yes - the crisis is over although QE has yet to be wound down. Be patient.
The crisis is just getting started. 2014 is going to be a doozy. We have civil war brewing in Thailand, Ukraine and possibly Turkey. We have the Chinese shadow banking system being kept above water by constant liquidity injections from the PBOC. The participation rate has hardly changed in the US, margin debt is back at 2007 levels, new mortgages just hit a 13 year low, and the global financial markets sneeze every time the Fed hints it might roll back the free money. Yep, 2014 is going to be an exciting time.
Quote:
You clearly don't know what a reserve currency is. I'm referring to a currency used by the other countries in the world to settle their debts, I'm not talking about any reserves of currency.
Really? The Australian government uses US dollars to pay coupons on bonds that it issues? Wow, that really is news to me. How does this work? The Australian government issues an AUD denominated bond, but pays the coupons and the principal in USD? Can you tell me more about this process?
Quote:
You also don't understand this point. A nation such as Spain that issues bonds but does not issue it's own currency is in a very different position to a country like Australia who does issue it's own currency. Spain can experience capital flight, or potentially default on their debts because they can't pay, or see it's borrowing rates go sky high - Australia is almost immune to that assuming political leadership remains sound.
Oh, so once you buy AUD, you can never sell it, so you can never move your capital out of Australia. Sounds like a really good deal for us, I wonder why any foreign investor would participate?
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It might take you a while to appreciate that point. It does come as a shock to many people especially if they have been reading the propaganda from the gold lobby.
I don't read anything from the 'gold lobby'. I didn't know such a thing existed. Who do they lobby?
Strindberg
28 Dec 2013, 06:27 PM
China is increasing its US treasury holdings, not reducing.
In 2013 China had a $267B trade surplus with the US, yet they only increased their treasury holdings by $130B. What did they do with the other $137B?
The crisis is just getting started. 2014 is going to be a doozy. We have civil war brewing in Thailand, Ukraine and possibly Turkey. We have the Chinese shadow banking system being kept above water by constant liquidity injections from the PBOC. The participation rate has hardly changed in the US, margin debt is back at 2007 levels, new mortgages just hit a 13 year low, and the global financial markets sneeze every time the Fed hints it might roll back the free money. Yep, 2014 is going to be an exciting time.
Really? The Australian government uses US dollars to pay coupons on bonds that it issues? Wow, that really is news to me. How does this work? The Australian government issues an AUD denominated bond, but pays the coupons and the principal in USD? Can you tell me more about this process?
Oh, so once you buy AUD, you can never sell it, so you can never move your capital out of Australia. Sounds like a really good deal for us, I wonder why any foreign investor would participate?
I don't read anything from the 'gold lobby'. I didn't know such a thing existed. Who do they lobby? In 2013 China had a $267B trade surplus with the US, yet they only increased their treasury holdings by $130B. What did they do with the other $137B?
Hello dave, you've learnt nothing I see - that's fine by me.
Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
Oh my I am so glad you have come on this site Mr Hard truth - you have been absolutely led up the garden path by these charlatans who are telling you those huge porkie pies about the economy. Your little list above of all the dire dreadful predictions of the doom and gloom brigade is a load of balderdash, surely you must see by know how wrong these guys are and what abyssmal records they have.
2014 is likely to be a very good year,if you are not silly enough to pile all your money into gold or keep it in cash, and if folk make some well researched investments most people should do fine. I really hope you listen to some of the good common sense that is aired on this forum and that you manage to break free of the nonsense you have been fed by the likes of macrobusiness et al. They have cost folk a lot of money with their silly fear-mongering, I would lose them if I were you and come over and join us on the brighter side of the road.
peter fraser
28 Dec 2013, 11:38 PM
Hello dave, you've learnt nothing I see - that's fine by me.
0Oh No I have wasted all that time winding up that eejit--- and I thought I had found a new doomer to tease. Shucks
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993 The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
Hello dave, you've learnt nothing I see - that's fine by me.
Any time you want to tell me how governments settle their debts with the US dollar, just bump this thread and I will be here to learn.
I am also curious as to why foreign investors are unable to remove their capital from Australia. I would like to get some of that action, so if you are in a sharing mood, again, I am here to learn.
skamy
28 Dec 2013, 11:41 PM
Oh my I am so glad you have come on this site Mr Hard truth - you have been absolutely led up the garden path by these charlatans who are telling you those huge porkie pies about the economy.
Oh thank god you are here to set me straight.
Quote:
Your little list above of all the dire dreadful predictions of the doom and gloom brigade is a load of balderdash, surely you must see by know how wrong these guys are and what abyssmal records they have.
That sentence didn't make any sense. Maybe you could type slower, or remember to take your medication?
Quote:
2014 is likely to be a very good year,if you are not silly enough to pile all your money into gold or keep it in cash, and if folk make some well researched investments most people should do fine.
People like you I assume. What investments have you researched for 2014?
Quote:
I really hope you listen to some of the good common sense that is aired on this forum and that you manage to break free of the nonsense you have been fed by the likes of macrobusiness et al.
Is this the type of common sense that encourages people to invest in something the good folk of this forum already have large positions in?
Quote:
They have cost folk a lot of money with their silly fear-mongering, I would lose them if I were you and come over and join us on the brighter side of the road.
Well, mental illness does have it's upside if your hallucinations make you happy. Certainly it is a burden on those who bear the financial cost of care, but on your side of the road I suppose you don't give much thought to those people.
China has been diversifying their reserves into other currencies. But it is a huge pile of currency reserves whatever they are.
Total.....4.2 trillion dollars worth.
China has also been increasing the size of their SPR. The planned reserve will be around 600 million barrels, which at today's WTI of $100 is around $60B of oil reserves. It wouldn't surprise me at all if they expand that reserve further. As for the other 137B, I suspect most of it went to purchase oil.
Wouldn't sing from the rooftops until after Chinese New Year / 1st quarter.... Think it will be a telling period.
edit : im personally complexed as to which way it will go - but its certainly feeling like we are at a threshold point ... the sudden confidence in my fund manager and "market experts" has me worried !! hahahaha !!
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