extrapolate to account for missing data, which is a problem with
the existing historical record of TCs. The CAI is the average accumulated energy expended over the TC season within range of the site, accounting for the number of days since genesis and the intensity and size of the storm relative to its distance from the site at each point along its track.

Our CAI for Australia shows that seasonal TC activity is at its lowest level since the year 500AD in Western Australia and 1400AD in Queensland and this decline in activity has been most pronounced since about 1960AD.
This reduction in activity reflects the forecasts of TC behaviour for the Australian region from a suite of the most recent global climate models except this decrease appears to be occurring many decades earlier than expected.


http://www.asiaoceania.org/aogs2014/doc/lecturers/SL/IG/IG2/IG2_Jonathan_Nott_Abs.pdf

So, tropical cyclone activity is currently the lowest since 500AD in WA and the lowest since 1400AD in Queensland with a "pronounced" reduction in activity since 1960.

Interestingly the James Cook Uni author states that this reduction in cyclone activity was predicted in the latest global climate models except that it is happening much sooner. Messrs Fraser, Brown, Milne, Gore etc don't appear to be aware of the predictions of the "suite of the most recent global climate models". Have they all been deceived? I must admit, the climate model predictions of fewer cyclones have not been widely headlined.
Edited by Strindberg, 4 Aug 2014, 04:00 PM.
Housing costs to Income broadly unchanged since 1994 - re-ratified here
The People of Australia have the highest median wealth in the World
2002-2012 10 year house price growth the SLOWEST since 1952-1962
"There are two kinds of people in this world: ones that fiddle around wondering whether a thing's right or wrong and guys like us." (Hugo to Gagin in Ride the Pink Horse)
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peter fraser
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Strindberg
4 Aug 2014, 03:17 PM
You must have been listening to Bob Brown and Christine Milne. It appears they are wrong, according to cyclone records.




http://www.asiaoceania.org/aogs2014/doc/lecturers/SL/IG/IG2/IG2_Jonathan_Nott_Abs.pdf

So, tropical cyclone activity is currently the lowest since 500AD in WA and the lowest since 1400AD in Queensland with a "pronounced" reduction in activity since 1960.

Interestingly the James Cook Uni author states that this reduction in cyclone activity was predicted in the latest global climate models except that it is happening much sooner. Messrs Fraser, Brown, Milne, Gore etc don't appear to be aware of the predictions of the "suite of the most recent global climate models". Have they all been deceived? I must admit, the climate model predictions of fewer cyclones have not been widely headlined.
The climatologists predicted fewer tropical cyclones and when their predictions come true those who usually mock their science side with them and claim a victory - just an amazing twist of logic.

Quote:
 
Our CAI for Australia shows that seasonal TC activity is at its lowest level since the year 500AD in
Western Australia and 1400AD in Queensland and this decline in activity has been most pronounced
since about 1960AD. This reduction in activity reflects the forecasts of TC behaviour for the
Australian region from a suite of the most recent global climate models
except this decrease appears
to be occurring many decades earlier than expected.


What you have missed is the change in intensity of those tropical cyclones.

Quote:
 
Global trends

Several recent studies published in leading journals - including these papers involving the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Columbia University, and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology - have all separately projected the frequency of tropical cyclones will decrease in the Australian region due to global climate change.

But while the number of cyclones is expected to decrease, the intensity of those cyclones that do occur is expected to increase.


http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/environment/weather/tropical-cyclone-frequency-falls-to-centurieslow-in-australia--but-will-the-lull-last-20140130-31o6d.html

Article by Jonathon Nott of James Cook University.

Shoulda read the full article instead of cherry picking a paragraph.

Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
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