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EIA sees a lot of US gas exports; U.S. shale gas and CSG in abundance headed for export
Topic Started: 30 Dec 2013, 11:49 PM (3,109 Views)
lulldapull
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Boy, the reality of U.S. becoming the next fukkin Saudi is getting a lot of press now. This has the potential to derail us.

On a positive note the outlook for gas & LNG professionals is set to skyrocket here in Australia, because of as usual a severe lack of qualified engineers & operators for gas plants. This bodes well for people like me and Bardon here.

http://www.lngworldnews.com/eia-growing-oil-gas-production-continues-to-reshape-u-s-energy-economy/

EIA sees a lot of US gas exports


The EEA has released its 2014 Annual Energy Outlook and it sees a lot of US gas:

EIA-Growing-Oil-Gas-Production-Continues-to-Reshape-U.S.-Energy-Economy

The Annual Energy Outlook 2014 Reference case released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) presents updated projections for U.S. energy markets through 2040.

“EIA’s updated Reference case shows that advanced technologies for crude oil and natural gas production are continuing to increase domestic supply and reshape the U.S. energy economy as well as expand the potential for U.S. natural gas exports,” said EIA Administrator Adam Sieminski. “Growing domestic hydrocarbon production is also reducing our net dependence on imported oil and benefiting the U.S. economy as natural-gas-intensive industries boost their output,” said Mr. Sieminski.

Some key findings:

Domestic production of oil and natural gas continues to grow.Domestic crude oil production increases sharply in the AEO2014 Reference case, with annual growth averaging 0.8 million barrels per day (MMbbl/d) through 2016, when domestic production comes close to the historical high of 9.6 MMbbl/d achieved in 1970. While domestic crude oil production is projected to level off and then slowly decline after 2020 in the Reference case, natural gas production grows steadily, with a 56% increase between 2012 and 2040, when production reaches 37.6 trillion cubic feet (Tcf). The full AEO2014 report, to be released this spring, will also consider alternative resource and technology scenarios, some with significantly higher long-term oil production than the Reference case.

Low natural gas prices boost natural gas-intensive industries.Industrial shipments grow at a 3.0% annual rate over the first 10 years of the projection and then slow to a 1.6% annual growth over the balance of the projection. Bulk chemicals and metals-based durables account for much of the increased growth in industrial shipments. Industrial shipments of bulk chemicals, which benefit from an increased supply of natural gas liquids, grow by 3.4% per year from 2012 to 2025, although the competitive advantage in bulk chemicals diminishes in the long term. Industrial natural gas consumption is projected to grow by 22% between 2012 and 2025.

Higher natural gas production also supports increased exports of both pipeline and liquefied natural gas (LNG). In addition to increases in domestic consumption in the industrial and electric power sectors, U.S. exports of natural gas also increase in the AEO2014 Reference case. U.S. exports of LNG increase to 3.5 Tcf before 2030 and remain at that level through 2040. Pipeline exports of U.S. natural gas to Mexico grow by 6% per year, from 0.6 Tcf in 2012 to 3.1 Tcf in 2040, and pipeline exports to Canada grow by 1.2% per year, from 1.0 Tcf in 2012 to 1.4 Tcf in 2040. Over the same period, U.S. pipeline imports from Canada fall by 30%, from 3.0 Tcf in 2012 to 2.1 Tcf in 2040, as more U.S. demand is met by domestic production.

That’s 70 million tonnes in LNG exports plus another 50 million tonnes of gas to Canada and Mexico, plus another 20 million tonnes in displaced imports from Canada that’ll have to go somewhere. North America is awash with gas and it’s going to end up in North Asia from 2018 onwards.

Until then, our own boom can enjoy the good times and BC has passed its milestone of shipping first gas from the seam to the plant:

BG Group is to begin commissioning its LNG processing “trains” on Curtis Island in Queensland after the project received its first coal-seam gas supplies from the Surat Basin.

It is the first of the three LNG gas export projects worth $70 billion scheduled to come into production, dramatically altering the shape of eastern state gas markets in the process.

…The first supply of gas to its Curtis Island plant was a “key milestone”, BG said.

“Delivery of first gas to the island marks the successful completion of a two-year task to lay more than 46,000 lengths of one-metre diameter steel pipe over 540km — the longest large-diameter buried pipeline in Australia,” BG said.

The arrival of first gas will enable commissioning work to begin on the first of two LNG production trains being developed by BG. The commissioning work is expected to begin in the first quarter of 2014.

Meanwhile, we need more gas plant operators or we’ll miss out on more investment, apparently:

Warnings of an emerging severe ­shortage of oil and gas plant operators in the next five years have sparked ­worries Australia could miss out on billions of dollars of investment because of a failure to invest in industry skills, training and productivity.

David Byers, head of the Australian Petroleum Production & Exploration Association, said Australia had to “aim much higher” on skills and training, especially particularly with the potential for another $180 billion in investment in the oil and gas industry over the next 20 years.

He said Australia needed to get serious about improving international competitiveness, increasing flexibility in the labour market and eliminating duplication in regulatory processes for major projects.

The report from the Australian Workforce and Productivity Agency, released on Monday, found resource construction jobs could slump as much as 90 per cent from a peak of more than 83,000 in 2014 to as few as 7700 by 2018 in the weakest economic scenario.

However, the demand for workers in the oil and gas industry is set to jump by 57 per cent to 61,212 in 2018, with 25 per cent of occupations set to be in short supply, including drillers, engineers and LNG plant operators.

Keith Spence, the spokesman for the agency, said the shortage exposed ­serious gaps that could compromise safety and reduce productivity.

With respect, if the industry can’t train it’s own people I’m not sure why the taxpayer should be doing it. And that’s the rub, really, this appeal is not about future possible investment. That’s already buggered. This is about rescuing the existing projects from the cost bubble they blew themselves. It will need to be done.

US LNG on a charge


From the AFR: http://www.afr.com/p/national/energy_industry_warns_shortage_risks_oRyQtAreNT1aQ4uf1KPHGM

Approvals for US liquefied natural gas exports are being granted more quickly than anticipated, reinforcing expectations of a “new dawn” in North American LNG, which could capture a fifth of the global market by the end of the decade, according to RBC Capital Markets’ Toronto-based LNG export Greg Pardy.

Speaking in Sydney Mr Pardy said while progress towards LNG exports in Canada was still at a relatively early stage, ventures were moving ahead rapidly on the US Gulf coast, with exports from the first US export terminal, Cheniere Energy’s Sabine Pass venture in Louisiana, set to reach Asian markets in 2016.

…“The US is exceeding our expectations dramatically in terms of the approval of LNG exports to non- Free Trade Agreement countries,” Mr Pardy told the Australian Financial Review.

…RBC is forecasting North American LNG exports will reach about 69 million tonnes a year (9.2 bcf/d), representing about 20 per cent of global supply. Of that total, the US is likely to take more than the 57 million tonnes a year share anticipated just a few months ago, Mr Pardy said.

…RBC is forecasting Chinese LNG demand will more than triple in the 2012-20 period, to reach 7 bcf/d by the end of the decade. But it is bearish on demand in the world’s largest market Japan, estimating that demand there will slide to 9.7 bcf/d by 2020 from the current peak of 11.7 bcf/d as nuclear power capacity resumes operation, up to an expected 40 per cent of capacity.

Yep, yep and yep. The next cab off the rank is Cameron LNG and then a string of other brownfields projects. Hard to know where the US approvals will stop but they will probably pause around 70mtpa. The problem is they can resume any time they like to take market share from their bloated Australian cousins.

Cost-out deflation ahead for Australian LNG. That or longer term limited output.
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newjez
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Has anyone googled lulldapull?

Makes for very interesting reading.
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
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Count du Monet
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The present form of technology is believed to be capable of increasing US output by 50%, this is hardly Saudi Arabia. I'd even doubt there are grounds for export since frakking needs improvement in safety standards and presently is environmentally risky.
The next trick of our glorious banks will be to charge us a fee for using net bank!!!
You are no longer customer, you are property!!!

Don't be SAUCY with me Bernaisse
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newjez
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Nice rant, scroll up a bit for the good bits. You make black panther look quite sane.

http://defence.pk/threads/ayman-al-zawahri-addresses-the-american-people.3303/#post-1563059
Edited by newjez, 31 Dec 2013, 02:57 AM.
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
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peter fraser
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newjez
31 Dec 2013, 12:24 AM
Has anyone googled lulldapull?

Makes for very interesting reading.

Seriously though it is just circumstantial - it could be a coincidence.

Names are not unique - I've met other people with my name.

Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
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lulldapull
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Count du Monet
31 Dec 2013, 01:17 AM
The present form of technology is believed to be capable of increasing US output by 50%, this is hardly Saudi Arabia. I'd even doubt there are grounds for export since frakking needs improvement in safety standards and presently is environmentally risky.
Count, but there seems to be a lot of confidence in the U.S. tact now. You can see it in full swing with them brushing aside Saudi's and Israeli's.

Well, at least it's a reasonable outlook on gas professionals employment here. Me and Bardon might be laughing our way to the banks. :oo:
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Count du Monet
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lulldapull
31 Dec 2013, 10:08 AM
Count, but there seems to be a lot of confidence in the U.S. tact now. You can see it in full swing with them brushing aside Saudi's and Israeli's.

Well, at least it's a reasonable outlook on gas professionals employment here. Me and Bardon might be laughing our way to the banks. :oo:
In terms of US requirements, yes there is an improvement. But it isn't some type of bonanza that means export. I knew of the technology when it was being tested 8 years ago and delivering results. But I never expected it to be exploited on the current scale until the 2020's. This rush to use a technology that needs refinement is going to prove many times more costly than the results are worth.

It certainly ended any ideas of mass export of LNG to the US a few years ago.
The next trick of our glorious banks will be to charge us a fee for using net bank!!!
You are no longer customer, you are property!!!

Don't be SAUCY with me Bernaisse
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lulldapull
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The fracking process has spectacularly failed here on our non permeable seams. It has worked reasonably well in the U.S. otherwise they wouldn't have this CSG/ Shale bonanza Count.

so Bardon would be making a killing over the next decade or so drilling and cracking in lots of new places.

This would mean a lot of new small scale unplanned work, no doubt, but it also negates a lot of the multi billion dollar CSG projects. They are simply not viable anymore. I think we'd be concentrating much more on the petro gas projects offshore in Gippsland/ Langhorne and in the Bass straits.
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Frank Castle
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Business As Usual

peter fraser
31 Dec 2013, 09:32 AM

Seriously though it is just circumstantial - it could be a coincidence.

Names are not unique - I've met other people with my name.
Maybe Peter - maybe not

Same claims made here
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lulldapull:
Have worked in Azerbaijan on oil projects and have had the opportunity to work and live in that country.

http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:2vwCZ7Mk9hMJ:www.iranmilitaryforum.net/world-events-news/azerbaijan-protests/5/%3Fwap2+&cd=19&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=au
Ignore posts by The Whole Truth · View Post · End Ignoring
The forum fuckwit goes RRRAAARRRGGHHhhh - But not a fuck was given..................by anyone.
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Pig Iron
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Bogan scum

Frank Castle
31 Dec 2013, 11:35 AM
great now he will disappear and come back under a new sock
I am the love child of Tony Abbott and Pauline Hanson
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